SCENARIO : CONTINUED GROWTH TECHNOLOGY

1. SCENARIO: CONTINUED GROWTH TECHNOLOGY --Virtual Manoa-- October 23, 2008 Josh -- Lisa -- Reid -- William

2. Premises: • The rate of change over the next 50 years will accelerate. • Energy: Hawaii will develop a decentralized power grid capitalizing on wave, wind, geothermal, and solar. • Demographics: Hawaii’s population will have stabilized due, in part, to its limited physical size. While still centered on Oahu, Kauai and Hawaii will grow faster -- water and space plentiful; agricultural and energy production. • Climate change: In Hawaii, moderated by Ocean. Water level rise accommodated through relocating infrastructure inland and elevating architecture and transportation. Coastal zone flooding will provide for both transportation and aquaculture.

3. Technology • “Information Age” will still be growing in accordance with Moore's Law, creating new opportunities for industrial as well as social uses. Applications employing robotics and artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, nanotechnology, and new materials will be ubiquitous. • Hints at transcendence beyond the information age to a new paradigm will begin to have influence.

4. Intelligent Machines Extended/ Eternal Life Synthetic Life Repairing Manipulating DNA Personalized Drugs Human Cloning Instant pain relief Downloadable memories Complete digital recording or life Dream Control Underground cities Instant information Moving cities iAnything Holographic messaging Internet implant Language translation implant Quantum Computers Weather control Contact lens Displays Energy force fields Self washing clothing Artificial Black Holes So What’s Possible?

5. Traveling Faster and lighter Invisibility cloaks Self replicating machines Artificial Worm holes Personal Robots Exoskeletons Robot Partners Digital Money Cashless society Personal Advertising Mental Entertainment Paperless Society Space elevator Colonizing space Planetary Formation Orbital Stations Self driving cars Flying cars Teleportation Time Machine Flying Boots Ion propulsion Electromagnetic propulsion What’s possible cont…

6. Ascendance of Virtual Worlds • In 2008, Virtual Worlds (VW) focus on entertainment, gaming, and socialization as well as for providing a training venue (e.g., simulators, IBM's virtual campus, and Second Life).

7. Current barriers to total emersion are (1) the degree of perception that it is a "real" event; and (2) bandwidth (number of simultaneous interacting users). Greater sophistication in sensory input/output are rapidly evolving. • VWs are populated by over 50-million active users with increasing representation by women and minorities. The number of users that can interact simultaneously (i.e., as a group) will increase to over 500 by 2010. • Average VW users are online in VWs 18+ hours/week.

8. Virtual Reality • Shared Space • Immediacy • Interactivity • Persistence • Socializing • Gaming • Political Expression • Military Training

9. Virtual Socializing / Gaming • “MMORPG” • Massive Multiplayer Online Role Playing Games • Competitive Events • Strongly Influenced by Fantasy, Science Fiction, and Anime Genres of literature and Film. • Current role playing games: • Everquest, Lineage 2, and World of Warcraft

10. Political Expression • Virtual Worlds can serve as political forums • Political experiments • Current Example: • AgoraXchange

11. Virtual Education • What is now considered non-traditional “long distance” learning will be the norm, taking advantage of computer-based virtual campuses. • Technology will enable teaching methodologies that are today only just being envisioned and applied in experimental or prototype form. • Coupled with advances in neuroscience and educational psychology, VW education systems show great potential. • Whatever facilitates communication will flourish.

12. Premise of UH • By 2050, UH’s educational setting will have changed from a predominantly physical venue (i.e., the physical campus with its attendant architecture) to a largely virtual one.

14. Manoa will serve largely a social center and administrative headquarters (with recognition that the physical location of administrative function need not be located at Manoa).

15. Virtual Manoa Provides: • Opportunities to experiment with novel educational methods, designs and concepts. • Infinitely flexibility and adaptability. • Participation of essentially unlimited number of students. • Very low costs/student. Costs can be reduced through competitive global marketplace. • Instant global access; the physical location of the student, teachers, library, administration, and computer servers is irrelevant. Programming and tech support can be located anywhere with access to professional management and security.

16. Translation programs allowing participation of international students and faculty. • No physical barriers to students/faculty. • Library fully accessible. • Avatar (robotic) tutors. • Immersion in situational learning; location and scale become irrelevant. • Instantaneous assessment of achievement and other metrics aiding in identifying flaws quickly and cheaply. Curriculum changes, teaching methods, etc. can be adjusted accordingly.

17. Students select teaching styles and environments suitable for that individual’s temperament. For example, meet individually with an avatar for one-on-one mentoring; with a group in a smaller, classroom lecture format; or become involved in a game to learn skills. • Time of participation adaptable to each student’s individual schedule and learning speed. • Testing is uniform, less threatening and instructive rather than punitive. • Learning in VW environment would best prepare many students for eventual working in virtual environments.

18. Need for physical transportation becomes negligible. • VW setting would accommodate anyone, including older and younger students, providing easy access to high schools. • All communities have access to resources.

19. Architecture • Computer infrastructure can be located anywhere it is most efficient, secure, and accessible to technical support. • It may be advantageous to maintain UH management in Manoa (but…..why?) • Manoa campus supports some facility to allow students personal contact if needed. However, the total immersion into a virtual reality of an educational venue cannot be overstressed. • Those wishing to live in an educational community in Manoa could be encouraged, with the “physical” Manoa providing residence halls and venues for both formal and impromptu academic sessions.

20. Manoa's main function would be to serve as a social hub for the greater University and provide those services not available in a virtual setting, such as sports and some arts, including performance arts requiring physical presence (dance, ensemble musical performance, sculpture, etc.). Accordingly, the landscaping, architecture, and other features of the physical Manoa may best be designed to combine social and academic interaction and the arts.