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Refining Objectives and Developing Scenarios

MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION RIVER BASIN PLANNING - MODULE 1 INTRODUCTION Can Tho, Vietnam 20 - 23 January 2003. Refining Objectives and Developing Scenarios. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOS When is a Basin Agreement Successful?.

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Refining Objectives and Developing Scenarios

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  1. MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION RIVER BASIN PLANNING - MODULE 1INTRODUCTIONCan Tho, Vietnam20 - 23 January 2003 Refining Objectives and Developing Scenarios

  2. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSWhen is a Basin Agreement Successful? • When we can achieve things together that we cannot achieve on our own. • When all parties believe they are receiving benefit from the agreement.

  3. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSThe Rules of Success in Basin Management • Basin agreements survive and succeed when they support ‘mutual self-interest’ • Sovereign rights are a vital matter, and must be respected • There is no progress until the most reluctant partner agrees • Progress will stall without mutual trust, respect and confidence

  4. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSThe Mekong Basin Development Plan The Inception Report shows that BDP is planned to include both: • A basin planning process; and • A short list of high priority projects agreed by the four governments. This presentation concentrates on the processes leading to the short list.

  5. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSTwo Key Development Questions For the various potential developments that are being proposed within the Mekong Basin, the planning process must answer two key questions: • Which development proposals are acceptable and which are unacceptable? • Which acceptable proposals are “better” than other acceptable proposals? The answer to both questions lies in the extent to which the proposals meet Basin objectives. There is no mandate to move beyond these.

  6. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSMRC Objectives are Mandatory butMay Be Too Broad for Detailed Planning • A significant task is to develop sub-objectives that are detailed enough to help answer at least the first key question. For example: • “minimising harmful effects of man-made activities” could include as sub-objectives: • all structures within designated rivers must provide fish passage; • net extractions of water are not to exceed 30% of long-term average flows; • irrigation developments should not alter the reliability of town water supplies from the same source.

  7. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSThe Minimum Necessary Sub-objectives • It is tempting to become too detailed in the initial broad planning stages. • Basin planning is about identifying preferable projects that meet basin objectives, not doing the detailed EIS needed for project planning. • Basin partners need to negotiate and agree on the smallest possible set of sub-objectives. • The sub-objectives need validating by testing them against possible scenarios. • Agreeing on sub-objectives is best done by means of a participatory process.

  8. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSWhat Do We Mean by a Scenario? • A scenario is a description of a specific set of future events and circumstances. It is not a forecast of the future, but rather is something that is foreseen as being possible. • We can, if necessary, attempt to estimate the likelihood or probability of occurrence of the scenario. • For BDP, the set of events and circumstances will be limited to those that involve the water resources of the Mekong Basin.

  9. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSWhy Create Scenarios? • Scenarios in BDP will used to study the results (benefits and costs) of: • Events we think will happen anyway (eg population growth, urbanisation etc) • Events that might happen (We can generally think of these as ‘risks’) • Events that we can make happen - such as creating development, building new structures, and operating existing structures. • These studies will enable evaluation of the desirability of possible water-based developments & will lead to evolution of development strategies.

  10. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOS‘Short Lists’ vs Development Strategies • As the MRC basin planning process proceeds, it may be found that currently identified development proposals are not necessarily the best possible from a basin wide view. ( Refer to Article 2) • Therefore, instead of a ‘short list’ of actual projects, the BDP may identify strategic directions in which further investigation should occur, and perhaps some development principles - eg all upriver dam development is to take account of mitigation measures needed in the lower river. • Or, there may be both lists and strategies.

  11. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSAn Undeveloped Sub-basin

  12. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSAll Possible Projects in Basin

  13. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSEvery Combination is a Scenario

  14. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSScenario Variations

  15. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSHow Do We Formulate Scenarios? • The elements of scenarios need to be chosen as factors that the basin simulation model will accept as inputs - that is, water-based factors. • The basin model has three modules: • Rainfall - runoff. Will compute hydrology changes brought about by catchment development etc • River flows. Will compute flow changes influenced by water demands (ie water extractions) • Floodplain hydraulics. Will compute flow and water depth changes due to levees etc

  16. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSHow Do We Choose Projects for Scenarios? • There are no fixed rules - but guidelines can help. • For initial trials in a basin such as the Mekong, it is suggested that projects be those already identified by national line agencies over the past 25 years, plus any identified by previous MRC consultants - eg the Mekong Basin Hydropower Strategy. • The reason for this is simply efficiency. To provide hydrology, water demand and floodplain intervention data, it is necessary to have at least some brief, pre-feasibility study done. BDP does not have the time to do its own studies.

  17. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSWhat Are the Next Steps?

  18. BASIN PLANNING - OBJECTIVES and SCENARIOSPlanning Skills and Judgement come from Actual ‘Hands-on’ Experience • Basin planning is a very practical activity. • Models do not always produce the results which the planners might anticipate: • projects turn out to have unexpected outcomes, • the river does not behave as you might imagine, and • the objectives might turn out to be of little help in ranking projects. • You will not discover this until you actually do some model runs. “Learn by doing”

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