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B OARD of G OVERNORS

B OARD of G OVERNORS. Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment. Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Which Occupations are Undersupplied? Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow? Jan Ignash, Vice Chancellor, Academic and Student Affairs March 8, 2013 www.flbog.edu.

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B OARD of G OVERNORS

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  1. BOARD ofGOVERNORS Commission on Higher Education Access and Attainment Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Which Occupations are Undersupplied? Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow? Jan Ignash, Vice Chancellor, Academic and Student AffairsMarch 8, 2013www.flbog.edu

  2. Supply-Demand Gap Analysis: Agenda • Meeting Agenda • Introduction • Which Occupations are Undersupplied? • Gap Analysis Methodology • List of Undersupplied Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s • Which Academic Programs Might Need to Grow? • Focus on Computer Occupations

  3. Introduction to the Supply-Demand Gap Analysis vs

  4. Gap Analysis Methodology: Supply vs • SOURCE: Supply is based on 2010-11 degrees awarded data as reported by 396 Florida institutions to the National Center for Education Statistics. • LIMITATION: The methodology includes all graduates, including those who left Florida. We do not yet have employment or continuing education data for students who leave Florida for each academic program. This is a work in progress. • LIMITATION: The methodology does not include any consideration of occupational in-migration, occupational retention, and attrition.

  5. Supply: Top Degrees Awarded in Florida (in 2010-11) By Discipline Groups and Degree Level Note 1: All Others include 54,925 Associate’s degrees assigned to ‘General Studies’ . Note 2: An asterisk (*) indicates ten or fewer.

  6. Gap Analysis Methodology: Demand vs • SOURCE: Demand is based on the long-term (2012-2020) occupational employment projections of annual job openings (growth and replacements) by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Labor Market Statistics Center. • KEY DECISION: Previously, this Commission agreed that the educational attainment levels for the occupational data would be based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) national taxonomy of educational levels.

  7. Demand: Florida’s Top Occupational Groups By Projected Annual Job Openings (2012-2020)

  8. Gap Analysis Methodology: Gap Analysis vs • In an effort to limit the problem of overstating supply due to occupations being linked to multiple academic disciplines, the supply data was adjusted to only count the target occupation’s share of non-managerial job openings available for qualified graduates. ADJUSTED SUPPLY In this example, only 7% of the total supply (3,093 graduates) is used in the gap analysis because the financial analysts only comprises 7% of the 4,641 non-managerial jobs available to these graduates. So, the adjusted supply is 3,093 x .07 = 217.

  9. Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations Typically Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree for Entry

  10. Gap Analysis Methodology: Contextual Metrics vs • Entry Wage • Projected 2012-2020 Annual Growth Rates • 2011-2012 Trend in Help Wanted Online Advertisements (HWOL) • Warehouse Indicator • Supply from Lower and Higher Educational Levels

  11. Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations at the Bachelor’s Level: Contextual Metrics

  12. Florida’s Most Undersupplied Occupations at the Bachelor’s Level: Additional Context

  13. Top 15 Undersupplied Occupations at the Bachelor’s Level: Current Supply by Sector

  14. In Conclusion: Which Programs Might Need to Grow? Focus on Undersupplied Computer Occupations

  15. Bachelor’s Degrees in Academic Disciplines Related to Top Undersupplied Computer Occupations by Sector

  16. The List: Top Educational Program Areas for Growth (See hand-out.)

  17. Next Steps • Choosing the highest areas of program need, based upon the current gap analysis • Developing a process to respond to the need • RFP Process • Factors to include • The role of partnerships • Cost considerations • Identifying “who should grow” • Considering near-term, immediate needs as well as longer-term needs

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