The British Election of 2010

1. The British Election of 2010 The Impact on UK/US Relations

2. The Context of the Election • Like John Major in 1992 and 1997, Gordon Brown waited out his five year term. • The election took place with a looming economic crisis in terms of the UK budget deficit with major public spending cuts in the offing. • For past two years Brown facing almost inevitable defeat • Economic Problems • Personally Unpopular • But Conservatives needed record swing of votes and seats to win a majority (6.5%) • Doubts about David Cameron and drop in Tory lead Spring 2010 • Liberal Democrat vote the unknown factor.

3. The Campaign • Biggest new feature in the campaign – The TV debates • Presidentialized the contest? • Boosted the status of the Liberal Democratic leader Nick Clegg – especially the first debate • Liberal Democrat surge in the polls • Brown damaged by “bigoted woman” gaffe • Conservatives and Labour came back late in the campaign – typical pattern – and squeezed LDs

4. The Result Vote Share Seats • CON 36.1% (+3.8) • LAB 29.0% (-6.2) • LD 23.0% (+1) • OTH 11.9% • Swing • 5% From LAB to CON • CON 306 (+97) • LAB 258 (-91) • LD 57 (-5) • OTH 28 • 326 for Majority • Hung Parliament

5. UK Election Map 2010

6. Coalition Government • Hung parliament has only occurred at one other post-WWII election – February 1974 • But first half of the twentieth century minority or coalition governments more common than otherwise • Cameron interested in being in government because: • Tories out of power for 13 years • Minority government would be too unstable to administer tough economic medicine to deal with UK budget deficit • Coalition with the Liberal Democrats makes him less dependent on hardcore anti-EU Tory right • Clegg and his party might have preferred Labour but: • Chance at real power with Cabinet seats • Alliance with Labour still would not have reached 326 seats • “Coalition of the losers” • Adverse effect on Economy

7. The Deal • Liberal Democrats support cuts in public expenditure ($6 billion) • Conservatives jettison some tax reductions for well-off • Consensus on School and Health reform • Political Reform: • Referendum on AV as Westminster Voting System • House of Lords reform (proportional election) • Fixed term parliaments (55% no-confidence trigger) • Reduction in number of MPs and boundary changes for more equal constituencies • Overall pretty good deal for Cameron and the Tories • Can coalition survive likely popular backlash on hardline economic policies?

8. Implications for US:I • Conservatives traditionally regarded as pro-US but since 1945 most tensions with US occurred under Conservative PMs • Suez • Kennedy/Macmillan • Heath/Nixon • Major/Clinton • Conservatives equivocal at best on Iraq war • Liberal Democrats hostile to UK military commitments on Iraq and Afghanistan • Conservatives most skeptical of EU and opposed to further integration BUT Liberal Democrats almost Euro-Federalists! • Foreign Secretary Hague is a Conservative Atlanticist (note early visit to Washington) so Tory views likely to prevail in this area

9. Implications for US:II • US needs the new UK government to begin sorting out the country’s economic problems • Fear of spillover from financial meltdown that would negatively impact US economy (Greece x 10!) • Want stable UK government to support US in Afghanistan and play traditional bridge role to other EU nations • Defeat of Labour ends the Clinton/Blair “third way” era for center left parties. • Will Labour in opposition head in a more leftward anti-US direction in opposition as occurred in the 1980s?