1 / 28

Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Researc

Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Brought to you by, James A. Skurla,. ACE FORECASTER. x. How is the U.S economy doing?. x. How is the U.S economy doing?. U.S. ECONOMY.

nida
Download Presentation

Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Researc

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Economic Outlook 2006 Northeast Minnesota and Duluth Jim Skurla, Acting Director Bureau of Business and Economic Research Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  2. Brought to you by, James A. Skurla, Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  3. ACE FORECASTER Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  4. x How is the U.S economy doing? Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  5. x How is the U.S economy doing? Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  6. U.S. ECONOMY Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  7. Prices shot up from Katrina. Crude oil prices hit highs in summer 2005. U.S. ECONOMY % Source: David Lereah, chief economist for the National Realtors Association Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  8. U.S. ECONOMYGreenspan and the Fed’s interest rate raises . . . Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  9. U.S. ECONOMY. . . are putting downward pressure on housing prices Source: David Lereah, chief economist for the National Realtors Association Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  10. SOARING ENERGY PRICESexpected to remain high through ’06, weakening in ’07. Source: Energy Information Administration Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  11. How is the Minnesota economy doing? Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  12. Demographic Projections U.S., MN, Duluth U.S. • projected to reach 300 million this year • Three states — Florida, California and Texas — will account for nearly one-half of total U.S. population growth to 2030. MN • State Demographer says Minnesota will have . . . • net in-migration from other states and countries • older population Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  13. Demographic Projections (continued)MN, Duluth Source: Minnesota Population Projections 2000-2030, MN State Demographer, MN Planning Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  14. Minnesota Budget Forecast 2006 SURPLUS? millions Balance forecast for FY 2006-07. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $701 Buyback to school aid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $370 Required to complete buyback portion of school aid Buyback to property tax . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $331 Required for a partial buyback of the property tax recognition shift, reducing the recognition percentage from 48.6% to 10.8% Still needed to complete buyback. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -$94 Source: Minnesota Dept of Finance Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  15. $MN capital expenditures $897 million total when other bonds and cash are included.  http://www.governor.state.mn.us Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  16. Minnesota Economic Indicators Source: MN Dept of Finance ;Minneapolis Fed Reserve; Star Tribune Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  17. Minnesota and U.S. Nonfarm Employment Growth % Change Source: CES data, Global Insight, and MN DEED Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  18. How is the local Duluth economy doing? “The answer is blowin’ in the wind” Bob Dylan blowin’ in the wind? Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  19. Duluth-Superior MSA Employment Booming 90s! Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  20. Unemployment Rate Source: MN DEED Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  21. Duluth-Superior MSA Industry Employment 1995-2004 Source: BLS Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  22. High Growth/High Pay IndustriesProjected for Northeast Minnesota 2002-2012 employment growth higher than average annual salary higher than median at least 0.1% of total employment . . . Etc. Source: MN DEED Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  23. Region’s Top Industries • Mining • Wood and Paper Products • Shipping and Trans. • Health Care • Tourism 2006 Outlook: Taconite output remains steady • worldwide demand • weakening dollar • stable economy • high scrap prices NEW Mining construction and expansions proposed: NorthMet Mesabi Nugget Mintac Keewatin Taconite Minorca Mine Hibbing Taconite United Taconite North Shore Mining Source: UMD BBER, Duluth News Tribune, Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  24. Duluth’s Top Employers Major Employers: St. Mary’s/Duluth Clinic Benedictine Health U of M Duluth St. Luke’s Hospital Allete Canadian Nat. Railway Source: Matt Shoeppner (DEED) and Northland Connection Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  25. How’s Business in Duluth? NOTABLE ACTIVITY • Over $190 million in construction projects either under way or just completed in Duluth • Cirrus Design Expansion • Hospital District Expansion • Mining on the Range impact Source: UMD BBER and 2006 State of the City Address Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  26. Duluth Economy$280 Million in Unfunded Benefits to Retirees TASK FORCE SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS: Combine new health plan savings Put $26 million a year into a health account for 30 years Increase all utility rates 4 to 5% Cut the city's share of retiree health costs by 20% Source: Post Employment Health Care Benefits Task Force Final Report and Minnesota Public Radio Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  27. In short . . . Most economists believe economic growth will slow to around 3% by the 2nd half of 2006 • Higher fuel • Lower consumer spending • Slower real estate • Deficit drag However, Duluth may see jobs from mining projects on the Range, and export possibilities to China. Bureau of Business and Economic Research

  28. Follow these and other stories online with the Labovitz School’s Bureauwww.d.umn.edu/sbe/departments/bber/ Economic Impacts of PolyMet’s NorthMet Project (in progress) Alternatives to Petroleum Based Fuels for Marine Vessels (in progress) Economic Impact of Constructing and Operating an Integrated Gasification Power-Generation Facility on the Iron Range (pdf) Grand Marais Harbor Expansion Impact 2005 (pdf) Under, Over, and Mis-Matched Skills Employment in Northeast Minnesota, Including the Port Cities. March 2005, for the Minnesota Legislature, and MN DEED (pdf) Development Enterprise Network System Analysis 2005 (pdf) Mesaba Metals, LLC Impact Study 2003 (pdf) Tax Revenue Impacts and Marketing Northern Minnesota’s Iron Trail 2003 (pdf) Bureau of Business and Economic Research

More Related