Operational Context & Requirements for the Finance Strategy 2019/20 – 2023/24

1. Operational Context & Requirements for the Finance Strategy 2019/20 – 2023/24

2. Planning for the Future Local Policing Specialist Capabilities Workforce Digital Policing Enabling Business Delivery Governance and Accountability

3. Context • Since 2009/10 focus has been on improving quality of service whilst making significant financial savings £50m to date • Complex challenges, pace of technological change, increase in terrorism, public services funding • Increase in demand within SOC and Vulnerability • Re-focus and prioritisation of Threat, Risk and Harm • Specific focus on innovation to enable us to identify and support vulnerable people • Collaborative work to improve systems, enhance efficiency & effectiveness • Investment in our people and in key areas of risk • Continuing austerity implications e.g. impact on deprived areas

4. Crime Increases

6. Increase in demand

7. Resource implications • Shaping Our investigative capability for future demand • A review has been undertaken of our CID/PPU investigate resources. • Detailed demand analysis was undertaken to establish current situation. • The rise in reported in vulnerability crime, and the complexities of the investigations evidence the need for increased detective resources • The business case has been approved with a tiered approached to the increase of the detective capacity within Public Protection. • The overall increase amounts to 30 extra investigative resources available to respond to the most serious and complex crimes.

8. Gwent Police Operational Control Strategy 2018/19 Protect & Reassure • Protect • People From Serious Harm • Child Sexual Exploitation • Modern Day Slavery & Human Trafficking • Domestic Abuse • High Risk Missing Children • Pursue • People Harming Communities • Organised Crime Groups • Illegal Drugs Supply • County Lines • Rape & Serious Sexual Offenders • Prevent • People Becoming Victims • Cyber Crime (Enabled & Dependent) • Protest & Policing of Events • Management of Sexual & Violent Offenders Prepare The Strategic Policing Requirement Public Order Collaboration Civil Emergencies Cyber Counter Terrorism

9. Organised Crime – Force Response • Force resources have been dedicated to address issues of organised crime against the most vulnerable members of our communities. These include:- • Dedicated Modern Day Slavery and Human Trafficking Team, based at Risca. 1 x DS, 1 x DC, 1 x PC, 1 x Support staff (support from central analyst and researcher as required). • As a direct result of this investment, 157% increase in victim referrals for support. 34 crimes recorded last 6 months compared to 14 the previous reporting period. • Investment in Cyber Crime Unit – additional Financial Investigators and Hi Tech crime resources. Requirement for force to develop cyber-dependant capacity and capability. National direction that all cyber-dependant crime dealt with locally. • Emergence of County Lines – experience of cuckoo incidents in Newport area against the most vulnerable and London OCGs trying to infiltrate into area. They bring higher levels of violence and use of weapons. Proactive work inevitably creates market vacuum and risk of new OCGs emerging.

10. Organised Crime – Force Response • Serious Organised Crime Strategy and SOC brand - Operation JIGSAW, recently launched. • Regional assets (ROCU) have been fully engaged supporting Gwent consistently for the last 12 months and this is likely to continue into the foreseeable future. • Force OCU Performance against Organised Crime • Cash seizures – in excess of £600k • Drugs seized - 49 Kilos of Class A and 74.3 kilos of Class B • Significant assets and in excess of 50 vehicles. • In excess of a 240 years of prison sentences with Op Finch, Op Divide and Op Jackdaw sentences yet to be added. • 163 people arrested.

11. Organised Crime – Force Response • SOC Community Co-ordinator • Developing stakeholder groups where intelligence is shared • Working with St Giles Trust to support cohort of children at risk of engaging in SOC • School program on SOC with Barnardos, Newport Live, Crimestoppers and St Giles. • Working with Mutual Gain to develop community resilience in Ringland • Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) project • Schools Liaison Program – SOC education program and intelligence gathering. • Mini Police Program • Neighbourhood Policing – Community engagement and SOC intelligence flow

12. Police workforce changes 2007-2018

13. Some of the Known Cost Pressures • Over Establishment of Officers - £1.952M – Non recurring pressure to fund the over establishment of police officers (47wte) in 2019-20. This will be reversed out according to the establishment profile in future years. • Officer Pension Contribution - £1.819M – Due to the Pension Valuation the assumptions for employer contributions to the officers pension has increased from 24.2% to 28% in 2019-20 with an increase to 33.9% in 2020-21 • Medical Examinations - £0.25M – Currently pressure on existing budget. On call SARC cover is approx. £500 per day (£183k). The current budget (120k) is not sufficient to cover the on call function in additional to bank holiday cover, call out charges and expenses, medical reports and other external medical examinations required. • Custody Medical Contract – approximately £0.173M – currently undergoing tendering • Injury Pension Payments - £0.138M – Injury Pension Payments have increased by approximately £12k per month.

14. Economy / Infrastructure unknown implications • The population of Undy and Magor to rise by 10,000 within the next ten years • Of all the houses sold last year in Chesptow, Caldicot and Magor,  80% were sold to people from Bristol • Bristol is the UKs fastest- growing economy outside of London, and their house prices are the fastest – growing in the country • 25 million journeys are made a year across the bridge, that number is estimated to rise significantly by 20%-40% • 4000 new homes in Glan Llyn and 6000 jobs in Newport over 20 years development • Recognition of Cardiff as an “international capital city” • The new Celtic Manor Conference centre will be completed in spring 2019 and hold 5000 delegates and generate 100,000 hotel bed nights across Newport

15. Risks & Unknown Cost Pressures • The risks to the financial plan include: • Removing initiatives that work in order to balance costs e.g. MH practitioners • Demand from the New M4 Construction • M4 Protest sites, cost and community tensions • Celtic Manor Party Conferences planning costs & operation costs • Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) • Funding the Additional Pension Contribution • Funding Formula Introduction • Welsh Government Continued Funding for Partnerships and specifically PCSOs • Cost of National ICT Programmes • Cost of Borrowing (to fund capital programme) • Cost and demand implications of Brexit

16. MTFP Position • Savings required over the next 4 years has risen from £10M to £12M. • The movement of £2M includes an additional £5M for Police Pensions and £6M on other emerging cost pressures. Offset by budgetary savings, planned service changes & changes to funding assumptions • This position maintains the assumption of a £6M loss of grant on the new funding formula • 2019/20 position is that savings required of £3.5M is offset by savings identified of only £0.791M – there is a gap of £2.7M • Underlying assumptions around Police Grant, RSG, NNDR and Precept have been changed • The Precept for the four years of the MTFP assumed at 4.99%. • Nick Hurd MP – Police funding letter – if Substantial Progress on productivity & efficiency - £12 – 4.99% • Procurement & Shared Services • Mobile Working & Digital • Transparency about effective use of reserves.

17. Future requirements • To consider and note the budgetary requirements for the period of the Medium Term (5 Year Plan) Financial Plan, and specifically note: • Quantified financial gap arising from significant service and cost pressures - £10.304M • Significant capital requirement of £81M and non-capital investment of £14M • Borrowing Requirement of £37.4M requiring financing costs of £1.148M • Programme of change to deliver service improvement and value for money to achieve Policing Vision 2025. • The financial gap 2019/20 is £3.491M and it is proposed to fund this as follows: • Identified Savings - £0.791M • Reserves and / or further efficiencies (to fund Police Pension) - £1.651M • Precept at 6.99% - £1.049M