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Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO

Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO. Robert Stefanski/José Camacho Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department. Outline. Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture WIS and WIGOS

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Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO

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  1. Seasonal Forecasting and Weather/Climate information at WMO Robert Stefanski/José Camacho Agricultural Meteorology Division Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch Climate and Water Department

  2. Outline • Seasonal Forecasts and Agriculture • WIS and WIGOS • Global Framework for Climate Services • Summary GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  3. Climate Prediction and Agriculture GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  4. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) • First established in 1996 at a Meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe. • Gained momentum as a regional response to the major 1997–1998 El Niño event. • RCOF Concept was pioneered in Africa and spread worldwide. • WMO and a number of national, regional and international organizations (e.g., NOAA, IRI, Meteo France, World Bank, etc.) have supported their growth and expansion. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  5. Existing RCOFs worldwide http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/outlooks/climate_forecasts.html GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  6. RCOF Concept • Climate information including predictions/outlooks substantial benefit in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate variability and change. • RCOFs have the responsibility to produce and disseminate a regional assessment (using a consensus-based approach) of regional climate for the upcoming season. • Built into the RCOF process is a regional networking of the climate service providers and user-sector representatives. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  7. GHACOF Products & Applications GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  8. www.dmcsee.org GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  9. User Community for Climate Forecasts • Producers use climate information to assist with many decisions: • Crop choice • Choice of cultivar (early or late) • Mixture of crops • Fertiliser use • Pest and disease control • Timing of the harvest • Irrigation scheduling • Area planted to a given crop (and/or rotation of fields); • Timing and amount of tillage • Stocking rates. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Source: Huda 2006

  10. W • CAgM Expert Team Meeting on Climate Change/Variability and Medium- to Long-Range Predictions for Agriculture, Brisbane, Australia February 20052007 Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol 58, No. 10 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  11. Preparedness information on which to make a decision: DSS ‘Whopper Cropper’ – integrates climate forecasting, crop simulation modelling, and agronomic information. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva Source: Stone & Meinke 2006

  12. WIS and WIGOS GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  13. Current situation: GTS WWW GTS Regional/Specialized Meteorological Centres Meteorological and R&D Satellite Operator Centres World Meteorological Centres National MeteorologicalCentres interconnects GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  14. Goals of WMO Information System (WIS) • GTS needs to be open to all WMO activities to provide time critical information exchange • Internet should be a part of WIS to allow support of less critical requirements • The continuous improvement and adaptation of new technologies in the GTS should be maintained. • The WIS should be open to more than just WMO programs allowing partners to participate • Need seamless discovery, access and retrieval (DAR) across all WMO systems, including collaborators and partners. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  15. WMO Information System (WIS) DCPC NC NC NC/ DCPC Managed, Regional and Internet NC NC/DCPC Communication Networks NC GISC NC GISC GISC NC DCPC DCPC GISC GISC Satellite Dissemination NC NC SatelliteTwo-Way System NC NC On-demand“pull” World Radiation Centre Regional Instrument Centres International Organizations (IAEA, CTBTO, UNEP, FAO.. ) 5 GAW World Data Centres GCOS Data Centres Global Run-off Data Centre IRI and other climate research institutes Universities Regional Climate Centres Commercial Service Providers Internet WMO World Data Centres Real-time “push” National Centres (NC) Global Information System Centres (GISC) Data Collection and Production Centres (DCPC) Data communication network GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  16. WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) • Different diverse WMO observing systems; • Need for integration of these diverse obs. systems in a holistic approach; • WIGOS – the organizational response of WMO to this need. • Comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable system of observing systemsbased on the RQs of all WMO Programmes; • Together with WIS it aims to deliver an WMO end-to-end system of systems designed: • to improve the Members’ capability to provide wide range of services, • to better serve the needs of research programmes. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  17. WMO Congress (Resolution 30) • Towards Enhanced Integration between the WMO Observing Systems • Strategic objective of WMO; • Parallel planning and implementation with WIS (end-to-end system of systems) GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  18. WIGOS - framework • WIGOS will be an organizational framework facilitating standardization and interoperability and ensuring: • availability of, and real-, near-real- and non-real-time access to, required good-quality data/products and associated metadata; • data quality standards are documented, met and sustained. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  19. WIGOS - purpose • The organizational, programmatic, procedural and governance framework will provide: • a single focus for the operational and management functions of all WMO obs. systems and • a mechanism for interactions with WMO co-sponsored observing systems. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  20. WIGOS - relationship • WIGOS will respect: • Partnership, • Ownership and • Data-sharing policy of all obs. components and partner organizations. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  21. Global Framework for Climate Services GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  22. Global Framework for Climate Services • Goal: • Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climateinformation and prediction into planning, policy and practice. WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE - 3Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 2009 GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  23. GFCS: Objectives • Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users; • Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction; • Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis; • Cooperative global infrastructure to foster sharing new advances in science and information. GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  24. Climate Services Cycle Delivery of Products Climate Services Information Systems Climate User InterfaceProgramme Development of information and products Capacity Building Application of Products Research, Modelling and Prediction Observations Monitoring and Analysis GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  25. Status of GFCS • Approved by WMO Congress in June 2011; • Inter-Agency Consultation Meeting on User Interface Platform for GFCS (FAO HQ – 26-28 Sep 2011) • Extraordinary Session of the WMO Congress in 2012 to address the development of the draft GFCS implementation plan and establishment of Rules of Procedure for the Intergovernmental Board GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  26. Summary • RCOFs structure supporting agricultural decision making • WIS as a open concept to provide weather and climate information to a wider community than the NMHS. • WIGOS provide common ground for better technical management of observations in a world scale GEO GLAM Meeting, 22-23 September 2011, Geneva

  27. Thank You World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland

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