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Skills Shortages in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021

Skills Shortages in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021. A report prepared for RDA Brisbane Presentation to Lord Mayor’s Economic Development Steering Committee. 1. Our Approach. 2. Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment 1989 - 2011. 3.

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Skills Shortages in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021

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  1. Skills Shortages in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market 2012-2021 A report prepared for RDA Brisbane Presentation to Lord Mayor’s Economic Development Steering Committee

  2. 1 • Our Approach 2 • Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment • 1989 - 2011 3 • Key Findings and Employment Projections • 2012 - 2021 4 • Policy Implications

  3. 1 • Our Approach 2 • Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment • 1989 - 2011 • Key Findings and Employment Projections • 2012 - 2021 3 • Policy Implications 4

  4. Our Approach • Quantitative Analysis: • Test for structural breaks in the Greater Brisbane Labour Market over period 1989 – 2011 • Shift share analysis • Produce baseline predictions and Business as Usual (BAU) scenario – to identify potential shortfall • Industry Consultation: • Obtain views from industry groups on likely labour market issues facing Greater Brisbane • Acted as independent audit of our findings

  5. 1 • Our Approach 2 • Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment • 1989 - 2011 • Key Findings and Employment Projections • 2012 - 2021 3 • Policy Implications 4

  6. Current Structure of Queensland Labour Market Queensland labour market is tight with low unemployment rates and a number of unfilled vacancies

  7. Brisbane Resident Population Components from 2001 – 2006 Overall, 405,000 persons (32%) of resident population moved, in or out, of Brisbane labour market 6.7% left Brisbane for other parts of Queensland 4.1% left for interstate 6.5% in-migrated from rest of Queensland 7.9% in-migrated from rest of Australia 7.2% in-migrated from overseas

  8. Occupational Labour Supply and Demand in Queensland

  9. Unemployment to Vacancy (U/V) Ratio Australia and Queensland seasonally adjusted U/V ratio Brisbane 3 months moving average U/V ratio • Queensland has a tight labour market but not as tight as Australia • Situation expect to reverse as mining industry recovers in Queensland • Brisbane labour market is tightening • there are 2-3 unemployed persons per advertised position

  10. Shift Share Analysis • Overall, the picture of the distribution of employment by industry, occupation and qualification is: • a pronounced shift into Managerial, Professional and Services positions in Mining, Public Administration and Safety, Health Care and Social Assistance, Education and Training, and Accommodation and Food Services • Above national growth in higher level post-school qualifications • Lower than expected growth in lower level and technical qualifications • Indicating an underperformance and even partial withdrawal from processing, trades and labouring positions

  11. Current Skill Shortages in Brisbane Vacancies unfilled and filled with staff lacking the desired skills of capabilities Competition for vacancies in Brisbane

  12. Summary of trends in non-school qualifications in Queensland 2006-2011

  13. 1 • Our Approach 2 • Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment • 1989 - 2011 3 • Key Findings and Employment Projections • 2012 - 2021 • Policy Implications 4

  14. Main Findings Occupational employment baseline growth rates for 2012-2021 suggest Brisbane will expand by 343,000 jobs by 2021

  15. Main Findings – occupations of particular needs identified

  16. Forecasts of additional employees required for the period 2012-2021, by major occupational groups, Greater Brisbane Labour Market

  17. Forecasts of additional employees required for the period 2012-2021, by industry divisionsa, Greater Brisbane Labour Market

  18. Industry employment growth rate baseline predictions for Brisbane 2012-2021

  19. Occupational employment growth rate baseline predictions for Brisbane 2012-2021

  20. Extra employment needed between 2012-2021 – under baseline predictions Changes to persons to be employed by industry Changes to persons to be employed by occupation

  21. Occupational employment projections for Greater Brisbane Labour Market

  22. Industry employment projections for Greater Brisbane Labour Market

  23. 1 • Our Approach 2 • Greater Brisbane Labour Market Environment • 1989 - 2011 • Key Findings and Employment Projections • 2012 - 2021 3 4 • Policy Implications

  24. Policy Implications and Recommendations • Intervention is needed to stop excess labour demand pressures, particularly in health related areas • Increase efforts to attract inward migration (address housing and infrastructure base issues) • Emphasise bridging courses to retrain and up-skill workers • Accept and assist predicted structural changes to occur • VET system reform • Greater role in less traditional areas (e.g. arts, media and ICT) • Increase tertiary access to disadvantaged groups • Ensure institutional and legislative arrangements are focused on fast tracking the creation of suitable labour

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