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Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling

Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú. Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling. Yamina Silva. Using RegCM for Climate Studies. Precipitation climatology in Peru Challenge for modeling in complex terrain.

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Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling

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  1. Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru and new perspective for climate modeling Yamina Silva

  2. Using RegCM for Climate Studies • Precipitation climatology in Peru • Challenge for modeling in complex terrain. • Using the models for weather prediction (MM5) • Climate change studies for a pilot region

  3. Precipitation Climatology Lima (13 masl), annual precip. 16mm Iquitos (126 masl), annual precip. 2770mm Huayao (3,350masl) Annual precip. 756mm

  4. Challenge for modeling in complex terrain Northern coast (positive rainfall anomaly) Chira-Piura basin 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in Piura region 1400 El Niño 1983 El Niño 1992 El Niño 1998 El Niño 1987 1200 Piura Tumbes Talara 1000 800 mm/month 600 Huge positive anomaly in temp. And precip. during “EL Niño" events: 400 200 0 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 • Agriculture (Rice, limon, cotton, etc). • Fishery • Floods and diseases.

  5. Precipitation vs SST Ref.: Dr. R.Woodman, 1998

  6. 150 ANGASMAYO HUANCAVELICA 100 50 0 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 79 The Central Andes 500-5000 meters (negative anomaly?) Mantaro basin 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the central Andes • 40% of electric energy of Perú is generated by a hydroelectric power plant on this river (Mantaro river).

  7. The Altiplano of Peru 3000-4000 meters (negative anomaly) El Titicaca basin 1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the Altiplano Region 300 Lagunillas Juliaca 250 200 mm/month 150 100 50 0 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Negative anomaly during El Niño events (1983, 1992)

  8. Some experiences with the MM5 • Weather forecasting • Modeling some extreme events during the summer • Simulation with high resolution domain (nesting) • Evaluation of cumulus and PBL schemes

  9. ACTUAL CONFIGURATION OF MM5 RUNNING IN PERU MM5 Version 3.3: Nesting with 3 Domains: South America: 54x54km (180x205) Perú: 18x18km (124x100) Lima: 6x6km (100x100) 60 hours forecast Cumulus: Grell Explicit: Simple ice PBL: Gayno-Seaman IC & BC: AVN WS Compaq ES-40 4 CPU, 2 GB RAM 500MHz 18.2 GB HD (2 HD)

  10. Precipitation forecast for the 3 domains

  11. Extreme precipitation events during the 18 and 19 March of 2001 (North of Peru, Piura) 24 hour precipitation (MM5, 18km resolution) 24 hour precipitation (estimated by GOES) Pronostico del Modelo MM5

  12. CPS sensibility • GOES Estimated precipitation • (Vicente, at.al, 1998)

  13. Evaluation of Grell convective scheme March 2000 September 1999 • GOES Estimated precipitation (Vicente, at.al, 1998) • vs MM5 precipitation - 24 hours acumulated

  14. Grell convective scheme March 2000 September 1999 Duringthe intense rainy period, Grell CPS tends to overstimate the precip.

  15. CORRELACION INDEX GRELL CPS * Is equal to 0.78 if we not consider the model values greeter then 10mm (M>10) KUO CPS • Ecuatorial region: 80ºW-40ºW / 10ºS-10ºN, • Subtropical region:80ºW-40ºW / 30ºS-10ºS. Silva and Takahashi, 2000 (MM5 Users workshop)

  16. What we expect of using RegCM for Climate Studies • Climate variability, El Niño response for a regional (local) scale • Simulate some extreme events during the rainy season • Using RegCM for climate change studies (high resolution) => Pilot points for studing: 1. Mantaro Basin (central Andes) 2. Chira-Piura basin (northern coast) 3. Titicaca basin (southern Andes)

  17. The GCM could represent the general pattern, but not the detals, specially over the Andes Monthly precipitation (mm/day) March 2003 (GCM CPTEC/COLA, T42)

  18. Domain 1 for South America: 80km (90x110), 11 levels, • IC-BC: CPTEC/COLA GCM, 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (GOES estimated)

  19. Domain for Peru: 30km (90x110), 11 levels, • IC-BC: RegCM Domain 1 (80km), 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (GOES estimated)

  20. RegCM vs Observed precipitation Monthly Precipitation amount (mm/month) March 2003 (Observed-DCPs ) Precipitation rate (mm/day) March 2003 (RegCM)

  21. Sub-project: Integrated local evaluation in the Mantaro Basin. National project for Climate change and adaptation, supported by the government of Holland: 2003-2005 Objectives: • Interannual climate variability studies and extend it for climate change. • Identify vulnerable areas • Questions? If the global temperature increase? • How will change the water resources in the basin? • What could be the agricultural impact? • Social impacts, etc…

  22. Mining region Agricultural region Hydroelectric station

  23. High resolution domain: HOPES!: Non-Hydrostatic RegCM, with nesting, using the global model scenarios.

  24. Conclusion • The climate variability studies in the regional/local scales using the numerical climate models are an important issue for Peru, and also the challenge because of the complex terrain. • We hope that the climate change scenarios for Peru using the RegCM, will became reality and the results will help for the future national planes. • The collaborations in the climate variability and climate changes studies are very welcome.

  25. Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima Instituto Geofísico del Perú Many thanks! E-mail: yamina@chavin.igp.gob.pe

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