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IOOS Modeling Strategy Development

IOOS Modeling Strategy Development. March 7, 2013 Becky Baltes, John Ten Hoeve, Leslie Rosenfeld, Rich Signell, Dave Schwab. Agenda. Motivation (10 Minutes) Candidate Goals of the Modeling Strategy (10 min) Goals for Discussion (10 min) Discussion (50 min)

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IOOS Modeling Strategy Development

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  1. IOOS Modeling Strategy Development March 7, 2013 Becky Baltes, John Ten Hoeve, Leslie Rosenfeld, Rich Signell, Dave Schwab

  2. Agenda • Motivation (10 Minutes) • Candidate Goals of the Modeling Strategy (10 min) • Goals for Discussion (10 min) • Discussion (50 min) • Next Steps / Action Items (10 min)

  3. Why a Modeling Strategy? • FY14 NOP milestone “Develop a national modeling strategy that uses the various ocean models (ocean circulation, waves, atmospheric, biological, ecosystem, etc.) to determine how regional scale models supported by IOOS regions can be integrated into Federal efforts, and describes how they can be developed in a nested fashion to support local, regional, national, and global needs” • Advance IOOS Initiatives • Needs identified during IOOS Summit • DMAC subsystem provided evidence that strategy development is beneficial

  4. Now is the Time • Regionally • IOOS Modeling and Analysis Workshop (MAST) Report • Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed • Strong modeling capacity in the regions • 10-year Build-Out Plans • Federally • NOS priorities for Estuarine, Coastal, Ocean Modeling Document (2007) • Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) • NOAA Storm Surge Roadmap • NOAA Ecological Forecasting Roadmap

  5. Models Identified for all Regions WIND VELOCITY OFF N CA TEMPERATURE & CURRENTS NEAR CAPE COD SWELL HT & DIR OFF S CA

  6. Each Region Faces Somewhat Unique Issues PWC Wave glider ice forecasts beach closures Hurricane forecasts Instrumented lobster trap Sea level rise HAB forecasting optimal ship routing tool BSOP storm surge

  7. POAM = Information Gathering • Describe the high-level landscape of estuarine, coastal, and ocean modeling within U.S. IOOS • Engage the modeling community to address capabilities, gaps, requirements, goals, etc. • Document the important modeling-related issues facing each RA • Investigate the potential for regional modeling efforts to contribute to strategic goals at the federal level and for federal modeling efforts to contribute to regional requirements and goals • Analyze RA build-out plans • Identify current funding and project future funding of the IOOS modeling subsystem

  8. Timeline

  9. Candidate Goals of Strategy • Better understand local, regional, national, academic, and industry modeling capabilities • Improve coordination between local, regional, national, academic, and industry modeling efforts • Connect the modeling subsystem to regional resource management issues (Issue-based) • Connect the modeling subsystem with the observation and DMAC subsystems

  10. Goals for Discussion • Discussion of an issue-based approach to develop strategy. Alternative approaches? • Determine method to establish an IOOS modeling steering team Strategy team does not need to be the same as a potentially permanent modeling steering team • Discuss role of the federal component in the development of an IOOS modeling strategy • Other concerns / topics

  11. 1. Issue-Based Strategy Identification Second, Identified by Modeler Reps Modeling Solution Management Issue First, Identified by Programmatic Reps

  12. 2. Steering Team Development Proposed Team Selection: • Super-regional representation • Representatives nominated by each RA and selected by IOOS Association • Representatives chosen by the Program Office (Fed, other) Considerations: • A reasonable cap (~12?) • Contains programmatic reps and modeling reps • Contains federal, regional, and industry reps

  13. 3. Discuss Federal Component • Role of federal modeling efforts in IOOS modeling strategy • Roles and responsibilities for sharing regional modeling work with federal operational modelers • With whom should we focus our coordination efforts (ie. NCEP, CSDL, etc…)?

  14. 4. Other Concerns / Topics? Any additional comments or concerns? Any other topics which should be discussed today? Any topics that should be discussed with your regions?

  15. Next Steps / Action Items • Select steering team members based on today’s discussion (next 30 days) • Hold first POAM development meeting with the steering team (next 45 days)

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