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Pigs and Pig Meat

Situation and Outlook Conference 2008. Pigs and Pig Meat. Michael A Martin Specialist Pig Development Officer. Outline. Margin over Feed Costs Non Feed Costs Production Crisis Price Prospects Feed Prospects. Margin Over Feed Costs 1991-2007. Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices.

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Pigs and Pig Meat

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  1. Situation and Outlook Conference 2008 Pigs and Pig Meat Michael A Martin Specialist Pig Development Officer

  2. Outline • Margin over Feed Costs • Non Feed Costs • Production • Crisis • Price Prospects • Feed Prospects Pig Development Unit

  3. Margin Over Feed Costs 1991-2007 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices Pig Development Unit

  4. Margin Over Feed Cost Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices Pig Development Unit

  5. Margin over Feed Cost • Average margin has been 47.6c per kg dead weight • Margin required to break even was Source: PigSys Report 2007 Pig Development Unit

  6. Non Feed Costs • Low profitability means that some non feed costs are deferred • Manure costs set to increase from 2011 • Capital investment in dry sow housing by 2013 means higher interest and building depreciation charges • Units need capital investment Pig Development Unit

  7. Pig Prices and Feed Costs per kg 2007-8 Pig Development Unit

  8. Margin Over Feed per kg Dead 2007-8 2007 2008 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices Pig Development Unit

  9. Financial Losses July 07-June 08 Pig Development Unit

  10. Margin Over Feed per kg Dead 2007-8 2007 2008 Pig Development Unit

  11. Finisher Pig Prices 2007-8 WK 49 2007 2008 Teagasc Monitor Pig and Feed Prices Pig Development Unit

  12. Production • Teagasc estimate a decline of 5500 sows from Jan 2007 • CSO show herd 8000 sows less than Teagasc estimate Pig Development Unit

  13. Sow Productivity PigSys recorded herds are producing 1.75 pigs more per sow per year than those in unrecorded herds Pig Development Unit

  14. Pig Slaughterings: All Ireland DAFF and DARDNI • Very small decrease in kill in Jan-Sept 2008 • Over latest 13 weeks average weekly kill was 75,023 down from 76990 in 2007 Pig Development Unit

  15. What Needs to be Done Now? • Recommence pig slaughtering immediately – financial and pig welfare • Restore consumer confidence in Irish pig meat • Reclaim home and export markets • Maintain pig kill – no build up of pigs on units • Recovery plan for each unit Pig Development Unit

  16. Pig Price Prospects EU pig meat supplies will be reduced in 2009 EU Pig Meat Forecasts Pig Development Unit

  17. Feed Price Prospects Cereal prices are considerably lower than 2007 Pig Development Unit

  18. Summary • Sector is facing serious difficulties • Economic climate impacts on prospects • Feed prices to decline but GM approval issue remains • Non feed costs to increase • Pig supplies reduced • Difficult year ahead Pig Development Unit

  19. Thank You

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