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Community Development under Ever Changing Climate Regime:

Community Development under Ever Changing Climate Regime: Lessons Learnt from Southeast Asia Mainland Countries. Anond Snidvongs Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC) c/o Chulalongkorn University and National Research Council, Bangkok, Thailand. Local and global threats

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Community Development under Ever Changing Climate Regime:

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  1. Community Development under Ever Changing Climate Regime: Lessons Learnt from Southeast Asia Mainland Countries Anond Snidvongs Southeast Asia START Regional Center (SEA START RC) c/o Chulalongkorn University and National Research Council, Bangkok, Thailand

  2. Local and global threats Lessons learnt from Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam Knowledge synthesis process Application of benefit/cost analysis Outline

  3. Problems of Scales between Events and Actions Century Country Climate Cycle Climate Province Decade District ENSO Years Village Weather Events Months/season Farm Days/weeks Household

  4. Economic: More service-based economy Social: Globalization in terms of livelihood, social cohesion and structure, less harmony with local environment (and climate) Environment, ecosystem and natural resource: Generally deteriorate Coastal inundation: Short term causes (storm surge, monsoon driven coastal flooding, inland floods, tsunami) Long term causes (coastal erosion, land subsidence, sea level rise) Pressing Local Issues in Coastal Zone

  5. Monsoon and typhoon variability Geology and tectonic Mega project developments and urban centers draw in resources (including human) Land use and agriculture policies: Food and energy crops Climate and upstream hydrologic changes Regional/CatchmentScale Issues

  6. Possibly climate change Trend of typhoon-class storm in South Vietnam (Khanh Hua, Ninh Thuan, Binh Thuan, Ba Ria-Vung Tao, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, and Minh Hai (Ca Mau) 5-year sums Natural cycle

  7. Trends of Cyclonic Storms in the Central Gulf of Thailand

  8. Vertical Displacement of Thailand Coastline CGPS data from Survey Engineering Department, Chulalongkorn University

  9. Land subsidence (sediment layer depression only) around Bangkok (1986-2007)

  10. GHG driven climate change and sea level rise (mean and extreme frequencies) S&T that serve ‘city’ livelihoods, capital cost for technologies (intellectual property) Threats from Global Agenda

  11. GHG Driven Climate Change PRECIS RCM Output: Days with T > 35 oC SRES A2 SRES B2

  12. GHG Driven Climate Change PRECIS RCM Output: Change in Rain Days SRES A2 SRES B2

  13. GHG Driven Mean Sea Level Rise SRES A2 (High Emission) from DIVA

  14. Governments (usually dominate): Concern on where to get money, spend least and get visible (politically impact) quickly Communities and civic societies: Lose faith and trust with centralized government (and its data and science), more inward focused, emotional, ‘idolization’ Entrepreneurs and developers: Protect investments, want most value per dollar invested, uncertainty about future business environment lead to short-term returns Scientists: Get involve and personal, does not understand roles, take side and carried away, sectoral and discipline oriented, fragmented and not holistic, not sufficiently funded, make too big research problems for limited funding, inability to communicate uncertainty and risks Why can’t problem be solved: Lessons learnt from past and present

  15. Proactive/preventive scenario-based approach to avoid future conflicts of developments To bridge current gaps and adjust mentality/attitude among stakeholders Create sense of common belongingand togetherness Appropriate communication approaches Knowledge Synthesis through Participation

  16. Fully participate to ensure sense of owbership and belonging Repetitive and patient Logical foresighting but with imagination Use maps and GIS as working platforms Not aim for agreement but allow for alternate options for development and how can they be harmonized with future environment and among one another Some Success Factors for Knowledge Synthesis

  17. Not to become another part in the conflict Do not dominate but to provide scientific rationales Encourage for diversity Innovative communications Knowledge management Roles of Scientists/Academia

  18. Inundation of coastal rice fields due to combinations of strong monsoon breaks, mean sea level rise and land subsidence Benefit/Cost Analysis as a Communication Tool Klong Prasong, Krabi, Thailand Mean sea level rise (~22 cm/30y) + Land subsidence (~27 cm/30y) = Net sea level rise ~50cm/30y

  19. u v Land Strong Monsoon Breaks Frequency from PRECIS On shore monsoon surge

  20. 25/30 y 3 km dyke to 0.75 m 2.0 1.75 1.5 Saved for 5/30y 546 Rais Rice 1.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 Mangrove Total damage cost: 921 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 60 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 82 M Baht /30y

  21. 3/30 y 5 km dyke to 1.5 m 2.0 1.75 1.5 Saved for 27/30y 1,357 Rais Rice 1.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 Mangrove Total damage cost: 151 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 100 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 852 M Baht /30y

  22. 7 km dyke to 2.0 m 2.0 1.75 1.5 Saved for 30/30y 1,793 Rais Rice 1.25 1.0 0.75 0.5 Mangrove Total damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y Dyke construction cost: 140 M Baht Damage cost reduction: 1,003 M Baht /30y

  23. Benefit:Cost of Dykes Optimum ~5 km at 1.5m B:C ~8.5

  24. Damage Compensation

  25. Invest 100 M Baht to construct 5 km dike at 1.5 m above MSL Prepare 151 M for installed compensation (from government or shared cost by farmers/public sector) for damage over 30 y (about 5 M Baht per year) Total adaptation cost 251 M Baht Budget Bureau will prefer this option Option 1: Optimal Infrastructure Cost

  26. Invest 140 M Baht to construct 7 km dyke at 2 m above MSL Rice field will be completely protected and no compensation will be needed Total adaptation cost 140 M Baht Farmers and politicians will prefer this option Option 2: Most Security

  27. Raise mud crabs in the lower area to provide compensation to damaged rice in the upper area Dig crab ponds down to -1 m below MSL Retreat (Mixed Farming) Option

  28. Crab ponds to 1.0 m above MSL 2.0 Rice 1.75 1.5 998 Rais 1.25 1.0 0.75 Crab 0.5 Mangrove Total rice damage cost: 172 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 278 M Baht Crab profit: 2,396 M Baht /30y Net profit: 2,224 M Baht /30y

  29. Crab ponds to 1.5 m above MSL 2.0 Rice 1.75 1.5 1,357 Rais 1.25 1.0 0.75 Crab 0.5 Mangrove Total rice damage cost: 29 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 406 M Baht Crab profit: 3,257 M Baht /30y Net profit: 3,228 M Baht /30y

  30. Crab ponds to 2.0mabove MSL Rice 2.0 1.75 1.5 1,793 Rais 1.25 1.0 0.75 Crab 0.5 Mangrove Total rice damage cost: 0 M Baht /30y Crab pond excavation cost: 596 M Baht Crab profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y Net profit: 4,303 M Baht /30y

  31. Benefit:Cost of Crab Ponds Optimum ~1.1 m above MSL B:C ~8.2

  32. By raising mud crabs in area below ~1.1 m (above MSL) and grow rice above that contour line Cost to excavate land to make crab pond ~280 M Baht Net profit from crabs will be ~2,500 M Baht /30y of which ~150 M Baht will be used to compensate rice farmers who loss their crops due to salt intrusion B:C ~8.2 which is closed to dyke option but may be more ecological friendly?? Option 3: Optimum Mixed Farming

  33. A national center under the National Scientific and Technology Development Agency, Ministry of Science and Technology Provide knowledge support for systems and sectors to develop in harmony with future climate and other constraints/opportunities Multi scale approach (information gathering, dissemination, communication) Climate Change Knowledge Management Center, Thailand

  34. Thank You

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