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AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa

AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa. Jean Philippe Lafore CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to the AMMA-International Scientific Steering Committee and to the numerous participants to AMMA. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting

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AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa

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  1. AMMA phase 2 and THORPEX-Africa Jean Philippe Lafore CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France With thanks to the AMMA-International Scientific Steering Committee and to the numerous participants to AMMA WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland

  2. Wet period 20% 10% 0 -10% -20% Dry Period The largest regional deficit of rainfall observed during the last century évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  3. Uncertainties about the future évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  4. Climate Variability Impacts Water Agriculture Health Demographics Security évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  5. 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (15-20 April 2012) Outline Flooding: Ghana 07 • AMMA project • Some major outcomes of AMMA-1 • Main objectives of AMMA-2 • Current tasks in the THORPEX area • Forecaster’s handbook • NWP • ISV • Conclusion Dry spells évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  6. THORPEX-Africa Models Researchers Greater emphasis in AMMA-2 National Operational Services Aim 1 To improve our understanding of the West African Monsoon variability Regional Centers Main contribution of AMMA phase 1 (2002-10) AMMA: An international program on West African monsoon variability and society-environment-climate interactions Aim 3 To ensure that the AMMA research is integrated with prediction & decision making activities (Forecast/EWS) Societal needs Forecasts/EWS Aim 2 To provide the underpinning science to relate WAM variability to related societal issues To define & implement relevant monitoring & prediction strategies Knowledge Observations Scientific questions évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  7. AMMA: Established an International Community AMMA coordinated with international programmes and bodies Research field experiments / Database & library Observation networks; Modelling; Satellite Products tailored & validated Coordination : Multidisciplinary, Different communities International : ~600 people from 30 countries Africa : ~250 pers ; Research and Application (Forecast/EWS) communities Training/Education: PhD (160 incl 80 Africans!!) Masters, Summer Schools, Workshops Communication (external & internal) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  8. Ewiem Nimdie Summer School - July 2008 évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  9. http://database.amma-international.org http://amma.agrhymet.ne mirrored in Africa at AGHRYMET (Niamey) Other projects: FENNEC, ALMIP2, ESCAPE,… Multidisciplinary Observations 1400 questionnaires of a socio-economic study Natural resources data AMMA Bibliography Géré à l’OMP évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  10. Radiosoundings: A Major Achievement of AMMA The AMMA radiosonde budget was about 2.5 M€ Operational agencies in the region launched the great majority of these sondes. Around 50% of these were the routine operational commitment, which has continued by and large. A significant fraction of the data were not communicated to the GTS. Funding issue to maintain a basic operational network • Project submitted to DG/Dev of EU (via SECAO) no news évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  11. More humidity in EXP Assimilation of AMSU-B over land Impact on TCWV Average over the period 1 Aug-14 Sep’06 TCWV (EXP-CTL) TCWV diurnal cycle at TOMB • Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land • Large impact over Tropics in Monsoon regions • especially over Africa and in region with a poor data coverage • Improvement of the diurnal cycle Karbou et al, 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  12. AEJ increase Assimilation of AMSU-B over land T (EXP-CTL) Vz (EXP-CTL) Karbou et al. 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  13. 48h Smaller errors in EXP 72h EUMETSAT (28-30 June 2011) WMO RAI Dissemination Expert Group 2nd Meeting Assimilation of AMSUB over land Forecast errors versus ECMWF analyses (forecast–analysis) 200hPa Z, 1-31 Aug’06Difference between EXP and CTR 24h • Positive impact of the assimilation of AMSU over land • Large impact over all Tropics on the wind field in the upper troposphere Karbou et al. 2009a, b évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  14. New forecasting methods in Africa Knowledge transfer Researchers  Forecasters Outcome Example: Forecast for civil security (Aviation, Floods, etc) AMMA, ACMAD, Météo-France, OMM, Services Météo Nationaux Africains évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  15. AMMA Forecast method:WASA/FWest African Synthetic Analysis/Forecast List of the 10 key features to put • ITD • Heat-Low • SubTrop Jet • Trough from midlatitude • TEJ • AEJ • Troughs and cyclonic centres associated to African Easterly Waves (AEW) • Midlevel dry intrusions • Monsoon layer • Convective activity: • Suppressed convection • Convection: isolated, MCS and Squall Lines 9 Provided by models Other features évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  16. 19 July 2006 AT 0600Z WASF from D-2 WASF from D-1 WASA évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  17. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland AMMA Phase 2 (2010-2020) Updated International Science Plancompleted December 2010 www.amma-international.org/IMG/pdf/ISP2_v2.pdf Research Themes: (i) Interactions, Society, Climate (ii) Weather, Seasonal and Climate Predictability and Prediction (iii) Monsoon System Priorities • Capacity building • Aims 2 and 3 will receive greater emphasis in phase 2 THORPEX-Africa évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  18. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Forecasters’ Handbook for West Africa • The forecasters’ handbook aims to: • Document existing best-practice for the region • Import and test new ideas from other parts of the world; • Exploit new scientific results from AMMA (e.g. use of land-surface remote sensing for daily to intraseasonal forecasting. • The project has formal WMO / WWRP / THORPEX-Africa support; ACMAD is leading the management • Well structured (chapters, editotial committee…) • We hope to publish this as a commercial book (this option is preferred by the African participants) • Target timescale for completion: 2013. • Lack of funding to support this project and more especially African contribution(short stays of African forecasters to elaborate materials) •  it’s not a text book (forecasting methods, Illustrations) • Case studies for training (AOC website already provides many examples) • Some support from NERC (only meetings) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  19. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Evaluation of TIGGE and ECMWF forecast products over West and Central Africa • Collaboration: • LOCEAN (Janicot), ANACIM (N’Diaye), Cameroon (Kamsu) • TIGGE multi-models ensemble runs : forecasts at 15-day range • 2008-2012 • Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa • ECMWF ensemble simulations at 45 and 60-day ranges • Hindcast over 1989-2008; ensemble runs : forecast twice a month (every fifteen days, the first one at 45-day range, the second one at 60-day range) • Evaluation for all seasons of the main 15-day modes and MJO-mode over West and Central Africa • Courtesy F. Vitard (ECMWF) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  20. Real-time monitoring and forecast of intraseasonal variability ISV 10-25 days: Sahelian mode OLR • Major progresses during the last decade in documenting and understanding the African ISV • 3 main timescales: 25-90 days: • link to the MJO (e.g. Matthews 2004, Janicot et al. 2009) 10-25 days: • Quasi-Biweekly Zonal Dipole (QBZD, Mounier et al. 2008) • Sahelian mode (Janicot et al. 2010), • Variability of the Saharan Heat Low and link with midlatitudes (Chauvin et al. 2010, Roehrig et al. 2011) 3-10 days: • African Easterly Waves (e.g. Kiladis et al. 2006), • Synoptic variability of precipitable water (Couvreux et al. 2010, Poan et al. 2012), • Kelvin waves (Mounier et al. 2007) • Objectives: • Confront the climatology to the real world; • Investigate the forecast skill of the monsoon ISV, based on our current knowledge • Approach: • Address these 2 points through a real-time exercice évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  21. Project« ISV-monitoring » http://isv.sedoo.fr • Collaboration between France & Senegal (ANACIM, LPAO-SF): involving forecasters • Started in 2011 • Monsoon season JJAS • A real-time website, simple but easily and rapidly evolving, according to the encountered needs and ideas • Use of websites providing complementary information (broader context) • e.g. MJO: Wheeler’s website + NCEP • Regular briefing & reports (~2/week) between Toulouse and Dakar. évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  22. “Canonical” HLE “Canonical” HLW HLW – 16 June K m s-1 Shading: θ850 anomalies Black contours: raw θ850 Vectors: wind anomalies at 850 hPa Green contours: raw sea level pressure • High similarities with canonical events: they make sense in the “real world” Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day scale HLE – 7 June K m s-1 fdb évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  23. HLW5 HLW1 HLW2 HLW3 HLW4 HLE2 HLE1 HLE3 HLE4 Overview of 2011 ISV: 10-25-day-scale Heat Low intraseasonal index • 3 HLE events: 5-9 June, 18-24 July, 1-4 Sep • 4 HLW: 12-18 June, 25 June-1 July, 10-14 Aug,7-10 Sep • The season begins with a HLE event, favorable to the monsoon onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  24. Precipitable Water index and Rainfall: over Senegal Rain gauge precipitation PW anomalies Precip (mm day-1) PW anomalies (kg m-2) June July August Sept • High correlation (0.57) between precipitation and PW over Senegal, especially after the monsoon onset (0.63). • High potential of the PW variable Overview of 2011 ISV: 1-10-day scale Synoptic Variability of Precipitable Water (PW) PW anomalies [12N-20N] • Same characteristics as the canonical mode: frequency, propagation • Differences between the eastern and the western Sahel structures (as in Poan et al 2012) kg m-2 évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  25. WWRP-THORPEX African Regional Committee meeting 8-10 May 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusion for the « ISV-monitoring » • Conclusions: • 10-25 days • Monitoring of heat low variability provides some large-scale information on the monsoon system. The relationship with the onset (Roehrig et al. 2011) seems to work this year • The monitoring of the QBZD and Sahelian modes is less obvious (not shown). • Synoptic scales: • PW has a large potential: high predictability, strong relationship with precipitation. • Future: • New exercise in 2012: with new diagnostics and with higher involvement of Senegalese forecasters • Quantitative evaluation of: • Diagnostics (e.g., filtering effects) • Skills of ECMWF forecasts for different scales(PW, Heat Low…) évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

  26. Final Thoughts • AMMA will continue:- To mobilize, reinforce & coordinate the African & international communities working on the West African monsoon and its societal impacts. • - To combine Observations, Forecasts, Capacity building, Knowledge transfer to better anticipate and mitigate the human (and natural) impacts of weather and climate variability • Challenges to consolidate AMMA-Africa- To strengthen * visibility and support regionally & in each country * collaboration between research & application communities * integration of African PhDs in research & application (NHMS/EWS) centers- To maintain & improve observation network to forecast & monitor weather and climate variabilities and its impacts évaluation AERES 15-17 janvier 2008

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