Critical Skills Shortages Related to Meteorology

1. Critical Skills Shortages Related to Meteorology Marine Meteorology Mr. Rich Jeffries Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command. OFCM Mini-Workshop, Apr 23, 2009

2. Outline • Current Foundation Knowledge and Skills • Future Fundamental Knowledge • Shortages and Gaps • Current Activities and Solutions • Recommendations

3. Foundation Knowledge • Air/Sea Interface and Boundary Layer Dynamics • Geostrophic Wind Theory • Principles of the Thermal Kenetic Energy Equation • Wind/Wave Generation • Littoral Wind/Wave/Surface Synoptic and Mesoscale Effects. • Dynamics and Thermodynamics* • Processes contributing to and physical sources of atmospheric features • Deterministic Modeling Principles • Parameterizations • Resolutions • Strengths and Weaknesses of Medium Range Prediction

4. Decision support CIV/MPN Master Engagement Master Products -Performance Surface MPN Production -New models -GI&S C-1 School Journeyman CIV LBFS&I -New Sensors -Gliders -UUVs CIV A School Apprentice • Actions: • Re-scope the work (where it lies, phased approach). Possible point to redefine • and push work down. • 2. Assess what we do along formal training venues (NPS, Universities, • A-school, C-1 school, SWIFT)

5. Future Functional Skill Sets • Identify Future Needs • Arctic Meteorology • Ensembles/Stochastic Modeling • Decision Science/Support • GI&S Product Support • Performance Surfaces – decision support calculations. • Determine when it is appropriate to use deterministic predictions and/or stochastic predictions. • Relate environmental impact to the decisions they support. • Publish products in the format used by the customer.

6. Addressing the Navy Skills GAPS • Funding innovative approaches • AOTSR • UUV/AUV/UAV Observations • Stochastic and Decision Science Seminars • Stochastic Product Demonstrations. • COMET Distance Learning Dynamics Modules • COMET Modules – Arctic Forecasting, Wave Series, New Ensemble Models Module • Replacing some enlisted AGs with meteorologists and moving military into decision support positions.

7. Ensembles Quantify Risk NMFC Route Parameters • Ship/Tactical Limits • “Acceptable Risk” • Fuel Consumption • SOE Events Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR) Ocean Weather Parameters • Navigation Data • Winds/Seas/Vis • High Res Currents MOVREP FNMOC (NAVO) WEAX MOVREP Parser SA Tool Reachback Ship Routing Scheduled for TCC 29 April

8. Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR)Future… Ocean Weather Parameters Initial Route Request • Navigation Data • Winds/Seas/Vis • High Res Currents Ensembles Quantify Risk Route Builder Maritime Ship Router Route Parameters • Ship/Tactical Limits • “Acceptable Risk” • Fuel Consumption • SOE Events Parameters adjustable based on meeting mission needs Final Route Issued

9. Actions with Academia • Establishing Distance Learning Degrees • Thesis Topic List • Updated Educational Skills Requirements at NPS • RTP funding support for Thesis Topics • Primary focus of efforts • Enlisted Marine Science Bachelor’s Degrees – University of Southern Mississippi. • Mississippi State University – Online Degree in Meteorology • Naval Postgraduate School – Ensembles and Decision Support • Naval Research Laboratory/Fleet Numerical – Ensembles and AOTSR • UW APL – Gliders and Arctic Prediction • COMET – Dynamics and Training Modules

10. Recommendations • Agencies must recognize the importance of shifting numerical prediction into the Arctic as climate change continues and the Arctic becomes navigatible during part of the year. • Meteorological academia and Federal agencies must increase emphasis toward development of stochastic modeling and forecasting skills. • Embrace advanced understanding of decision science as a delivery process for Marine Meteorology Results.

11. Questions?