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C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear

C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear. By Floyd Ciruli Data Sponsored by Economic Development Council of Colorado November 2007. Ciruli Associates Polls and Election Results Denver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007. Denver Voters Support the Package.

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C olorado: B attleground S tate in P residential Y ear

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  1. Colorado: Battleground State in Presidential Year By Floyd Ciruli Data Sponsored by Economic Development Council of Colorado November 2007 Ciruli Associates

  2. Ciruli Associates Polls and Election ResultsDenver Bonds and Revenue Fund - 2007 Denver Voters Support the Package Sept. 10 Oct. 10 Nov. 6 PollPollResults 1A Maintenance fund 71% 63% 54% 1B Health bond 76 71 61 1C Library bond 66 63 60 1D Streets bond 82 71 67 1E Parks bond 66 61 61 1F Public buildings bond 64 55 53 1G Cultural buildings bond 65 61 55 1H BCH/DMNS bond 56 56 52 1I Public safety bond 74 68 63 Mean 68.9 63.2 58.4 Ciruli Associates 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007

  3. Slow Return ofDenver Mail-back Election Ballots • 28,000 ballots arrive last 2 days Ballots Returned DateCumulative Saturday, Oct. 13 1st ballots arrive Monday, Oct. 22 6,976 Monday, Oct. 29 25,132 Monday, Nov. 5 65,478 Tuesday, Nov. 6 93,684 Ciruli Associates 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007

  4. Mood of Electorate • Colorado voters - state optimism; National voters - national pessimism ColoradoU.S. Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 LA Times/Bloomberg, N1037, 2007 Questions: Generally, would you say things in Colorado are going in the right direction or do you feel things here have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track? Ciruli Associates 2007

  5. Economic Slowdown • National economy “getting worse” • Colorado mostly “the same” Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Questions: How about the state economy over the next year, do you think the state economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same? Thinking about the national economy over the next year, do you think the national economy will be getting better, getting worse or staying the same? Ciruli Associates 2007

  6. Job Performance ofPresident and Governor • 2006 approve Bush – 40%, Owens – 60% • U.S. Bush – 32%, Gallup, Nov. 2007 Rate the performance of Ritter…? BushRitter Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job President George W. Bush is doing? Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado? Ciruli Associates 2007

  7. Ritter and Partisan Approval • In September, Ritter received considerable Republican and unaffiliated approval Rate the performance of Ritter…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Ritter is handling his job as governor of Colorado? Ciruli Associates 2007

  8. The Terminator Becomes the HulkPolitics and Businesses Go Green • Schwarzenegger – Time Magazine cover: “He’s become a global salesman for the war on carbon.” • Ritter – The Colorado Promise: “Lead Colorado toward self-sufficiency by promoting alternative energy, encouraging cleaner ways of extracting and using fossil fuels, and rewarding efficiency and conservation.” • Hickenlooper – Climate Action Panel and Plan: “Smart choices on energy use, grow economy, foster environmental health, leave legacy of sustainability.” • Xcel – Second year on Dow Jones Sustainability Index for North America: Richard Kelly – “Commitment to environmental performance and social responsibility.” Ciruli Associates 2007

  9. Vote for U.S. SenateSchaffer vs. Udall • October 2006 Ritter – 43%, Beauprez – 33% Who do you support…? Bob Shaffer Mark Udall Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: U.S. Senator Wayne Allard has announced he will not seek re-election in 2008. There are currently two candidates who are running or considering running for the U.S. Senate. If you had to vote today for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Mark Udall, the Democrat, or Bob Schaffer, the Republican, or some other candidate? [Rotated] Ciruli Associates 2007

  10. Udall and SchafferSupport Among Partisans • 135,000 more registered Republicans Who do you support…? UdallSchaffer Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Note: Aug. 15, 2007 registration: 998,897 Republicans, 860,407 Democrat and 967,853 unaffiliated Ciruli Associates 2007

  11. Second Congressional District Money • Colorado has Top Three Fundraisers in Country • Democrats 7 to 3 in Top 10 • Jared Polis $828,000 • Joan Fitz Gerald 624,000 • Chris Lauzen (R) 546,000 • (Hastert) • Bill Foster (D) 541,000 • (Hastert) • Will Shafroth 509,000 CQ, Nov. 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007

  12. Colorado Presidential Politics • Clinton: 52% favorable, 45% unfavorable, Gallup 2007 Who will you vote for…? Fred Thompson Hillary Clinton DemocratColo.USRepublicanColo.US Hillary Clinton 29% 48% Barack Obama 23 21 John Edwards 23 12 Bill Richardson 5 2 Dennis Kucinich 3 4 Joe Biden 1 2 Chris Dodd 1 1 Don’t know 15 9 Fred Thompson 27% 19% Rudy Giuliani 19 28 John McCain 11 13 Mitt Romney 8 12 Tom Tancredo 7 2 Mike Huckabee 5 10 Ron Paul 1 5 Don’t know 16 8 Ciruli Associates, Dem. N174, Rep. N212, 2007 Gallup, Nov. 2007 Question: Colorado does not have a presidential primary. But if a (Republican/Democratic) primary for president were being held today in Colorado, as I read the following candidate names, please tell me who you would vote for? [Rotated] Ciruli Associates 2007

  13. Early States and Colorado • Colorado compared to early primary/caucus states New IndicatorIowaHampshireNevadaColorado Population growth, 2% 6% 24% 10% 2000-2006 to 3.0 mil to 1.3 mil to 2.5 mil to 4.7 mil Growth in Hispanics 115,000 30,000 610,000 926,000 Membership in unions 11% 10% 15% 9% Democratic Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Front-runner 1 pts Ahead 13 pts ahead 23 pts ahead 6 pts ahead Republican Romney Romney Giuliani Thompson Front-runner 2 pts ahead 14 pts ahead 8 pts ahead 8 pts ahead Wall St. Journal U.S. Census RCP, Nov. 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007

  14. Colorado Becomes More Competitive,But Still Republican Tilt Colorado National Republican Republican Republican Candidate Presidential Presidential and DateAverageAverage 1980-1988 58% 56% Reagan/Bush I 1992-1996 41% 39% Bush I/Dole 2000-2004 52% 49% Bush II/Bush II 2008 ? ? ? Almanac of American Politics Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Ciruli Associates 2007

  15. Top Issue for Governorand Legislature to Address • Immigration on top, health care moves second, war appears? What is your top issue for governor and legislature…? 20072006US Immigration 26% 28% 9% Health care price/accessibility 15 8 13 Education/funding 11 20 4 Transportation 7 6 -- Economy 6 11 22 Tax burdens 6 5 -- Education reform 6 1 -- Environment 4 4 1 Growth 4 3 -- War 4 -- 33 Water shortage/supply 2 4 -- Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Ciruli Associates, N500, 2006 Gallup, Oct. 2007 Question: What is the top issue you want the governor and state legislature to address? [Multiple answers] Ciruli Associates 2007

  16. Important State Policies to Competefor Jobs and Maintain Strong Economy • Water, education and transportation critical to jobs/economy Is it important Colorado has…? Ciruli Associates, N504, June 2007 Question: Thinking about Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy, as I read the following list of public policy issues, please tell me if you believe the issue is very important, somewhat important, not very important or not at all important to Colorado’s ability to compete for jobs and maintain a strong economy. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated] Ciruli Associates 2007

  17. Amending Colorado’s Constitution • Slim majority support making harder – 53% • Sample, wording and view of change Should it be harder to change the Constitution…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: The Colorado Constitution is eight times as long as the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Constitution is one of the easiest among the states to amend by the initiative process and only requires the same number of signatures as it does to pass a simple state statute by initiative. Some citizens believe it is too easy to change the Colorado Constitution and it should be harder to amend the state constitution. Others believe the rules to amend the state constitution are working and should not be made harder. Do you believe it should be harder to amend the Colorado Constitution or remain the same? Ciruli Associates 2007

  18. New Rules to Amend the Constitution • Should be regional representation Should the rules be changed…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: As I read the following list of ideas to make it more difficult to amend the state constitution than it is to approve a new state statute, please tell me if you definitely support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or definitely oppose it. If you don’t have a view, just say so. [Rotated] Ciruli Associates 2007

  19. State TABOR “Time-Out” • No urgency, no need identified Support a future “time-out”…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: In 2005, there was a proposal on the ballot, Referendum C, that provided for a 5-year “time-out” for TABOR refunds. It allows the state to keep all the tax dollars it collects for five years. The money was pledged to be used for education, transportation and health care. There may be a future ballot initiative to extend the TABOR “time out” for five more years, or until 2015. As of today, would you support or oppose extending the TABOR “time out” and letting the state keep and spend all the revenue it collects for five more years until 2015? Ciruli Associates 2007

  20. Colorado Political Leader Ratings • Ritter and Hickenlooper dominate the landscape • State officials more popular than federal • Udall and Schaffer close Rate the politician very or somewhat favorable…? Ciruli Associates, N504, 2007 Question: Let me ask you your rating of local and national political leaders. As I read the following list of political leaders, please tell me your impression of each one as very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable. If you aren’t familiar with a name, or don’t have an opinion, just say so. [Rotated] Ciruli Associates 2007

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