GSI for California Ocean Salmon Fisheries Management: Potential and Challenges

1. GSI for California Ocean Salmon Fisheries Management: Potential and Challenges Michael Mohr, NMFS Allen Grover, CDFG

2. Current Mgt – Framework FMP goals Sac. fall, Klamath fall chinook harvest rates; escapement goals ESA criteria CA coastal, Sac. River winter, CV spring chinook; CA coho harvest rates; time/area restrictions; non-retention

3. Current Mgt – Framework Harvest allocation: Klamath fall chinook Tribes Klamath River recreational KMZ ocean recreational OR:CA ocean commercial CA ocean commercial / recreational Economic considerations share economic opportunity relative to constraints emergency rule

4. Current Mgt – Set Season Pac. Council / Salmon Advisors (fisherman reps) season options proposed assessment: must meet FMP goals, ESA criteria Public input Pac. Council / Salmon Advisors season adopted time/area fisheries (few quota fisheries) 1 month process

5. Current Mgt – Assessment Abundance forecasts CWT database forecast harvest rates (depends on season) forecast time-area-fishery-specific harvest Escapement forecasts

6. Current Mgt – Strengths FMP goals, ESA criteria mostly met CWT data informative: mark-grp, age, recovery loc/date coastwide sampling programs over 20 years data

7. Current Mgt – Weaknesses Abundance is forecast (not known exactly) Harvest rates – annual variation / potential trends CWT data marked hatchery stocks only use of “indicator stocks” Klamath fall for California coastal OR, WA: electronic detection (bias)

8. Can GSI help?

9. Marked fish – CWT vs GSI

10. GSI – Potential Hatchery + natural confirm CWT representation of natural stk. Additional stocks ocean distribution information with age & freshwater monitoring harvest and maturation rates refinement of FMP goals, ESA criteria

11. GSI – Potential Non-lethal at-sea sampling (closed areas) best information: all time/areas sampled CWT sampling lethal: difficult given conservation constraints GSI sampling release mortality rate 31% Fine-scale time/area samples possible Fewer number of fish required vs CWT

12. GSI – Challenges Reporting group vs mgt stock units Klamath = Klamath fall + Klamath spring CV fall = Sac. fall + San Joaquin fall Uncertainty classification Klamath fall vs Rogue fall CV fall vs CV spring unclassifiable – bias? stocks of low abundance sample size requirements – depends on purpose

13. GSI – Challenges Age unknown scale reading for age scale ageing error currently being investigated in CA Lack of freshwater monitoring data in CA ocean distribution, but not harvest rates Interpretation of high impacts High harvest rate? High abundance?

14. At-Sea Sampling Catch location vs port-of-landing actual location: GPS may allow for finer-scale mgt (e.g. north/south SF) requires accurate block number, and catch/effort data from market receipt database Sampling considerations representative of fishery / stock distribution randomization cost: if fishing is slow, sampling burden not excessive

15. At-Sea Sampling Fishery-independent sampling pro/con GSI and CWT both benefit from “better catch-location data” If at-sea sampling not possible GSI samples can be taken dock-side

16. Real Time Mgt – Concept GSI or CWT: either could be used Preseason planning (as done now) expectation based on CWT historical database Actual results will deviate from expectation Modify regs in-season based on current-year GSI/CWT data

17. Real Time Mgt – Concept Fishing opportunity some times/areas: more other times/areas: less Example Klamath catch in SF lower than expected in May-June, allowing more days open in July Klamath catch in SF higher than expected in May-June, allowing fewer days open in July Season less predictable “Optimal” design?

18. Real Time Mgt – Challenges Costs unknown Requires real-time coordination/decisions fishermen, samplers, GSI analysts, fishery analysts, fishery mgrs, agencies, public Time frame weekly? current process requires one month can fisheries be closed quickly enough?

19. Real Time Mgt – Challenges West coast Vancouver Island, Canada only ocean fishery application thus far mgt process closed public does not participate quick decisions possible single stock to avoid California mgt process open public participates quick decisions impossible? several weak stocks to avoid allocation of harvest and impacts among sectors

20. Real Time Mgt – Challenges Abundance forecast accuracy problem for mgt quota or seasonal real-time or annual higher abundance than forecast forgone harvest opportunity lower abundance than forecast conservation goals may not be met

21. Real Time Mgt – Simulation GSI data collected next few years may allow for simulation of real-time mgt develop new ideas, identify new problems evaluate time necessary between all steps probable costs currently unrecognized benefits