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Market and Industry Perspectives on DLNA

Market and Industry Perspectives on DLNA. Jon Peddie Jon Peddie Research jon@jonpeddie.com. Jon Peddie Research. DLNA Promotes Seamless Interoperability Between CE and PC Devices in the Home. What is the Market Opportunity for DLNA?. It’s a part of a part of a part :

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Market and Industry Perspectives on DLNA

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  1. Market and Industry Perspectives on DLNA Jon Peddie Jon Peddie Research jon@jonpeddie.com

  2. Jon Peddie Research

  3. DLNA Promotes Seamless Interoperability Between CE and PC Devices in the Home

  4. What is the Market Opportunity for DLNA? It’s a part of a part of a part: • First there has to be a content delivery system (cable, satellite, OTA, CDs, DVDs, MP3s, etc.) • To share those sources, there has to be a network in the home. • Then there has to be a gateway hub or server (a caching proxy.) • And there has to be client devices.

  5. What’s the Market Potential?

  6. What’s the market Potential? Sources - Global Digital 365 Million DTV Households 2010 • Cable the dominant platform by 2010 • Broadband TV 16.8m by 2010(Informa Telecoms & Media) 413 million DSL subscribers (In-Stat) • Digital terrestrial TV - 38 million by 2010 • Satellite TV – 100 m subscribers by 2008 • Digital radio – 22 million by 2009 And the move to digital has only added to the excitement

  7. What’s the market Potential? Sources – Other than TV • Online music market to increase sevenfold by 2010 • music downloads and subscription revenues to top CD sales on the Web next year • Europeans will download five times more music to their mobile phones by 2010 • Digital mages captured, shared, and received will grow 24% from 2004 to 2009 • 111 million DSCs global demand in 2008 These devices are enchanting non-geeks

  8. Electrons just want to be free... There’s a natural affinity for digital devices to be connected (Kathleen Maher, 2003)

  9. What’s the market Potential? Networks • 74 million US homes have cable, 80% of them have 2+ STBs = 56 million coax home network systems in the US • Europe has nearly twice the number of TV households as North America (Informa Media Group) • 238 million TV households in Europe, compared with 126 million in North America by 2010 • The Asia-Pacific market contains 60% of the world's TV households.

  10. What’s the market Potential? Networks

  11. There’s going to plenty of sources …and lots of home networks to distribute the media

  12. But it won’t be easy to get them all connected …lots of obstacles and gotchas What are the obstacles?

  13. What are the obstacles? UPnP is only a start For connectivity, UPnP DLNA devices must incorporate: • 802.3i (10BaseT Ethernet) or • 802.3u (100BaseT Fast Ethernet), or • one of the Wi-Fi-certified 802.11 wireless standards (802.11a, b or g), • and/or a combination of these physical-layer interfaces.

  14. What are the obstacles? 802.11 No Panacea Blocked by • Space and water heaters • Refrigerators and ovens • Bathroom fixtures and plumbing • Aluminum 2x4 studs • Foil-backed installation • And even some windows However, WiFi is pretty good even for video – so DRM and stream support and interoperability are the real issues

  15. What are the obstacles? Software Links • 99% of non-computer home gadgets run Wind River, Linux, or proprietary CE control systems, and patching them to Microsoft is tough • Linux has its own set of stacks • Korea and China considering their own This ain’t no slam dunk

  16. What are the obstacles? DLNA who? Lost in the logos, or no show? Maybe its still early days, but no joy this holiday with no DLNA logo show

  17. What are the obstacles? DLNA – huh? • Couldn’t find logo’ed products from the promoters or members at large • Go to the Certified page, and click on the products - then look at an ad • Found one – Mediabolic’s DigiOn Before you can win the consumers, you better get the members on board

  18. What are the obstacles? Members? • And who are those members? • There a lot listed, and a conspicuous absence of some important companies • ADS • Apple • Belkin • Cisco • Creative Labs • Logitech • Monsoon • Netgear • Network Magic • Novell • Pluto • SlingBox?

  19. What are the obstacles? Not the only game in town • What about some of the other solutions? How does: • MoCA • NEMO • Mobile IPv6 • HomePNA • Home Plug • and AAA fit in? NEMO / Mobile IPv6 are at different levels of the OSI layer and not a competing solution Layer 1 and max 3 – will support UPnP as they are all “Ethernet Authentication Authorization Accounting – and there’s another A: Auditing plus a C Charging; all is somewhat related to MobileIP V6 and NEMO • DLNA has a “special liaison” group. • Don’t tell me – tell the world

  20. What are the obstacles? DLNA is Part of the Solution • DLNA is mainly residing in the levels 3 and 4 (IP / TCP and UDP) plus some level 5 and 6 work in conjunction with XML and SOAP to implement eventing and control. • UPnP is so open and flexible that you can have devices that are compliant with UPnP spec • but can't work together because their set of supported protocols or content formats don't overlap.   • DLNA tries to rein this is a bit and mandate common protocols & formats to guarantee baseline compatibility.   • It also brings other technologies into the mix that are required for a system solution.    

  21. What are the obstacles? Who Bolts it Together? • Is Joe six-pack or my aunt supposed to build the home network? • How about getting • CEDIA • NASBA • NSCA • PARA, and other system installers and integrators on board? • DLNA needs to exhibit at Integrated Systems Europe 2007, Europe’s AV and Electronic Systems Integration showcase • And what about fringe thinks like MythTV?

  22. Summary • DLNA was founded 3 years ago • Global home networking will grow from 35 million homes in 2004 to over 160 million by 2010. • The number of network-capable devices will increase 108 million today to one billion Internet and LAN-friendly gadgets in 2010 • Time is not on your side – and after 3 years DLNA logos on real products are very hard to find.

  23. Summary • DLNA is the best shot at pulling this maze together • There are some great member companies • – some important ones are missing • Word is not getting out to the users • Installation is critical • You’ve got a good start, now kick it up a notch

  24. Thank you Jon Peddie Research Jon@jonpeddie.com

  25. About the rollout of IPTV- It is finally gaining critical mass and raising a slew of issues for service providers. •  WAN interfaces are in a flux - FTTP and FTTH are the obvious choices, but ADSL2+ and VDSL are also IPTV-capable • LAN choices are even more complex. A typical US household has 3.5 TVs and these are not wired with Ethernet. WiFi is simply not capable of reliably handling multiple HDTV streams. Technologies such as MoCA and HomePlug are being evaluated along with HPNA and 802.11n. • If IPTV merely copies the multi-channel service offered by cable and satellite, it will become a price war leaving room for very little profit and potential to recover the cost of fiber and CPE deployment.  How do service providers layer on value added services (both data and video) to make their pipe different from the competition? • In a world where every house is capable of 20-30 (or more) Mbps bandwidth, is there a role for in-home storage? If so, will this be a PC? Is there an opportunity for service providers to create strategic value in this storage?

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