1 / 25

Public SaaS Company Performance: Winners, Losers & Lessons Learned

Public SaaS Company Performance: Winners, Losers & Lessons Learned. SAAS MARKET UPDATE – SUMMARY. SaaS stocks are up 71% YTD in 2009, but success has not been universal Represents a 110% rebound from the lows of early March

norris
Download Presentation

Public SaaS Company Performance: Winners, Losers & Lessons Learned

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Public SaaS Company Performance: Winners, Losers & Lessons Learned

  2. SAAS MARKET UPDATE – SUMMARY • SaaS stocks are up 71% YTD in 2009, but success has not been universal • Represents a 110% rebound from the lows of early March • Median multiples now stand at 3.9x 2009E revenue and 26.3x 2009E free cash flow • Biggest leaders have been from most maligned sectors: HR, CRM • Some of the best SaaS companies have been stock laggard • Focus areas for 2010 • CRM, collaboration, compliance are hot sectors. • HR dropped in this survey. • Renewal rates remains strong • Investors are desperate for new ideas • Value bookings growth and consistency • Key metrics: LTV, CAC, Magic Number • More consolidation to come • Keep doing what you are doing…

  3. SAAS STOCK PRICES SINCE JANUARY 2008 Market Data DJIA: -25% NASDAQ: -19% SaaS Index Equal Weights: -24% Market Cap Weighted: -18% Notes: SaaS Index includes ATHN, CNQR, CTCT, TRAK, DMAN, KNXA, N, OMTR, RNOW, SLRY, CRM, SFSF, TLEO and VOCS (excludes LOGM). Source: Capital IQ as of 10/12/09.

  4. SAAS MARKET VALUATIONS AND CHANGES YTD (US dollars in millions) Market Capitalization $8,500 Best Performers: TLEO, SFSF, OMTR, CRM, RNOW % Change YTD(1) Mean: 71% Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09. (1) Mean percent change year-to-date excludes LOGM; LOGM percent change reflects change since pricing on 6/30/09.

  5. SAAS 2009E REVENUE MULTIPLES (US dollars in millions) Enterprise Value / 2009E Revenue Median: 3.9x High Quality has stayed High Multiple 2009E Median Revenue Multiple Trendline SaaS: 3.9x Software Universe: 2.5x Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09.

  6. SAAS 2009E FCF MULTIPLES (US dollars in millions) Enterprise Value / 2009E FCF Median: 26.3x Also true for FCF multiples 2009E Median FCF Multiple Trendline SaaS: 26.3x Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09. Note: FCF multiples greater than 60x are considered not material ("NM").

  7. SAAS 2010E REVENUE MULTIPLES (US dollars in millions) Enterprise Value / 2010E Revenue Median: 3.5x But, High Multiple does not mean High Performer 2010E Median Revenue Multiple Trendline SaaS: 3.5x Software Universe: 2.4x Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09.

  8. RECENT MARKET RALLY Worst Performers: DMAN ATHN VOCS CTCT Best Performers: KNXA TLEO SFSF RNOW Market Data DJIA: +51% NASDAQ: +69% SaaS Index Equal Weights: +110% Market Cap Weighted: +98% Notes: SaaS Index includes ATHN, CNQR, CTCT, TRAK, DMAN, KNXA, N, OMTR, RNOW, SLRY, CRM, SFSF, TLEO and VOCS (excludes LOGM). Source: Capital IQ as of 10/12/09.

  9. REVENUE MULTIPLES VERSUS GROWTH AND FCF MARGINS Enterprise Value / 2009E Revenue Enterprise Value / 2009E Revenue 2009E Revenue Growth 2009E FCF Margin Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09.

  10. FCF MULTIPLES VERSUS GROWTH AND FCF MARGINS Enterprise Value / 2009E FCF Enterprise Value / 2009E FCF 2009E Revenue Growth 2009E FCF Margin Source: Capital IQ and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09. Note: 2009E FCF multiples greater than 60x are not material.

  11. SaaS Frequency of Quarterly Beats and Raises Last Six Quarters Last Three Quarters Source: Company reports and Wall Street estimates as of 10/12/09.

  12. CONSISTENCY IS KEY TO STOCK SUCCESS • Human Resources – SFSF, TLEO, KNXA. • SaaS is replacing HR departments. • Job churn despite unemployment increases. • Multiples were relatively modest. • Customer Relationship Management – CRM, RNOW • Moving from SFA to Marketing • 58% of CIO’s plan to purchase SaaS CRM over next 12 month, 33% SFA • Investors reward consistency • Inherently better consistency in SaaS models • But, if you change strategy expect some pain (i.e. SLRY, RNOW, CNQR)

  13. 2010 IT & SAAS BUDGETS WILL IMPROVE • IT budgets are actually increasing. • 56% expect increase 2009 IT budget, largely consistent thru 2009. But, 24% expect < 2% increase. • 68% expect increase 2010 IT budget. But, 29% expect <2% increase. • Biggest priorities are virtualization, CRM, business intelligence and security. • Biggest risks are services (both onshore and offshore), software applications, middleware/SOA, data center co-location. • SaaS at risk had appeared in 1H surveys

  14. SAAS WELL POSITIONED • In surveys, satisfaction with SaaS remains high, despite moderating usage with economy. • 60% usage vs. 71% in 2008 and 25% in 2007. • Satisfaction is up again (49% vs. 40% vs. 23%). • SaaS continues to take market share. • Continues to increase as % of IT budgets (25% vs. 21% vs. 16% vs. 10%). • Renewal rates improved (93% vs 90%). • CRM, collaboration, compliance are hot sectors. • HR dropped in this survey.

  15. SAAS AS % Of IT BUDGET - Q3 2009 Budget Projections 2010 Budget Projections Survey of 80 CIO’s, July 2009, Pacific Crest Securities, Inc.

  16. SaaS As % Of IT BUDGET - Q1 2009 Budget Projections 2010 Budget Projections Survey of 74 CIO’s, March 2009, Pacific Crest Securities, Inc.

  17. RENEWAL RATE UP TO 93% FROM 90% Q1 2009-93% Renewal Rate Q3 2009-93% Renewal Rate Survey of 74 CIO’s, March 2009, Pacific Crest Securities, Inc. Q1 2008-90% Renewal Rate Survey of 80 CIO’s, July 2009, Pacific Crest Securities, Inc. Survey of 109 CIO’s, March 2008, Pacific Crest Securities, Inc.

  18. SAAS PRIORITIES FOR NEXT 12 MONTHS Customer Relationship Mgmt – 58% Collaboration – 43% Compliance & Risk Mgmt – 39% Industry Specific Applications – 38% Procurement/Supply Chain – 38% Enterprise Resource Planning – 36% Web Analytics – 35% Sales Force Automation – 33% Real Time Dashboards – 28% Human Resource Mgmt – 20% E-Commerce – 15% Big Increase in CRM Big Drop in HR

  19. PRIMARY SAAS BENEFITS Faster Implementation Time – 55% Access To Current Version – 55% Lower Internal IT Costs – 54% Lower TCO – 50% System Reliability- 46% Security – 41% Integration With Existing Infrastructure – 39% Ready Remote User Access – 38% Reduced Hardware Requirements – 28% Ability To Customize Applications – 24% Former Obstacles Are Now Assets

  20. SAAS EFFICIENCY RATIOS MRR GP = – CAC LTV Churn Magic Number CAC Ratio Δ Revenue Δ Gross Profit = = S&M costs S&M costs

  21. LTV ILLUSTRATION Constant Contact: $300 CAC; $35 MRR; 71% GM; 2.2% Churn Cash Flow Stream of New Customer $825 Net Customer Value Breakeven in Month 12 45 Month Customer Life (2.2% Churn) Months $25 (MRR GP) Net Customer Value – 300 – CAC = = 2.2% Churn

  22. CAC RATIO ILLUSTRATION Company Profile: $20M Run-Rate; 36% Growth; 70% GM Q1 Q2 Δ Δ ARR Revenues $5.0 $5.4 $0.4 $1.6 Gross Profit 3.5 3.8 0.3 1.2 Scenario 1 CAC Ratio = 1.0 Q1 S&M = $1.2M Q1 CF = +$0.5M 5-Year CF = +$25M Scenario 2 CAC Ratio = 0.5 Q1 S&M = $2.4M Q1 CF = -$0.6M 5-Year CF = -$26M

  23. SAAS COMPANY MARGIN ANALYSIS Median Run-Rate ~$25M ~$50M ~$100M Gross Margin 72% 68% 70% Sales & Marketing 60% 47% 46% Research & Dev. 23% 19% 12% 15% 15% 17% General & Admin. (26%) (17%) (1%) EBIT Margin FCF Margin (13%) (4%) 5% Median includes ATHN, CNQR, CTCT, DMAN, KNXA, LOGM, N, OMTR, RNOW, SLRY, CRM, SFSF, TLEO and VOCS. ~$25M median excludes ATHN, CNQR and RNOW. ~$100M median excludes DMAN, LOGM, SLRY and VOCS.

  24. INVESTORS DESPERATE FOR NEW IDEAS • Bookings growth and consistency are key • Companies are looking for growth • Consolidation from legacy software vendors • (ADBE/OMTR) • Consolidation within SaaS • (TLEO/Vurv, KNXA/Brass Ring) • Consolidation within industries • (AMEX investment in CNQR) • New revenue streams are starting to emerge • TLEO selling resumes • RealPage • So, keep doing what you are doing…

  25. Public SaaS Company Performance: Winners, Losers & Lessons Learned

More Related