Hugo Denier van der Gon & Tinus Pulles

1. PM update EU 2000 PM2.5 Inventory project Hugo Denier van der Gon & Tinus Pulles Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections' (TFEIP) Expert Panel on Agriculture and Nature, Průhonice, 26 April 2006

2. Outline • Background of the project • Approach • Expected results • Time table • Discussion points

3. Background The European Commission • is preparing for a revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive in 2006. - NEC establishes national limits on the emission that can be emitted in a particular target year • considers introducing national emission ceilings for PM2.5. To enable this, an accurate emission inventory of primary PM2.5 in the 25 EU Member States, “acceding countries” (Bulgaria, Romania) and “Candidate Countries“ (Croatia, Turkey, FYR of Macedonia) is needed. Consortium • TNO (NL, lead organisation) • NETCEN / AEAT (UK) • IVL (SW) Related project: PM2.5 Guidebook update commissioned by EC / DG Env.

4. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach: Build Generalized Inventory in relational database structure TNO Emissions Assessment Model TEAM • To improve transparency & direct link to Guidebook development • Allowing identification of SNAP technologies and NFR sector codes • “Select_Techn” links Activity to Technology allowing country-specific EFs • Easy transformation of the data to other formats (e.g. RAINS)

5. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID IEA Energy Stats • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach:First order draft inventory Derived from the CEPMEIP study

6. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach:First order draft inventory and uncertainty analysis • Key Source analysis • Monte Carlo simulation to identify • the uncertainties for each country • the most important contributions to this uncertainty • Objective • direct the national experts attention to the major problems

7. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach:Liaison with ”Guidebook project” and TFEIP co-chairs

8. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach:Consultation with national experts

9. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value Approach:Second order draft based on comments & additional information of national experts Including a second draft • Key source analysis • Uncertainty • Report, describing the inventory Review of 2nd O Draft, workshop & screening result in Final PM2.5 inventory One day workshop ?

10. Expected result • EU25 wide PM2.5 Emission Inventory that is: • Transparent • Comparable • Consistent • Complete • Accurate • Provides all necessary information on key sources and uncertainties • Can be used to develop emission ceilings

11. Select_Techn • Activity_ID • Technology_ID Technologies • Penetration • Technology_ID • Description Activities EmissionFactors • Activity_ID • EF_ID • Sector • Technology_ID • Location • Pollutant • Time • EF-Value • AR-Value For each NFR and fuel Inventory data for RAINS IIASA’s NFR to RAINS link table The expected resultthe EU25 PM2.5 Inventory and the RAINS model

12. Time line 2006 • March / April • Consultation with TFEIP expert panels • Preparation of first order draft activity data done emission factors in progress Pre-first order ready

14. Time line 2006 • March / April • Consultation with TFEIP expert panels • Preparation of first order draft activity data done emission factors in progress • May / June / July • Consultation with National Experts • July / August • Preparation of second order draft • September / October • Discussion of Second order draft

15. What should be included in the inventory? “ All emissions where the hand of man is involved” PM10 = PM2.5 + PM2.5-10 - but do we know the split? • For combustion processes good defaults available. • For all non-combustion processes with PM2.5 fraction is 0-80% of PM10 we have a poor understanding. Research focus has been PM10, too little and possibly not applicable data for PM2.5 (e.g. the US situation may not apply). • Excluded resuspension – cannot exclude arable farming • Examples of uncertain sources: handling of bulk materials, construction sites, diffuse industrial emissions, agricultural management, wind blown dust from arable farming […….In the literature the PM2.5 fraction in PM10 soil varies from 0 – 50%] • Here to introduce & pick up the “state of the art” and/or consensus concerning agricultural PM emissions – for what is lacking we will make a proposition

16. Thank you for your attention! More info, remarks? Hugo.deniervandergon@tno.nl Tinus.pulles@tno.nl