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The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy

The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy. Ben Kirtman Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies And George Mason University. Science Questions. How Does Internal Atmospheric Dynamics Impact Climate Variability? Is ENSO Stochastically Driven or Self-Sustained?

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The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy

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  1. The Interactive Ensemble Coupled Modeling Strategy Ben Kirtman Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies And George Mason University

  2. Science Questions • How Does Internal Atmospheric Dynamics Impact Climate Variability? • Is ENSO Stochastically Driven or Self-Sustained? • How Do Errors in Internal Atmospheric Dynamics Impact Climate Predictability? • Is it Possible to Combine Multiple Imperfect Climate Models to Improve Climate Simulations and Better Quantify Uncertainty?

  3. Standard Approach • A Posteriori Combinations of Ensemble Realizations (Coupled and Uncoupled) • Does Not Isolate How Internal Dynamics Impacts Evolution of the Coupled System • Want to Employ Ensemble Averaging As the Coupled System Evolves

  4. SST CAM CAM_MOM3 Heat Flux Momentum Flux MOM

  5. SST COLA COLA_MOM3 Heat Flux Momentum Flux MOM

  6. SST CAM COLA Heat Flux Momentum Flux MOM CAM_COLA_MOM3

  7. SST CAM COLA Heat Flux Momentum Flux MOM COLA_CAM_MOM3

  8. Computational Issues (I) • Load Balance Between Oceanic and Atmospheric Components • More Processors • Communication of Coupling Information • Frequency Can be a Problem • Data Management • Dataportal (little MSS)

  9. Computational Issues (II) • Use (Prospect) Blackforest, Bluesky • Conversion from Compaq to IBM Difficult • Communication: Did Not Know the Right Questions to Ask

  10. Computational Issues (II) • Use (Prospect) Blackforest, Bluesky • Conversion from Compaq to IBM Difficult • Communication: Did Not Know the Right Questions to Ask • Documentation Incomplete (e.g., loadleveler geometry) • Consulting Support Excellent • Usage (Typically 1 Node for each Component) • Blackforest: 4x75 min/simulation month (for each atmosphere) and 4x75 (for each ocean) • Bluesky: 8x20 min /simulation month (for each atmosphere) and 8x20 (for each ocean)

  11. Example of CPU (GAU) Usage • Bluesky 12 Atmospheres and 1 Ocean 100 year simulation 13 * 8 * 20 min/month * 1200 month = 41,600 CPU hours In Regular Queue Simulation Takes about 30-50 days In Practice We Get About 2-3 Experiments Completed Per Year This Should Double Every Year Over the Next 5 Years

  12. Data Management • Some Reliance on MSS • Primarily Job Recovery • Initially ftp’d Data Back to COLA • Access to dataportal Grads-Dods-Server (GDS) Has Changed My Life • Heavy usage of /ptmp

  13. Concluding Remarks • NCAR Facility Ideal for Testing Interactive Ensemble Coupling Strategy • Demand on Computing to Steadily Increase Over the Next 5 Years • Need for Local Visualization of Remote Data Large and Increasing

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