Evaluation Plan for Geotargeted Efficiency Programs November 19, 2008

1. Evaluation Plan for Geotargeted Efficiency Programs November 19, 2008

2. Purpose of this presentation • Describe draft plan • EVT/DPS collaboration (as requested) • Gather feedback from this group • Reality Check • Ideas for improvement

3. Evaluation Purpose • Proof of concept • What level of savings can targeted EE deliver? • How fast? How much does it cost? • Are savings delivered to constrained circuits? • How? • Through Process Evaluation • Verification of Savings Claims • Correlation of savings to the constraint in question

4. Not the Purpose! • The Evaluation will NOT determine if a particular transmission or distribution investment has been deferred or avoided • (but results can help!)

5. DPS getting help (Phew!) • Plan to hire a contractor • EEU Evaluation Budget • Contractor to help develop selected areas of evaluation • Kick off meeting where work plan is discussed

6. Evaluation Boundaries • Four Original Geotargeted Areas • Southern Loop • North Chittenden • St. Albans • Newport/Derby • 18 months of program activity • June/July 2007 – December 2008 • Leverage DPS ongoing evaluations

7. Five-piece evaluation framework • Target area selection, collaboration efforts • Program implementation • Savings verification • Correlation of savings results at constraint • Long term evaluation

8. Target Selection Process Eval • Goal: Increase confidence that selected areas have undergone robust review • Review and make recommendations as to • Broad process including all parties • Development of Target area proposals • DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009

9. Target Selection Process Eval • How were the original target areas chosen? • How did information barriers and time constraints affect the choices made? • What are perspectives of key parties regarding process & communication?

10. Implementation Process Eval • Goal: Reflection to help inform decisions • Program design and implementation process • How overall budgets are best utilized • DPS Contractor/Surveys/Spring 2009 • Surveys of EVT/Customers & Trade Allies/etc.

11. Implementation Process Eval • What were lessons learned? • How were contract goals set and did they affect program design? • Are there opportunities to improve effectiveness? • How did GT focus affect statewide delivery of efficiency resources? • Were lost opportunities created?

12. Savings Verification • Goal: Verify EVT GT Savings in each targeted area • Current DPS Contractor June/July 2009 • Researchable questions include: • How do GT area savings compare w/ non-GT? • MWh and MW savings, cost/kWh, TRB, etc. • Are GT interventions a ‘no regrets’ strategy?

13. System Impact Evaluation • Goal: Determine EE savings correlation to particular circuit • DPS Contractor - Analysis of Utility & Verification data • What is available? • July - October 2009

14. System Impact Evaluation • What are trends shown by substation data analysis? • Before/during/after implementation of GT services? • Compared to forecasted load growth? • Is it possible to detect GT impacts at substation level? • Were there other influences that significantly affected circuits positively or negatively?

15. Long-term evaluation questions • Not necessarily answered in the next year or by this process • What is correlation between savings at ISO peaks vs. local/VELCO peaks? • How do we verify current T&D capacity assumptions and track any deferral decisions? • What additional information is necessary to help assess effectiveness of GT programs? • Others?

16. The End Thoughts/Ideas/Questions? THANK YOU! TJ Poor Department of Public Service 802-828-0544 Walter.poor@state.vt.us