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ET2050 Baseline 2030: An Slow Decline. TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012. ET2050 Work plan. What’s a Baseline scenario?. Scientifically-driven ( what may happen in the future? ). Politically-driven ( what we would like to happen? ). What’s a Baseline scenario?.
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ET2050 Baseline 2030: An Slow Decline TPG Meeting Bruxelles March 2012
What’s a Baseline scenario? Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
What’s a Baseline scenario? • A Baseline is a projection of current trends in absence of neither new policies nor unexpected events. • A Baseline should strive to generate consensus, to be a useful reference for all. • A Baseline will not likely comply with most official political targets, and it can be understood as a pessimistic but still realistic future ahead. • A Baseline is not the “Worse-case” Scenario. • A Baseline is realistic but not necessarily the most likely future
What’s a Baseline scenario? • A Baseline is a future evolution “with no drivers”: • No “Invisible Hand” • Spontaneous Behaviour do not result in social Self-organisation • No “Technology Panacea” • Neither Technology nor Free Markets are the solution • No “Political Reforms” • Government is part of the problem • Exploratory Scenarios could be based on exploring each of these three drivers (Behaviour, Technology, Government), in their most optimistic, but still realistic possibilities. • The VISION is a “Middle Path” –an ideal balance of the alternative Scenarios trade-off.
What’s a Baseline scenario? • The ET2050 Baseline Scenario: • Sticks to the principles of Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive growth as the leitmotifs of European policies, but to a large extend they will remain rhetoric, and ineffective. • Build on the Baseline scenarios developed in EU policy documents and recent studies. • The Territory is explicitly included in the scenario narratives • Territorial impacts (passive factor, that generates externalities) • Territorial conditions (active factor, that induces development)
What’s a Baseline scenario? Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?) Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?) Anchoring the visionary process!
BaselineSlow decline • Ageing Population • Declining Economy • Reactive Values • Reluctant Innovation • Scarce Energy • Subverted Proximities • Polarised Development • Hybrid Geographies • Reforms Bloked • EuropeanDeadlock
Ageing Population: Increasing ageing and labour scarcity in Europe due to persistent low fertility rates. More selected immigration during the next decade, targeted to areas where lower skill jobs are available, as well as to cosmopolitan centres where more talented people is attracted. North-South internal migration linked to residential tourism, as well as to rural areas. • Declining Economy. Continuation of present trends of globalisation, free trade, extension of resources through technological innovation. The gap in GDP and welfare between the EU and developing countries worldwide is reduced. A growing middle class emerge worldwide. European economy is more dependent on services and advanced tourism. Reindustrialisation limited to traditionally industrial zones. Increase of local markets for agricultural products. • Reactive Values. Salaries continue to loose purchase power and consumerism keep private debts high. Increasing perception of risks. More environmentally sensitive and reactive society. Identities attached to the territory gain importance, leading to selected closure from foreign activities and cultural influence. More protectionism and self-sustainability. Overprotected place-based strategies in wealthier communities. Informal relations still dominant in peripheral and less developed zones and conflictive neighbourhoods. • Reluctant innovation. The new technologic wave of innovations linked to nanotechnologies and biomedicine, energy and artificial intelligence will take longer than expected. Slow implementation of actual technologies (e.g. Smart Cities, Electric Grid…) in Europe. Unsuficcient and unproductive research, with significant but limited exceptions. • Energy Scarcity:Energy prices (oil, gas) rising faster than expected. In addition stronger impacts of Climate Change than projected by climate researchers, strong restrictive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (fuel, taxes, emission trading schemes) further reducing economic growth, even if just partially implemented. More energy efficiency. EU energy dependency increases since renewal resources are less developed than planned. Growing territorial conflicts linked to resource and risk management, for energy and also water.
Subvertit proximities.More productive long-distance transport and communications services connecting selected nodes in Europe to nodes worlwide. Neighboours become more distant and remote places much closer. Political borders overpassed by flows. Geographic proximities are subverted by networks connecting from the body to the globe, as well as by Virtual Communities. Paradoxically, this tendency reduces the value of the territory as position and increases its value as place, and landscape. • Polarised Development. Increasing polarisation among more developed and less developed regions, as well as between cities in regions and zones within cities, beyond traditional core-peripheral paradigms. Reduction of financial transfers and solidarity between regions and countries at EU level, as well as Cohesion Policies, due to the financial shortage of National administrations and growing Populism at National level. • Hybrid Geographies. Extraordinary divers evolution of territorial patterns, from compact cities and nodes around transport nodes, to more dispers urbanisation, fragmented and specialised developments in a general tendency towards more relaxed land regulations and increasing land ocupation. Europe become a “Middle Landscape”, largely composed by fuzzy urban-rural zones, with urban developments and housing customised to specific people’s and corporative needs. • Reforms Blocked. Increasing financial problems on public services related to social expenditures. Limited investments on infrastructure, and R&D focused on selected fields. Reduction of solidarity with Third Countries and increasing international conflicts. Territorial jurisdictions become less efficient, at all administrative scales. Either populists and technocrats in charge of bureaucracies unwilling to be reformed. Rising of corporative government. Political power partially transferred to international larger corporations. • European Deadlock: No significant advancement of European political integration, but increasing coordination on fiscal and labour policies among central EU countries while others have specific cooperation agreements with them, as well as with other neighbouring countries, and other countries worldwide, in a more complicated and variable institutional geometry.
Ageing Population Ageing Population: Increasing ageing and labour scarcity in Europe due to persistent low fertility rates. More selected immigration during the next decade, targeted to areas where lower skill jobs are available, as well as to cosmopolitan centres where more talented people is attracted. North-South internal migration linked to residential tourism, as well as to rural areas.
2. Declining Economy Declining Economy. Continuation of present trends of globalisation, free trade, extension of resources through technological innovation. The gap in GDP and welfare between the EU and developing countries worldwide is reduced. A growing middle class emerge worldwide. European economy is more dependent on services and advanced tourism. Reindustrialisation limited to traditionally industrial zones. Increase of local markets for agricultural products.
3. Reactive Values OkCupid Reactive Values. Salaries continue to loose purchase power and consumerism keeps private debts high. Increasing perception of risks. More environmentally sensitive and reactive society. Identities attached to the territory gain importance, leading to selected closure from foreign activities and cultural influence (excepts in cosmopolitan centres). More protectionism and self-sustainability. Overprotected place-based strategies in wealthier communities. Informal relations still dominant in peripheral and less developed zones and conflictive neighbourhoods.
4. Reluctant Innovation Reluctant innovation. The new technologic wave of innovations linked to nanotechnologies and biomedicine, energy and artificial intelligence will take longer than expected. Slow implementation of actual technologies (e.g. Smart Cities, Electric Grid…) in Europe. Unsuficcient and unproductive research, with significant but limited exceptions.
5. Scarce Energy Energy Scarcity: Energy prices (oil, gas) rising faster than expected. In addition stronger impacts of Climate Change than projected by climate researchers, strong restrictive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (fuel, taxes, emission trading schemes) further reducing economic growth, even if just partially implemented. More efficiency. EU energy dependency increases since renewal resources are less developed than planned. Growing territorial conflicts linked to resource and risk management, for energy and also water.
6. Subverted Proximities Subverted proximities. More productive long-distance transport and communications services connecting selected nodes in Europe to nodes worlwide. Neighboours become more distant and remote places much closer. Political borders overpassed by flows. Geographic proximities are subverted by networks connecting from the body to the globe, as well as by Virtual Communities. Paradoxically, this tendency reduces the value of the territory as position and increases its value as place, and landscape.
7. Polarised Development Average annual ERDF and CF commitment 2000-2006, mill. EUR Polarised Development. Increasing polarisation among more developed and less developed regions, as well as between cities and within cities, beyond traditional core-peripheral paradigms. Reduction of financial transfers and solidarity between regions and countries at EU level, as well as Cohesion Policies, due to the financial shortage of National administrations and growing Populism at National level.
7. Polarised Development Keeble Economic Potential & Reclus Blue Bannane (1980s)
8. Hybrid Geographies Hybrid Geographies. Extraordinary divers evolution of territorial patterns, from compact cities and nodes around transport nodes, to more dispers urbanisation, fragmented and specialised developments in a general tendency towards more relaxed land regulations and increasing land ocupation. Europe become a “Middle Landscape”, largely composed by fuzzy urban-rural zones. Urban developments and housing customised to people’s and corporative needs.
9. Reforms Bloked Reforms Blocked. Increasing financial problems on public services related to social expenditures. Limited investments on infrastructure, and R&D focused on selected fields. Reduction of solidarity with Third Countries and increasing international conflicts. Territorial jurisdictions become less efficient, at all administrative scales. Either populists and technocrats in charge of bureaucracies unwilling to be reformed. Rising of corporative government. Political power partially transferred to international larger corporations.
10. EuropeanDeadlock European Deadlock: No significant advancement of European political integration, but increasing coordination on fiscal and labour policies among central EU countries while others have specific cooperation agreements with them. Conflicts with neighbouring countries, and other countries worldwide, in a more complicated and variable institutional geometry.
