Hypoxia Research and Management for Coastal Ecosystems

1. CSCOR’s National Hypoxia Programs Alan Lewitus Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research NOAA/NOS/NCCOS Briefing/Workshop on Narragansett Bay Hypoxia and Associated Issues URI Narragansett Bay Campus, 3 May 2012

2. CSCOR Mission • To lead the development of predictive, multi-disciplinary, coastal ecosystem-scale research to support sound management decisions • develops and improves predictive capabilities for managing the Nation's use of its coastal resources through competitive research programs. • supports efforts to translate the results of its research investments, and those of others, into accessible and useful information for coastal managers, planners, lawmakers, and the public to help balance the needs of economic growth with those of conserving resources.

3. Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystems and Hypoxia Assessment Program (NGOMEX) • characterize the magnitude and extent of the hypoxic zone; • develop quantitative models to predict the extent of the hypoxic zone given varying levels of nutrient inputs, physical forcing, and other factors that control hypoxia • develop quantitative models to determine the impacts of the hypoxic zone on ecologically and economically important living resources

4. 2008 Action Plan Coastal Goal Coastal Goal: Subject to the availability of additional resources, we strive to reduce or make significant progress toward reducing the five-year running average areal extent of the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone to less than 5,000 square kilometers by the year 2015 through implementation of…actions…to reduce the annual discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus into the Gulf.

5. NGOMEX Objective: characterize hypoxic zone • LUMCON 25+ year long-term monitoring led by N. Rabalais • Metric for Gulf Hypoxia Task Force Area (square miles) Action Plan Goal Year

6. Models Used for Management 20000 15000 Hypoxic Zone Area (km) 10000 Action Plan Goal 5000 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 N Load Reduction NGOMEX Objective: models on causes of hypoxia • Predictive models: • inform management goal-setting • monitor progress of management directives • validate benefit of conservation practices GULF OF MEXICO Model ensemble suggests a 35 - 45% reduction in N loads to meet Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan Goal Based on 3 NOAA-sponsored models, see Scavia et al. 2003, 2004

7. Objective: Models on Impacts of Hypoxia • Hypoxia is causing endocrine disruption and reproductive impairment Fecundity Oocyte>350 μm Hypoxic zone sites N1 N2 N3 C5 C6 C7 F3 F4 F5 Thomas and Rahman, Proceedings Royal Society B 2012

8. Coastal Hypoxia Research Program (CHRP) Provide research results and modeling tools which will be used by coastal resource managers to assess alternative management strategies for preventing or mitigating the impacts of hypoxia on coastal ecosystems .

9. Coastal Hypoxia Research Program (CHRP) Chesapeake Bay Scavia et al. Nutrient susceptibility of mid-Atl, SE Atl, and Gulf of Mexico estuaries. Green Bay Klump et al. Hypoxia response to nutrient inputs and climate change Kemp et al. Modeling hypoxia response to climate and nutrients Breitburg et al. Ecosystem response to shallow water hypoxia

10. Narragansett Bay CHRP ProjectsOviatt et al. Codiga et al. Relative contribution of various nitrogen pollution sources Chesapeake Bay Gulf of Mexico Narragansett Bay • Oviatt/Codiga: • Model development to advance understanding of causes of hypoxia - role of nutrient loading and circulation processs • Involvement of management community • Transition modeling tools to operations