Professor Leon F. Osborne, Jr. Director, Regional Weather Information Center

1. Panel 3: Technical Risks and ChallengesSymposium on Weather Information for Surface Transportation Professor Leon F. Osborne, Jr. Director, Regional Weather Information Center Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of North Dakota Grand Forks, North Dakota 5 December 2000

2. Decision Support Systems

3. Decision Support System Design Goals Efficient Effective Appropriate Affordable

4. Decisions System Interfaces: Risks & Challenges WIST-DSS Tailored Decision Support ----------------- filtering, fusion, presentation Actions The Surface Transportation System (Information Infrastructure) Communications Outcomes Other ITS Weather Services Environmental Sensor Stations *Adapted from FHWA STWDSR Overview

5. Risks and Challenges Weather Services Risk: Overstating Forecast Capability • Over dependence on models for final forecast product • Understanding limits to (mesoscale) model resolution • and accuracy as controlled by: • Model Physics • Initialization Challenge: Improve the science through R & D Example 1: Better models of land surface and atmosphere interactions Example 2: Improved model use in forecasting by use of expert-system methods

6. Risks and Challenges Environmental Sensor Stations • Challenge: Effecient Use in Weather Forecasting • Requires site-by-site understanding of a station’s purpose • Siting should involve both maintenance and meteorology • personnel • Sensor selection should be mission dependent • Routine quality control measures must be applied • Data should be in a consistent, published (open) format • Should not be limited to R/WIS sites, but inclusive of all • available mesonet data when possible

7. Sponsor Sponsor No. Stns. No. Stns. Year Year FSL-PROFS net Oklahoma 22 111 1981 1991 CIMIS 90 1982 INEL-ARL 30 1968 CDF 65 1985 Nevada Test Site DOE/ARL 21 1960 Washington-PAWS 56 1988 Hanford DoE/Battelle 29 1944 New Mexico 24 1983 AZMET 22 1986 LANL 6 1982 PRISMS 17 1991 LANL-Newnet 6 1994 COAGMET 30 1992 Sandia Laboratory 7 1995 WRCC-RAWS 662 1983 Army-White Sands 15 1988 HPCC-AWDN 130 1981 Bureau of Reclamation Agrimet (Pacific) 58 1983 Army-Ft. Huachuca 19 1988 Bureau of Reclamation Agrimet (Plains) 4 1989 Army-Yuma 7 1988 REINAS 12 1993 Army-Dugway 17 1984 Pacific Gas and Electric 13 1987 Army-Ft. Hunter-Liggett 9 1988 EPA/AIRS 151 1987 Army-Tooele 9 1988 Selected U.S. Mesonetworks

8. Risks and Challenges Tailored Decision Support ----------------- filtering, fusion, presentation Risk: Temptation for a ‘one-size fits all’ solution Diverse state maintenance methods and issues may require special focus and tailoring of decision support Challenge: To create an appropriate framework that is customizable without compromising the core capabilities of the DSS

9. Risks and Challenges Communications Challenge: Effective Exchange of Data & Coordination Information Availability of current road condition / status information Data sharing across communications firewalls Establishment and adoption of data communication standards (e.g. NTCIP, Data Dictionaries)

10. Risks and Challenges Other ITS Challenge: Sustaining an innovative approach to ITS National Labs Innovation State DOTs Universities Tomorrow’s ITS VAMS

11. Risks and Challenges Risk: A research program disguised as operations It is risky to attempt to support the needs of an operational environment with a program designed to conduct research. Challenge: Provide support for the important interests to both operations and research Clearly identify and communicate the intent of WIST-DSS activities during the development and implementation process

12. Risks and Challenges Challenge: Increase the awareness of surface transportation weather within the atmospheric sciences community FHWA and OFCM involvement is important Need for educational emphasis within undergraduate and graduate programs Interest is related to the level of research conducted (funding) Growth in awareness will take time

13. Risks and Challenges Challenge: Increase the awareness of surface transportation weather within the DOTs FHWA and OFCM involvement is important Need for outreach and training programs at all levels within the DOTs Interest is related to the level of weather services utilized Growth in awareness will take time

14. Recommendations • Facilitate a national R/WIS and Road Condition collection / reporting system • Establish / Expand educational and outreach programs to promote surface transportation weather • Maintain parallel efforts in research and operations of WIST-DSS technologies • Increase competitive funding for surface transportation weather research • Private Sector . . . Increase SBIR for weather • University . . . Continue COMET activities • Promote Public-Private partnering on competitive research funding

15. Summary Surface transportation weather has expanded rapidly in the past half decade by building on recent weather technologies not associated with surface transportation. Further growth will require a focus and commitment on solving problems of specific interest to surface transportation.