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Groundwater as a Statewide Resource

Groundwater as a Statewide Resource. Professor Richard E. Howitt Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Davis Professor Jay R. Lund Civil & Environmental Engineering, UC Davis. Dr. Marion W. Jenkins Andrew J. Draper Matthew D. Davis Kenneth W. Kirby Kristen B. Ward Brian J. Van Lienden

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Groundwater as a Statewide Resource

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  1. Groundwater as a Statewide Resource Professor Richard E. Howitt Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Davis Professor Jay R. Lund Civil & Environmental Engineering, UC Davis

  2. Dr. Marion W. Jenkins Andrew J. Draper Matthew D. Davis Kenneth W. Kirby Kristen B. Ward Brian J. Van Lienden Brad D. Newlin Pia M. Grimes Jennifer L. Cordua Siwa M. Msangi Real work done by

  3. State of California Resources Agency National Science Foundation US Environmental Protection Agency A Study Funded by

  4. 1) Groundwater’s statewide importance 2) Some questions 3) Why Economics? 4) Economic values for water use 5) CALVIN statewide model 6) Some early groundwater results 7) Conclusions and ongoing work... Overview

  5. Is Groundwater Important? • 30-40% of California’s off-stream supplies in average years • More groundwater use in dry years • Total storage capacity = 850 MAF

  6. Major Groundwater Areas • Sacramento Valley • San Joaquin Valley • Tulare Basin • Salinas Valley • South Coast

  7. Major State Groundwater Issues 1. Managing Conjunctive Use 2. Groundwater Mining 3. Recharge and Surface Activities

  8. Some Questions

  9. Conjunctive Use? 1. Promising locations? 2. Local Control and Coordination? 3. Operating Coordination? 4. Statewide Coordination?

  10. Groundwater Mining? 1. Balancing short and long-term benefits and costs? 2. Economic use of mined water? 3. Effects of actions statewide on local groundwater mining?

  11. Recharge and Surface Activities? 1. Agricultural return flows? 2. Urban return flows? 3. Stream-aquifer interaction?

  12. Why Economics? “When the well’s dry, we know the worth of water.” Benjamin Franklin (1746), Poor Richard’s Almanac.

  13. Economic Values for Water • Willingness to pay • Agricultural • Urban • Environmental

  14. Agricultural Water Use Values • Economic value of water to farmers • SWAP model • 24 Regions • Values by month

  15. Based on CVPM model Expanded to include entire state Monthly water decisions More detailed production decisions Agricultural Production Model - SWAP

  16. Available acreage, water, technology Production function for each crop Prices and costs Observed farm data Agricultural Inputs

  17. Agricultural Water Use Values July 70,000 June August 60,000 50,000 March Benefits ($ 000) 40,000 May 3,000 30,000 October April 2,000 February 20,000 January 1,000 10,000 September 0 5 10 15 October 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Deliveries (taf)

  18. Residential demand curves to estimate value of water use Lost production survey to estimate value of industrial water use Urban Demand Model

  19. 2020 demands Industrial and residential Observed residential demand curve Industrial production lost 1995 retail water prices Urban Inputs

  20. Monthly values of water 20 Urban regions Urban Outputs

  21. Urban Cost of Shortage Curves

  22. CALVIN An Economic-Engineering Optimization Model for California’s Water Supplies

  23. What is CALVIN? • Entire inter-tied California water system • Surface and groundwater systems • Prescribes monthly system operation • Based on economic benefits • Maximizes economic objectives

  24. Ag Inputs Urban Inputs SWAP Model Urban Demand Model Input Databases CALVIN Optimization Results Data Flow

  25. Optimization vs Simulation • Optimization - What’s best? • What water operations and allocations give the best performance? • Simulation - What if? • What is performance givena setof water operation and allocation rules?

  26. Optimization Components

  27. Optimization vs Simulation? • Should be used together • Optimization needs more simplification • Provides economic information not available from simulation • Promising solutions for detailed study

  28. CALVIN vs Other Models • Other models like DWRSIM, PROSIM, and CVGSM are simulation models • CALVIN is an optimization model

  29. CALVIN and Other Models

  30. CALVIN’s Innovations • 1) Groundwater and Surface Water • 2) Statewide model • 3) Optimization model • 4) Economic perspective and values • 5) Data - model management • 6) New management options

  31. Model Schematic • Over 1,200 spatial elements • 56 Surface reservoirs • 38 Ground water reservoirs • 47 Agricultural regions • 20 Urban demand regions • 600+ Conveyance Links

  32. Schematic Transparencies Here

  33. Model Inputs • Agricultural water values • Urban water values • Hydrology: Surface & ground water • Facility capacities • Operating costs • Environmental Flow Constraints • Policy Constraints

  34. Hydrology Inputs • 1921 - 1993 historical period • Monthly inflows • Surface inflows from DWR and • USBR data • Groundwater from CVGSM and • local studies

  35. CALVIN Represents Groundwater • 1921 - 1993 historical period • 38 Groundwater reservoirs • Pumping and recharge decisions • Fixed interbasin flows, inflows, and • losses • Calibrated to CVGSM and • local studies

  36. CALVIN’s Engine • Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Prescriptive Reservoir Model (HEC-PRM) • A data-driven network flow programming model

  37. CALVIN and Groundwater • Some very preliminary results • Semi-calibrated model run • Some ideas • Don’t trust these numbers.

  38. Mojave Groundwater

  39. Mojave Flows

  40. Mojave Flows

  41. What does this show? • Groundwater can serve both seasonal and drought demands. • “Optimized” groundwater doesn’t necessarily drain basins. • External inflows and outflows have economic value statewide.

  42. MWD Area Groundwater

  43. MWD Area Groundwater

  44. Long-Term Storage

  45. So what? • Values of storage capacity and reach. • Aquifer suited for drought storage. • Groundwater mining has some economic value. • Groundwater coordinated with other supplies and demands.

  46. Conclusions • Groundwater is a statewide resource. • Coordination is important. • Economics and Markets can help us better employ groundwater. • Optimization models can suggest promising solutions.

  47. Running model to working model Policy and capacity alternatives Database & tool development Much left to do... Ongoing Efforts

  48. More Information ... • Web site: cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN • Workshop: Friday, Sept. 24, 10am-3pm UC Davis Campus, 1120 Bainer Hall

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