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SARS Timeline

SARS Timeline. Nov 16 ‘02 Feb 11 ‘03 Feb 28 March 11 March 12 March 19 March 27 April 5 April 9 April 14 April 17 April 28 First cases Hong Kong WHO Sequence

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SARS Timeline

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  1. SARS Timeline Nov 16 ‘02Feb 11 ‘03Feb 28March 11March 12March 19March 27April 5April 9April 14April 17April 28 First cases Hong Kong WHO Sequence retrospectively and Vietnam issues of suspected Recognized, report out- travel agent, a Guangdong, breaks in advisories coronavirus, China hospital established workers China Acute coverup India respiratory WHO admitted; reported in issues SARS SARS Guangdong global made top by China alert priority Vietnam MOH contain- Reported First ing virus First in U.S. and SARS in (WHO) SARS Europe Africa case – Vietnam

  2. Case Distribution of SARS Worldwide ERSI, May 2003

  3. ERSI, May 2003

  4. Canada 18 HCW F,G Guangdong Province, China A F,G 11 close contacts A Ireland 0 HCW K K Hotel MHong Kong A Hong Kong SAR 95 HCW H,J I, L,M H,J B C,D,E I,L,M >100 close contacts C,D,E B United States 1 HCW Vietnam 37 HCW Singapore 34 HCW 21 close contacts 37 close contacts Effect of Travel and Missed Cases on the SARS Epidemic Spread from Hotel M, Hong Kong

  5. SARS Hotspots (as of May 28, 2003) # Probable Cases# Deaths China 5322 321 Hong Kong 1728 269 Taiwan 596 76 Singapore 206 31 Canada 148 26 United States 65 0 Vietnam 63 5 Philippines 12 2 Other Countries 62 4 Total 8202 734

  6. Number of SARS Cases Reported over Time (China)

  7. Symptoms of SARS • Cough • High fever • Severe pneumonia • Difficult to distinguish from other respiratory diseases in early stages

  8. Incidence Difference across Different Age Groups (China) （1/1,000,000） CDC, 2003

  9. Fatality Rates of Different Age Groups CDC, 2003

  10. Etiology

  11. SARS DiagnosticsKey Messages • SARS diagnostic assays are sensitive and specific, but may not provide definitive diagnosis early in the illness • Changes in the quantity, type, and timing of specimens collected may improve detection of SARS-CoV infection • Rapid and accurate diagnosis of other respiratory pathogens associated with SARS-like illness may help rule out SARS-CoV infection and calm public fears • Interpretation of test results must take into consideration possibility of false positives and negatives; a clear strategy to minimize such possibilities and to confirm test results are essential CDC, 2003

  12. Peiris: personal communication

  13. Prevention of SARS

  14. Definitions of Quarantine • Isolation • Separation and restricted movement of illpersons with contagious disease • Often in a hospital setting • Primarily individual level, may be populations • Quarantine • Separation and restricted movement of wellpersons presumed exposed to contagion • Often at home, may be designated residential facility • Applied at the individual or community level • May be voluntary or mandatory CDC, 2003

  15. Modern Quarantine A collective action for the common good predicated on aiding individuals infected or exposed to infectious agents while protecting others from the dangers of inadvertent exposure Publicgood Civil liberties Meeting needs of individuals infected and exposed is paramount CDC, 2003

  16. Key Issues to Consider • Surveillance • Clinical evaluation • Infection control measures • Patient isolation • Engineering controls • Exposure evaluation • Staffing needs and personnel policies • Access controls • Supplies and equipment • Communication CDC, 2003

  17. SARS Mysteries Origin of SARS – animal reservoirs? Is coronavirus the etiologic agent? • Cases without antibody • Non-cases with antibody

  18. SARS Mysteries (continued) What proportion of exposed persons develop clinical disease and death? • Proportion of exposed, infected and asymptomatic Are there asymptomatic carriers? • Reports of cases without known source of exposure

  19. SARS Mysteries (continued) What causes “super shedders”? • Host characteristics; e.g., age • Agent characteristics – “virulent strain” Is pathology caused by the virus or the response to the virus? • AIDS patients appear to be resistant to SARS

  20. SARS Mysteries (continued) Will SARS reappear in the fall? • SARS is transmitted through the respiratory route. These diseases, like influenza, tend to have a season cycle with resurgence in the late fall, winter and early spring

  21. Will SARS Re-emerge? • Potential sources of re-emergence • Animal reservoir • Humans with persistent infection • Unrecognized transmission in humans • Laboratory exposure • SARS most likely to recur outside U.S. • Well-established global surveillance is important to recognition of first case

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