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Workshop program ideas and structure Enrico Zio

Workshop program ideas and structure Enrico Zio. The background. Is the current framework for risk assessment and management adequate for meeting the challenges we face?.

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Workshop program ideas and structure Enrico Zio

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  1. Workshop program ideas and structureEnrico Zio

  2. The background Is the current framework for risk assessment and management adequate for meeting the challenges we face? The risk assessment and risk management fields are challenged by a growing complexity and dimensionality, both with respect to the systems considered and the knowledge available for their characterization and modeling.

  3. The « floating » idea Strong scientific platform Reflections and discussions on foundational issues and concepts Risk assessment and Risk Management need to evolve

  4. The structure Operatively: development in working groups PART a) Main obstacles/challenges for development of strong scientific platform PART b): Initiatives/measures (two) to proceed

  5. Issues

  6. Issue 1: Uncertainty

  7. Issue for discussion 1 l PRA K = (Statistical) Data M =Frequentist Probability K = Beliefs M =Subjective Probability c

  8. Issue for discussion 1 Seeing beyond probabilistic risk assessment l “Bounded” Probabilistic Risk Analysis K = (Statistical) Data M =Frequentist Probability K = Beliefs M = Imprecise Probability RandomSets (D-S Theory) Possibilitytheory c

  9. Issue for discussion 1 l Seeing beyond probabilistic risk assessment K = (Statistical) Data M =Frequentist Probability PERFECT STORMS Resilience Precursors Signals Near misses BLACK SWANS K = Beliefs M = ? Defense in depth c Aven, Pate’-Cornell 2012 Design Basis Accidents

  10. Issue 2: Complexity

  11. Issue for discussion 2 Risk and vulnerability of critical infrastructures (e.g. electrical grid, transportation network etc.) which are complex systems and often interdependent, i.e. systems of systems (New England Complex Systems Institute, 2005)

  12. Systems of systems: external events risk assessment Safety of a critical plant, e.g., a nuclear power plant, exposed to risk from external events, e.g., earthquakes. System-of-Systems analysis of the interdependent infrastructures that support the critical plant.

  13. Obstacles/Challenges

  14. Obstacles/Challenges Lack of consensus on definitions (conceptual and operative) Anchoring on traditional concepts and methods Little permeability of different sectors No incentive from regulatory and industrial community

  15. Initiatives/Measures

  16. Initiatives/Measures Identification and characterization of interested/involved community (e.g.Technical Committee ESRA) Workshop Special issue Special session at ESREL conferences New formula of School as a moment of exchange, discussion, dissemination

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