The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects

1. The Coming Power of Wind: Perspectives and Prospects Soirée Technique, Dec 8th Session 4: Renewable Energy Sources Presented by Dr. Barry Rawn Delft University of Technology

2. 1 This talk is about: Prospects: substantial helpful effect on climate major component of energy security .. they are different. long term price stability re-think way we run power system Perspectives: policy makers and lawyers investors ..they are many. electricity grid and market operators

3. 2 Global: the “stabilization triangle” substantial helpful effect on climate European level: About 25-30% of efforts Image credit: cmi.princeton.edu 200 Gt, in next 50 years: Each wedge: GT/year Install 2TW of wind; provide about 5 PWh

4. 3 We’re coupling our energy system to climate patterns, and to weather patterns. Variable, but predictable. Regional-but renewable Image credit: The Atmosphere, 8th edition, Lutgens and Tarbuck, 8th edition, 2001

5. 4 Will climate change affect wind power projects? Michelangeli and Loukos, 2007 Rough reasoning anticipates future reduction in yield… ..detailed models confirm. Effect varies over globe; depends on local features; hard to predict. Lorenz and DeWeaver, 2007

6. Will wind power projects cause climate changes? wind energy conversion requires momentum transfer. 5

7. 6 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? Brand 2009 minimum safe distance (2-10% deficit): order of tens of kilometers the recovery distance (1% Deficit): hundreds of kilometers. Christiansen and Hasager 2005 Wake effect: becoming of legal interest Brand 2009

8. 7 Will wind power projects cause climate changes? Keith, 2004 Change global mean temperature? Detectable but negligible compared to anthropogenic forcing. Takel, 2011 Wind power affects crops, local weather? First indication: helpful or neutral; but research just starting

9. 8 Is there even that much wind power? Physical Potential Technical Potential Economic Potential Hoogwijk 2004

10. 9 Is there even that much wind power? Technical: 96 PWh/year, Economic: 53 PWh/year at 0.13 €/kWh 21 PWhr/year at 0.052 €/kWh versus 15 PWh/year global electricity consumption of global electricity consumption Hoogwijk 2004

11. 10 Is there even that much wind power? Many regions have resource exceeding consumption, costs differ. Hoogwijk 2004 3 PWh/year European electricity consumption in 2008:

12. 11 How much has been built? As of 2004, about 0.05% of the economic potential was developed As of 2010: perhaps 0.4%. Source: GWEC Growth rate of last 5 years: ~27% (doubles every ~3 years) Is there enough money to build it all? Global: 0.5T USD a year to meet 450 PPM (vs bond market 90 T USD) Europe: to meet EU targets, 30-65 billion a year (vs bond market 23 T,GDP of Europe: 16T) Trend in pension fund investment in infrastructure: estimated at 1 T a year

13. 12 Addressing investment risk: significant deployment barrier Samec 2011 Sources of risk: resource uncertainty, inflation, construction delay Mitigation instruments: wind derivatives, loan guarantees, construction insurance

14. 13 Generation mix: limits and changes in thinking 30% renewable energy scenario studied in North America: (image credits NREL) Total system load: wind coal nuclear Inflexible generation can impose minimum generation limit: Storage or transmission needed to avoid curtailment “Cycling” of units uncomfortable; Need emerges for new types

15. 14 Variability and Uncertainty Provision always existed for changes: both anticipated and unexpected. Image credit:Makarov et al, PNNL-19189, 2010 Madsen and Pinson: imm.dtu.dk, 2009 Wind power forecasts a common tool in control rooms.

16. 15 Example: Denmark First to pioneer controllable wind power, because forecasts not perfect. Image credit: upwind.eu “Soft Storm Transition” or “Storm Control”: Farm-level control using pitch Wind speed (m/s) Power production (MW) Image credit: upwind.eu 0 minutes 2 Image credit: Gijs van Kuik, TU Delft, DUWIND

17. 16 Example: Denmark Image credit: Energinet

18. 17 Switched Power Electronics Interfaces Synchronous Machine (traditional) simple, fixed, strong Power Electronic Interface Complex, flexible, relatively fragile

19. 18 Example: Ireland An island electric power system Must be mostly self-sufficient, even for short periods Contingency event: Loss of big generator, or introduction of big load Hirvonen 2003 In first instances: Need to use energy stored in system’s rotating masses

20. 19 70-80% System collapses immediately Example: Ireland 60-70% System splits in half, collapses. 2008/2009 range of operation Wind turbine rotors not forced to be synchronous: -> several related problems Eirgrid, All-Island TSO Facilitation of Renewables Studies, Final Study Report

21. 20 Example: Spain Electricity grid behaviour during a fault (lightening, tree, etc) generators can help by staying connected, in spite of voltage transient: formerly allowed disconnect level new requirement typical transient Image credit: RED Eléctrica España Bömer 2011

22. 21 Example: Spain Wind power production behaviour *before* “ride-through” requirement: nuclear sized dips. Image credit: RED Eléctrica España How are the worst situations avoided?

23. 22 !  Image credit: RED Eléctrica España

24. 23 Wrapping up: From all these perspectives, which ideas to take home ? We’re coupling our energy system to the climate in a new way. Variability and uncertainty in our power system: not a new thing, but changes can be expected Generation is always a mixture; wind power plants their own animal offering challenges but also benefits