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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns. Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14 th November 2013. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs. Leading Risk Factors for Health Attributable Mortality, 2004. Source: WHO, 2009. Deaths from NCDs Worldwide, by Income Group.

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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

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  1. Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14th November 2013

  2. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs

  3. Leading Risk Factors for HealthAttributable Mortality, 2004 Source: WHO, 2009

  4. Deaths from NCDsWorldwide, by Income Group Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008

  5. Obesity: a Global Epidemic • In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas • Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US • Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China % of adult population

  6. The OECD/WHO CDP Model Cancers Stroke Ischemic heart disease

  7. A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package

  8. What Can Prevention Achieve?

  9. Prevention Keeps HealthyYears of Life Free of NCDs Cardiovascular diseases Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast)

  10. An Affordable Prevention Package 1.2 0.4

  11. Prevention is a Good InvestmentImpact on Health Expenditure

  12. % Decrease Rrequiredin Fat Consumption

  13. Scenario 1 Results

  14. SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines

  15. Scenario2 Results

  16. Scenario2 Results

  17. Scenario2 Results

  18. Key Policy Implications • Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues • Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy • Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains • Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term

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