Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center

1. Operational Hydrologic Forecasts Challenges at the North Central River Forecast Center 18 November 2013 First Vinogradov’s Conference St. Petersburg, Russia

2. Presentation Outline • Review of the Forecasting Process • Forecasting Centers • NCRFC Highlights • Forecasting the Red River • Challenges • Opportunities

3. NCRFC Forecasting Process • Review of the Forecasting Process • Forecasting Centers • NCRFC Highlights • Forecasting the Red River • Challenges • Opportunities

4. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Weather Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, Missouri Space Weather Prediction Center College Park, Maryland Boulder, Colorado NCEP Central Operations Storm Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Norman, Oklahoma Tropical Prediction Center (National Hurricane Center) Miami, Florida

5. Weather Forecast Offices

6. River Forecast Centers

7. NCRFC Area of Responsibility Forecast Point Locations Hudson Bay Drainage Great Lakes Drainage • 426 Forecast Points • 1173 Sub-watersheds Major drainages • Hudson Bay • Mississippi • Great Lakes Mississippi R. Drainage

8. Forecasting Process

9. Forecasting the Red River • Review of the Forecasting Process • Forecasting Centers • NCRFC Highlights • Forecasting the Red River • Challenges • Opportunities

10. 1989 Spring Runoff Forecast

11. 2006 Spring Runoff Forecast

12. 2009 Spring Runoff Forecast

13. 2010 Spring Runoff Forecast

14. 2011 Spring Runoff Forecast

15. 2013 Spring Runoff Forecast

16. 1989 Spring Runoff Forecast

17. Red River Spring Melt Forecast: our conclusion • NCRFC had the right Temperature and Precipitation forecasts from NCEP • Yet, the Snow-17 and Sacramento Models greatly over-predicted the crest and the runoff volume at Fargo • Why? • Drought conditions during Summer and Fall: development of macropores on the clay? • Effect of subsurface drains is not included in the NWS models • Effect of surface ponding is not included in the NWS models

18. Summary and Working Hypothesis • Traditionally, the NWS models under-forecasted the Red River of the North flows during the Spring Runoff events • Drought seems to be playing an important role on a watershed subject to climate extremes: (-40C to +40C) by compacting the Fargo Clay soil and creating large preferential flow paths, not modeled under the current hydrology models • Heavy snow during the winter time covers the preferential flow paths and blocks rapid infiltration through them in fast-snow-melting events (1989). During slow events (2013), the soil thaws, and opens the preferential flow paths to fast infiltration. • It is unknown what the effect of the tile drains is on the overall shape of the hydrograph. A major problem is to identify where the drains are, and how they are operated. • Flooded fields in areas blocked by road embankments also contribute to excessive infiltration.

19. Presentation Outline • Review of the Forecasting Process • Forecasting Centers • NCRFC Highlights • Forecasting the Red River • Challenges • Opportunities

20. Opportunities • Understand the hydrologic cycle in soils like the Fargo clay • Use remote sensing techniques to identify: • Location and hydrologic/hydraulic properties of tile drains/soil/crop in farms (where is the water going?) • Ponded fields, volume of water and rates of release (where is the water going?) • Develop new models, or adapt existing models to represent the hydrologic processes, both natural and man-made, on the Red River Watershed.

21. Hydrograph Model Possible Changes?

22. Thank you! Questions?

23. Hyperlinks

24. Red River Soil Map Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

25. Bubbles in a Flooded Field Courtesy Fargo Firefighter, via Grand Forks WFO

26. Infiltration Test at Campbell, MN Courtesy Roy Mayeda, Campbell HS Science Teacher

27. Red River Soil Profiles Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

28. Red River Soil Prismatic Columns Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

29. Fargo Clay Soil Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU

30. Farm Tile Drains • Question: how many miles of tile drains have been installed on the Bois de Sioux River (5.2% of the Red River above Pembina) • (Hint: Fargo has 850 km of city streets and Grand Forks has about 390 km)

31. Tile Drain Under Construction Courtesy Prof. David Hopkins, NDSU