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2003 Moisture Outlook

2003 Moisture Outlook. Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu. Through 1999. Through 1999. Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep). Reservoir Storage.

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2003 Moisture Outlook

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  1. 2003 Moisture Outlook Nolan Doesken and Roger Pielke, Sr. Colorado Climate Center Prepared by Tara Green and Odie Bliss http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu

  2. Through 1999

  3. Through 1999

  4. Fort Collins Total Water Year Precipitation (Oct-Sep)

  5. Reservoir Storage Provisional Data Provided by NRCS

  6. Colorado Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002 From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

  7. Wyoming Statewide Annual Temperatures through 2002 From NOAA, National Climatic Data Center

  8. Summer Temperatures Fort Collins, 1889-2002

  9. Where do we stand now?

  10. Temperature - Water Year 2003

  11. Water Year 2003 – ColoradoUPPER SAN JUAN SNOTEL

  12. Water Year 2003– ColoradoJOE WRIGHT SNOTEL

  13. Water Year 2003– WyomingPower River SNOTEL

  14. Data from USDA/NRCS

  15. What May Be Ahead in 2003

  16. Precipitation

  17. Precipitation • A few storms contribute a large fraction of annual precipitation while many small events contribute a small fraction.

  18. What Happens Next • We have never experienced 2 consecutive extreme statewide drought years. • Past multi-year drought, characterized by one extreme year preceded and followed by other dry year. • Entire Region rarely all recovers quickly and at the same time. • Hope for the best, plan for the worst!!

  19. Positive Indicators • Late winter snows • Cool spring • Multi-day precipitation • Wet Snow • Low intensity rainfall • Light winds • High humidity • Abundant cloud cover

  20. Negative Indicators • Little late winter snow • Missed opportunities • Warm spring • Brief, sporadic precipitation • High intensity rainfall • Frequent, strong winds • Low humidity • Abundant sunshine

  21. Current Indicators • El Niño still present • Unfavorable Pacific decadal oscillation • Missed opportunities • February better – but not a good indicator • Wet often follows dry • Most extreme dry periods last one year (Exceptions: SE CO)

  22. TemperatureMarch-May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  23. PrecipitationMarch-May 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  24. Temperature June-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  25. PrecipitationJune-Aug 2003 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

  26. Breaking This Drought Will Be Tough • A wet spring is essential to begin that process.

  27. COAGMETWeather Data for Agriculture • Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: • Temperature • Humidity • Wind • Precipitation • Solar energy • Evapotranspiration http://www.COAGMET.com

  28. Colorado Climate Magazine • Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic • $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs

  29. CoCo RaHSYOU CAN HELP! http://www.cocorahs.com

  30. Colorado Climate CenterColorado State University • Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading • http://climate.atmos.colostate.edu click on “Drought” then click on “Presentations”

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