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European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

Air Traffic Management Validations. Philippe DEBELS EUROCONTROL CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, Budapest Hungarian Aeronautical Research Workshop, 27-28 November 2007. European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation. Air Traffic Management Validations.

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European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

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  1. Air Traffic ManagementValidations Philippe DEBELS EUROCONTROL CEATS Research Development and Simulation centre, Budapest Hungarian Aeronautical Research Workshop, 27-28 November 2007 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

  2. Air Traffic Management Validations ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Air Traffic Management challenges • Possible solutions • Role of the CRDS • Co-operating with us

  3. Air Traffic Management challenges – 1.Capacity ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us Source: Statfor Medium-Term Forecast 2005-2011. Long-Term 2004-2025 • Traffic increase • Statistical Forecast • Traffic x 2 in next 20 years www.eurocontrol.int/statfor • Increase faster in Central Europe • ACARE Strategic Research Agenda: • 3 x more traffic 2000/2020 • 99% flights <15min; all weather ACARE: Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe www.acare4europe.com

  4. Air Traffic Management challenges – 2.Safety ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Relation between traffic and • accidents rate is quadratic: • If traffic x 2 (3) • Then risk of accident x 4 (x9) • If absolute # accident = constant • Then safety level x 4 (x9) What people perceive Accidents = Traffic x Accident Rate Public perceives not the accident rate (accidents/flight hours)! But the absolute number of accident (accidents/year)

  5. Air Traffic Management challenges – 3.Environment ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • EU commission: • Aviation = 3% of overall EU greenhouse gas emissions (but growing). • Advocates … activities that can help limit emissions from aviation, such as improving air traffic management and continuing efforts to remove legal obstacles to the taxation of jet fuel. • UK Government: • The (UK) government: … aviation in next round of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. • Aviation CO2 emissions x2 in ‘90s while those from rest of the economy fell. • Currently, aircraft produce about 5.5% of UK emissions. • Forecasts: could make up 25% of the UK's total contribution to global warming by 2030. • ACARE Strategic Research Agenda – Targets for 2020: • Fuel consumption: - 50% • CO2 emissions: - 50% (per passenger-km) • Perceived external noise: - 50% • NOx : - 80% Source: http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2005/2005-09-27-01.asp http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6056620.stm http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4287048.stm http://www.acare4europe.com/html/strategic.shtml http://www.aiaa.org/events/aners/Presentations/ANERS-Collin.pdf#search='atm%20strategic%20research%20agenda%20emissions

  6. Possible solutions – Role for the CRDS ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Possible solutions : • Route network optimisation • Additional sectors • Support tools for controllers • New technologies and concepts • Improved planning and co-ordination • But … • Need to be further developed and improved • Need to be tested and validated (safety) • Need to disseminate the knowledge 3 Pillars for CRDS

  7. 1. R&D Co-ordination ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us Focal point ATM R&D Central Europe • CRDS has limited resources for R&D ! • Develop own expertise • Act as a catalyst and concentrate on: • Issues with potential for wider application • Domains not yet covered by others • Trigger, stimulate and develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre in France, R&D Establishments, Industry, Universities, Military Academies, … in the region. Civil / Military Data Link F.A.B. F.A.B. Functional Airspace Block

  8. 2. Validation ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us Validation through simulations • Improve and Validate operational and technical concepts • Improve : • Translate concept in applicable working methods • Provide recommendations • Validate: • Provide information of performance to decision makers • Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity, Environment, . Economy • According to common standards • E-OCVM for validation methodology • ESARRs (2 and 4) : for Risk assessment and Risk mitigation • ISO Certification process initiated E-OCVM: European Operational Concept Validation Model ESARR: Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement

  9. 2. Validation ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us Validation through simulations • Model-Based Simulations (MBS): • Use a mathematical simulator • + : faster, large airspace, longer periods • - : human is simulated •  Capacity, Environment & Economy • Real-Time Simulations (RTS): • Simulate a “real” environment • + : Human participation (controller & pilot) • - : Costly and “labour intensive” •  Operability & Safety • 2001 – 2006 : 18 RTS and 12 MBS • 2007 : 5 RTS and 4 MBS + Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator  Capacity: typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year, depending on complexity

  10. 3. Support to Training ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us Support to Training • The CRDS will add an additional element to the regional simulation training capability in particular for training and familiarisation with advanced system features. • Support “Training of the Trainers” in the context of CEATS • In co-operation with the other ANSP training centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg), e.g. Data Link. • Familiarisation programme on ATC for non-ATC experts CEATS: Central European Air Traffic Services ANSP: Air Navigation Service Provide IANS: Institute for Air Navigation Services ATC: Air Traffic Control

  11. CRDS – Staff and Resources ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Staff • 25 staff • Experienced Air Traffic Controllers • Simulator Facilities • Real-Time with participation of ATCOs: • 26 Controllers Working Positions • 20 Pilot Working Positions • ASMT (Safety Monitoring Tool) Model-Based (Mathematical models) • RAMS Plus (En-Route and TMA) • TAAM (Total Airspace & AirportModeller) • LUCIAD (Visualisation) ATCO: Air Traffic Control Officer ASMT: Automatic Safety Monitoring Tool RAMS: Reorganised ATC Mathematical Simulator

  12. Future Simulations in Budapest ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • CRDS/CEATS Projects: • Multi Sector Planning (MESEC), Advanced Civil/Military Concept, … • Support Regional or National Projects • European Projects: • SESAR “Local” Validations together with ANSPs and … ? • EPISODE 3 (with Austrocontrol, HungaroControl and LPS Slovakia) • Link 2000+ project (www.eurocontrol.int/link2000) • CASCADE project (www.eurocontrol.int/cascade) • Regional and National Projects • Norway, Greece, Croatia • Austria, Hungary, Romania

  13. Future Simulations in Budapest ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Real-Time Simulations: • November/December 2006 : LINK 2000+ • Visitors’ Day: 07 December 2006 • February/March 2007 : CASCADE • Visitors’ Day: 13 March 2007 • April/May 2007 : CEATS Civil/Military • October 2007 : Dyn.Airspace.Mgt • November/December 2007 : LINK 2000+ • March, May, October 2007 : Familiarisations

  14. Co-operating with us ATM Challenges Possible solutions Role of the CRDS Co-operating with us • Research • Undergraduate students: • 2 .. 12 months traineeships • Doctoral students • Up to 3 years - research contracts • www.eurocontrol.int/eec/public/standard_page/student_opportunities.html • /www.eurocontrol.int/crds/public/standard_page/students.html • Validation (Simulations) • Participation in European projects: • Episode 3 (mid-term validation in support of SESAR) • CASCADE, LINK 2000, … • Prepare for SESAR Development phase !

  15. END Thank you • www.eurocontrol.int/crds

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