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EG1106 GI: a primer

EG1106 GI: a primer. Applications for Health 10 th December 2004. Topics. Analysis of the problem - disease Layers of information - GIS Generation of a solution - risk mapping The future. Problem - Health. Health and disease often has a spatial component

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EG1106 GI: a primer

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  1. EG1106GI: a primer Applications for Health 10th December 2004

  2. Topics • Analysis of the problem - disease • Layers of information - GIS • Generation of a solution - risk mapping • The future

  3. Problem - Health • Health and disease often has a spatial component • Climatic, environmental and socio-economic variables affect health • Epidemics and outbreaks spread across a region – either as a function of movement of people or environmental factors

  4. Many countries are vulnerable to diseases directly influenced by the environment • Vector-borne diseases (like malaria) • Respiratory illnesses (like meningitis) • Water-borne diseases (like cholera) • Stress illnesses (heat-stroke or hypothermia) • Illnesses caused by “mechanical” effects of extreme weather events

  5. Problem - malaria • Malaria is a tropical disease • Symptoms are caused by a parasite (of the genus Plasmodium) • Parasite is transmitted by a Vector (female mosquito of the genus Anopheles) • Malaria kills mostly children (~2M/yr WHO estimate)

  6. Factors affecting components of malaria transmission HOST Genetic Immunological Behavioural PARASITE Genetic (inc. drug susceptibility) Immunological Ecological VECTOR Genetic (inc. insecticide susceptibility) Behavioural Ecological

  7. Stable transmission Unstable transmission

  8. Problem - Meningitis • Just as vector-borne diseases such as malaria are highly dependent on the weather, so too are respiratory illnesses such pneumonia and meningitis • Dry air may desiccate the upper respiratory tract (nasopharyngeal tract or NPT) • Since air entering lungs must have 43 gm-3 of absolute humidity and shortfall must be supplied by the NPT

  9. Problem - Meningitis • The drier the ambient air, the more moisture the NPT must supply to tidal air entering the lungs • As a general rule, air drier than 10 gm-3 absolute humidity may desiccate the NPT • If the NPT dries, bacteria are able to penetrate deep lung tissue – triggering the disease • The spread of a disease is enhanced by dry and dusty conditions (Harmattan)

  10. CSM – bacteria present in spinal fluid

  11. GIS • The problem of tackling any spatially dependent disease is more easy with a GIS system • Malaria has many layers – both natural (environmental) and socio-economic • The GIS layers paradigm allows models to be run easily

  12. Population size, location of clinics, prevalence, morbidity, mortality….etc Radiance and temperature Real-time rainfall and forecasts Vegetation types, soils and DEM

  13. Risk Mapping • We can use a GIS to host a combined risk model using a number of relevant epidemiological equations – driven by remotely sensed data • Forecasts of possible outbreaks can be used to assist mitigation activities

  14. The Future • New satellite systems (MSG, EnviSat, Ikinos etc) • New seasonal climate prediction models (DEMETER and Hadley Centre) • More GIS/RS skilled people in the scientific community willing to work in health!

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