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Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America

Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America. Anji Seth International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Maisa Rojas, University of Chile Brant Liebmann, NOAA CDC. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003.

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Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America

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  1. Analysis of Daily Rainfall from a Nested Modeling System for South America Anji Seth International Research Institute for Climate Prediction Maisa Rojas, University of Chile Brant Liebmann, NOAA CDC Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  2. Outline • Climatology of daily rainfall (V. Kousky, CPC) • Spatial Characteristics • Observed Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985 • Simulated Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985 • Temporal characteristics • Observed Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985 • Simulated Daily Rainfall: FMAM 1983, 1985 • Sensitivity: Local Forcing,Domain Effects • Preliminary Conclusions Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  3. V. Kousky, CPC • Climatology (1979-1995) • Computed for Brazil • Typical station coverage Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  4. V. Kousky, CPC Frequency (>1mm) % days/year Annual Rainfall Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  5. Frequency (>1mm) % days/month • Central and Southeast: • >85% (summer) • <25% (winter) • Northwest: • >75% year round • Northeast: • >65% (jan-may) • <15% (jun-dec) V. Kousky, CPC Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  6. Frequency (>10 mm) % days/month Peak frequencies in The northwest drop to 50% V. Kousky, CPC Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  7. Frequency (>25 mm) % days/month Peak frequencies in The northwest drop to 10% (summer months) Southern Brazil has Heavy rainfall events year round V. Kousky, CPC Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  8. Station Coverage for Observed Daily Rainfall B. Liebmann, CDC 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  9. Rainfall Frequency (>1 mm) % days/JFMAM 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  10. Rainfall Frequency (>10 mm) % days/JFMAM 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  11. Rainfall Frequency (>25 mm) % days/JFMAM 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  12. RegCM2 (Giorgi et al., 1993) • 110x145x14 • 60 km resolution • Remote: • Reanalyses 83,85 • CCM3(x3) 83,85 • Local: deforestation Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  13. 1983 1985 Observed RegCM Frequency >1 mm Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  14. 1983 1985 Observed RegCM Frequency >10 mm Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  15. 1983 1985 Observed RegCM Frequency >25 mm Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  16. Observed Daily Rainfall, 19831985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  17. Observed Rainfall Frequency 19831985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  18. Simulated, Observed Daily Rainfall 1985 1983 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  19. Simulated, Observed Daily Rainfall 1985 1983 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  20. Simulated*, Observed Daily Rainfall 1985 1983 *GCM>RegCM Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  21. Simulated*, Observed Daily Rainfall 1985 1983 *GCM>RegCM Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  22. Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  23. Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  24. Observed, Simulated Rainfall Frequency ST/RR/GR1/GR2/GR3 1983 1985 Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  25. Preliminary Conclusions • Spatial Characteristics – using thresholds of 1,10,and 25 mm • Observed Daily Rainfall frequencies were notable higher in 1985 than 1983 in Nordeste and the Amazon. • Simulated Daily Rainfall reproduced the observed patterns in the two years remarkably well. • Temporal characteristics – time series and frequency distributions showed • Observed Daily Rainfall was deficient throughout the 1983 season in Nordeste and early in the season in the Amazon. • Simulated Daily Rainfall captured the observed frequency distributions well in the reanalyses> RegCM Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  26. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  27. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  28. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

  29. Workshop on Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models ICTP, Trieste June 2003

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