Describing environmental systems

1. Emilie KannElten • 5th May 2014 JohannaSchütz • Noelle Kehli Describing environmental systems Systems approach, static and dynamic

2. Content of presentation • Why describe environmental systems? • Briefly the overall contents of our report • Take-home messages • Difficulties • References

3. why describe environmental systems? • Understanding our surroundings • Understanding interactions and links • Understanding our role in change • Appreciating processes

4. Stucture Introduction to three approaches to describing environmental systems • static analysis • dynamic approach • systems approach A case study on each approach based on articles • Neither of the methods have a firm definition. • Can be used in various fields; both ecological, economical, social. • The methods are adaptable and must be altered to fit every study individually.

5. Summary of report - static analysis • Many names for the same thing. • Describes states - no temporal variability! • Algebraic or statistical. Examples: Statistical (deterministic) - spreadsheets (visualisation of data; graphs, tables, regression analysis) Algebraic (stochastic) - Monte Carlo Simulation (case study) D’Souza & Wills (1999), Gustafsson (2005)

6. Summary of report - static analysis, case study Chow TE, Gaines KF, Hodgson ME, Wilson MD. (2005) Habitat and exposure modelling for ecological risk assessment: A case study for the raccoon on the Savannah River Site. Ecological Modeling, Volume 189, pp. 151-167. Elsevier. Aim: • to provide a general framework and specific procedures to predict contaminant exposure of mid-sized mammals • to discuss limitations and problems in implementation of GIS-based ecological risk assessment models. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) used to map two variables: • the relationship between probability of the raccoons foraging at a location • the on-site risk of contamination exposure to the raccoons from the resources at the location

7. 5 seconds’ break

8. Summary of report - dynamic analysis Temporal change, the stochasticity of the variables and different factors influencing the variables are important in dynamical systems Dynamic models describe behaviour of an object over time based on differential equations. Behaviour considered as either continuous or discrete Three major types of dynamic systems: - Steady-state - Oscillations - Deterministic chaos Resilience, self-organisation, hierarchy

9. Summary of report - dynamic analysis, case study Markatos, N.C. (2011). Dynamic computer modeling of environmental system for decision making, risk assessment and design. Asia- Pacific Journal of Chemical Engineering. Vol. 7, pp. 182-205. Wiley Online Library Dynamic computer model to predict and assess the fate of oil spills Two regions outside the Lesvos Island in Greece Differential equations and physical laws

10. Summary of report -systems approach Systems approach is a more holistic approach that aims to incorporate all relevant factors and fields. • General Systems Theory (Von Bertalanffy 1972) • Living Systems Theory (Corning 2014) • Gray Systems Theory (Julong 1989 and Lou 2014) Other theories: Chaos theory, context theory, adaptive systems, etc.

11. Summary of report -systems approach, case study Lou D. (2014): Risk evaluation of ice-jam disasters using gray system theory: the case of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River. Natural Hazards. Volume 71, pp. 1419-1431. Springer.

12. Take-home messages course related • Many approaches to describing environmental systems • No standardised approach that works for everything • Approaches to describe environmental systems also used in other fields of study (economic, social, political) • Complex models demand more resources (time, money, computational power) • Complex models are not always better than simple ones • Which approach depends on study and aim

13. Take-home messages Group work • Start well in advance • Topic might not be as obvious as you thought • Important to sit together and discuss • Do not underestimate the time it takes to research

14. Difficulties and questions Comments • Many different names and theories • Topics are not concrete - very broad and not well-defined • What we were supposed to do with the headline • How to structure the work process during a holiday • Something important missing? • 5 min. guiding session or mid-term evaluation or both Question • Difference between static and dynamic - temporal aspect? • Incorporation of temporal change - does not mean that static approach cannot use time as a variable - or?

15. References • Chow TE, Gaines KF, Hodgson ME, Wilson MD. (2005) Habitat and exposure modelling for ecological risk assessment: A case study for the raccoon on the Savannah River Site. Ecological Modelling, Volume 189, pp. 151-167. Elsevier. • Corning P.A. (2014): Systems Theory and the Role of Synergy in the Evolution of Living Systems. Systems Research and Behavioral Science. Volume 31. pp. 181-196. • D’Souza, DF, Wills, AC. 1999. Objects, Components, and Frameworks with UML - The CatalysisSM Approach. Chapter II. Addison-Wesley Longman, Inc. Available online at: http://www.catalysis.org/books/ocf/, last accessed 29th April 2014. • Gustafsson, L. (2005) Studying Dynamic and Stochastic Systems Using Poisson Simulation. Chapter 8 in: Micro Meso Macro – Adressing Complex System Couplings. Editors: Liljenström, H., Svedin, U. World Scientific Publishing Company. • Julong D. (1989): Introduction to Gray System Theory. The Journal of Gray System. Volume 1. pp. 1-24. • Lou D. (2014): Risk evaluation of ice-jam disasters using gray system theory: the case of Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reaches of the Yellow River. Natural Hazards. Volume 71, pp. 1419-1431. Springer. • Markatos, N.C. (2011). Dynamic computer modeling of environmental system for decision making, risk assessment and design. Asia- Pacific Journal of Chemical Engineering. Vol. 7, pp. 182-205. Wiley Online Library. • Von Bertalanffy L. (1972): The History and Status of General Systems Theory. The Academy of Management Journal. Volume 15, number 4. pp. 407-426.

16. Thank you for your attention