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ERTAC Growth Approach - EGUs

ERTAC Growth Approach - EGUs. ERTAC-EGU Development Group - Webinar May 16, 2013 Robert Lopez, WI-DNR - Presenter. Basic Design Approach to Hourly Growth. Reliable, Regular and “ Current-but-Stable ” Data Open Access for Assumptions & Inputs

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ERTAC Growth Approach - EGUs

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  1. ERTAC Growth Approach - EGUs ERTAC-EGU Development Group - Webinar May 16, 2013 Robert Lopez, WI-DNR - Presenter

  2. Basic Design Approach to Hourly Growth • Reliable, Regular and “Current-but-Stable” Data • Open Access for Assumptions & Inputs • Easy adjustments (preprocessing) and sensitivities • Hourly sensitivity to growth forecasts • Sensitivity to system characteristics – fuel & unit-type • Sensitivity to Peak vs. Annual Trends • Simple QA and Troubleshooting

  3. Current Status for Growth Forecasts • Transitioned from AEO2010 to AEO2013 for core annual forecast – straightforward for EIA regions but different footprint than first round • For Peak Hours growth, transitioned first to NERC 2011 data, then in 2013 to NERC 2012 data – more complicated crosswalk – comparison of 10 yr peak demand (MW) and annual net load (Mwh) provides for an “increment” to core annual forecasts • Current peak data supports regional sensitivities, but not as a specific fuel/type sensitivity – depends now on annual trend as primary driver for fuel/type future

  4. Old EIA EMM(NEMS) Map - 2010

  5. IPM/NEEDS/ERTAC2010 Regions MapBeta Testing used this Regions Map as a starting Point - reqEMM Crosswalk to apply Rates

  6. Key Version 1.6/1.65 & 2.0 IssuesGrowth Rate Component • Current Model demands single regional footprint for annual & peak forecasts – v2 might use two separate footprints w/o crosswalk (see maps) • NERC footprint for regions has changed and will keep changing on the margin – depends on utility wholesale market participation (see maps) • Need for enhanced peak demand episode trend projection based on fuel & unit type – best may be trend projection from hourly CAMD data because reflects arms-length wholesale market impact

  7. EIA EMM(NEMS) Map – 2011, 2012, 2013& Update to ERTAC Core Regions - 2013

  8. ES&D 2012 – NERC Refined Assessment Regions (data will go back to 2009 & forecasts 10 yrs out – release of data expected late 2012)

  9. Annual Growth Issues - Trends • Multi-year trend toward greater efficiency combined with recession to diminish annual growth • Annual US trend shows core coal-to-gas, enhanced demand management and oil-to-gas transitions on the margin along with steadily increasing wind & solar resource • Demand Peak Trend projections show broad region picture of a slower peak growth compared to core annual growth – especially through next decade – but trends will reconverge • Monthly power data usage is consistent with annual trend & shows high sensitivity to marginal natural gas price • State-by-state trends are not 100% consistent though coal & oil seem on a long term slide & all but two/three states show major NG increase (consistent with 2012 history) • 2012 actual peaks did not exceed 2006/2007/2011 on average but used much more natural gas relative to coal

  10. Pennsylvania Trend Forecast – Monthly Generation

  11. Discussion Options - Growth • State and Fuel specific questions • Changing Maps Footprint • Core peak vs annual sensitivities • Likely projection (AEO 2014 & later) updates

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