National Missile Defense Study

1. © Copyright 2006. Opinion Research Corporation. All rights reserved. Founded 1938 National Missile Defense Study Conducted for Prepared by July, 2007

2. Table of Contents

3. Background and Methodology Questions was included in the CARAVAN® omnibus survey from Opinion Research Corporation in order to determine America’s views about national security in general and missile defense in particular. Results are based on telephone interviews conducted July 19-22, 2007 among a sample of 1,023 adults (510 men and 513 women) 18 years of age and older, in the continental United States. Interviews were weighted by four variables: age, sex, geographic region, and race, to ensure reliable and accurate representation of the total adult population. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level is plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample. Smaller sub-groups will have larger error margins.

4. Executive Summary Founded 1938

5. Executive Summary This survey by the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance clearly shows that there is widespread concern among Americans about the threat posed to the United States by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction. Further, there is substantial non-partisan support for the US having a missile defense system. In fact, most Americans believe the US already has such a system in place. While there are differences in the degree of support for missile defense, there is a consensus cutting across all partisan and demographic lines that the US should have a missile defense system and this year’s missile defense military budget request should be met. • One in three Americans (32%) believe the President and Congress need to address the combined issues of homeland security (20%) and national defense issues (12%) this year. These issues, along with health care (21%) and education (13%) are America’s priority issues. • Given a list of possible threats to the US, terrorism is rated as the most or second most significant threat (47%), followed by dependence on Middle Eastern oil (30%), proliferation of nuclear weapons (26%), unpredictable countries like North Korea (26%), Iran’s development of nuclear weapons (22%) and China’s growing power (13%). • Six in ten Americans think that the threat to the US of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction is very real and someone will do it or it has a good chance of happening. Only 4% think there is no chance this could occur, while 35% think it could happen but probably won’t. • Republicans are more concerned, as are women.

6. Fully 83% of Americans think the United States should have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the country from an attack by missiles that might contain WMD, including 69% who strongly agree. • While Republicans are all but unanimous in thinking the US should have such a system, they are joined by 78% of Independents and Democrats; 64% of Independents and 59% of Democrats strongly think the US should have such a system. • Even three in four Americans who don’t think it is likely there will be a missile attack on the US think the country should have a missile defense system, including 55% who believe that strongly. • Three in four Americans (75%) believe the US has a missile defense system, including 40% who are ‘sure’ there is such a system. Only 18% don’t think the US has such a system or are sure the country doesn’t. In fact, missile defense proponents are more likely than average to think the US already has such a system, indicating that education is needed to motivate them to actively support development and deployment of a missile defense system. • Seven in ten Americans (71%) think Congress should support the military’s request that 2.2% of this year’s military budget go towards development and deployment of missile defense. Support is across the board, including 90% of Republicans, 67% of Independents and 60% of Democrats. • Two in three Americans (68%) think a missile defense system is affordable, while only 27% think it isn’t. Fifty-nine percent of Democrats, as well as 65% of Independents and 83% of Republicans think it is affordable.

7. Eight in ten Americans (81%) think missile defense should be an important part of US efforts for homeland security and public safety, with 64% strongly agreeing with this. • Republicans are all but unanimous in support (93%), although 75% of Independents and 79% of Democrats agree as well (including 57% of Independents and 61% of Democrats who strongly agree). • Three in four Americans (75%) think the US should continue to develop and build a missile defense system to assure that the entire US is protected from all missile ranges, while only 21% think development should stop and the system limited; 62% strongly believe development should continue. • Once again, large majorities of Independents (70%), Democrats (65%) and Republicans (92%) think development should continue. Slightly more than half of both Independents and Democrats strongly believe it should continue. • About three in four Americans (73%) think a missile defense system would counter possible missile and nuclear threats from other countries, such as Iran and North Korea. However, only 18% think it definitely would, indicating Americans aren’t as sure about this as they are about other issues. • Eighty-two percent of Americans think a US missile defense system should protect our troops and allies from the threat of ballistic missiles; only 12% disagree. Ninety percent of Republicans, 79% of Independents and 80% of Democrats agree. • Seventy percent of Americans support the current plan to deploy missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic; only 25% are opposed.While 30% strongly support the plan, intensity is clearly lower than for other questions. Regardless, 85% of Republicans, 66% of Independents and 62% of Democrats support the current plan.

8. Three in four Americans (75%) support programs to determine if missile defense systems located in space can defend against long and medium range missiles; only 18% are not supportive. Support is across the board, including 71% of Democrats, 73% of Independents and 86% of Republicans. • Given a list of options about missile defense in space, 60% of Americans think such systems should be located in space if it makes the US and our allies more secure, while 24% think only think missile systems including communication and sensory satellites should be deployed. Only 11% are opposed to any missile defense systems being located in space. • At least half of Democrats (53%), Independents (55%) and Republicans (72%) support missile defense system deployment in space. Only 15% of Democrats and 12% of Independents are opposed to any system deployment in space. • When presented with an array of options to deal with WMD proliferation, only 13% think a missile defense system would be the MOST effective option for the US to pursue. About half think diplomatic efforts (34%) or international treaties (18%) would be most effective, while 14% think pre-emptive military action to destroy the weapons would be most effective and 10% think buying them from countries which have them would be best. • One in five Republicans, 13% of Independents and 7% of Democrats think a missile defense system would be the most effective option.

9. Eight in ten Americans (81%) think it is extremely (34%) or very important (47%) that presidential candidates talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense. The vast majority of Americans across the board think this is an important issue for candidates to address, including 88% of Republicans, 75% of Independents and 82% of Democrats. • Mirroring current public surveys of candidate support, Americans have the most confidence in Hillary Clinton (20%) and Rudy Giuliani (16%) to defend the homeland. • When results among those affiliated with each party are examined, Giuliani is rated the top among Republicans (28%), with McCain (17%), Thompson (17%) and Romney (10%) trailing. Among Democrats, 41% have the most confidence in Clinton, with Obama (19%) and Edwards (10%) far behind. Results among Independents are very close to the overall results.

10. Detailed Findings Founded 1938

11. Most Important Priority Health care and homeland security are the issues Americans think are the most important priorities for the President and Congress to address this year. One in three (32%) name homeland security or national defense as the most important priorities. Homeland Security/ National Defense 32% QU1: I’d like to read you a list of priorities. Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE you feel is the MOST IMPORTANT priority for the President and Congress to address THIS year. Base = Total (n=1,023)

12. Most Important Priority While Republicans, men, older adults and those with a high school education or less are the most likely to name homeland security or defense as the most important priorities, at least one-quarter of adults in all groups think these are the issues the President and Congress should address this year. NOTE: Throughout the report, results statistically higher than average are highlighted QU1: I’d like to read you a list of priorities. Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE you feel is the MOST IMPORTANT priority for the President and Congress to address THIS year. Bases = Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Less than $25,000 (n=166), $25,000-$49,999 (n=256), $50,000-$74,999 (n=185), $75,000+ (n=238), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

13. Most Significant Threats Americans think terrorism is the most significant threat to the United States and our allies, with dependence on Middle Eastern oil, proliferation of nuclear weapons, unpredictable countries like North Korea and Iran’s development of nuclear weapons in the second tier of concerns. 47% 30% 26% 26% 22% 13% 14% QU2: The following have been cited by various commentators as threats to the United States and our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST significant threat? And which one is the NEXT MOST significant threat? Base = Total (n=1,023)

14. Most Significant Threats Terrorism is viewed as the most significant threat among most groups, although dependence on Middle Eastern oil is more important than average to Independents and Democrats, as well as the wealthiest and best-educated Americans. QU2: The following have been cited by various commentators as threats to the United States and our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST significant threat? And which one is the NEXT MOST significant threat? Bases = Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Less than $25,000 (n=166), $25,000-$49,999 (n=256), $50,000-$74,999 (n=185), $75,000+ (n=238), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

15. Good chance it could happen Very real and someone will do it Could happen but probably will not Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused No chance it could happen How Real Is the Threat? Well over half of Americans (60%) think the threat of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile or using a weapon of mass destruction is very real and someone will do it or think there is a good chance it could happen. Only 4% think there is no chance this could happen. 60% NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU5: How real do you think the threat is of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction against the United States? Do you think that . . . Base = Total (n=1,023)

16. How Real Is the Threat? While there is some variation in the percentages who think there is a real threat or a good chance of the US being attacked by a missile using a WMD, a majority of all major subgroups think there is at least a good chance it will happen. QU5: How real do you think the threat is of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction against the United States? Do you think that . . . Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

17. Should the US Have a Missile Defense System? The vast majority of Americans (83%) think the US should have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the US from an attack by missiles which may have WMD, including 69% who strongly agree. About eight in ten respondents in all demographic subgroups think the US should have such a system. Even three-quarters of those who do not think there is a good chance a foreign country or terrorist organization could launch a missile using a WMD support the US having a missile defense system. Strongly Should 83% Not so strongly Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Should Not 14% QU3: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the United States from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Will happen (n=618), Will not happen (n=390), Men (n=510), Women (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451)

18. Does the US Have a Missile Defense System? Three in four Americans (76%) believe that the US has a missile defense system, including 41% who are sure of it. A large majority of Americans across the all groups think the US has a system or are sure the US does. Think there is a system Sure there is a system Do not think there is a system Sure there is not a system Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused QU4: To the best of your knowledge, does the United States have a missile defense system? Would you say… Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Will happen (n=618), Will not happen (n=390), Men (n=510), Women (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451)

19. Should 2.2% of Military Budget Go To Missile Defense? Seventy-one percent of Americans, including solid majorities of Democrats, Republicans and Independents, as well as all demographic subgroups, think Congress should support the US military’s request that 2.2% of the defense budget go toward development and deployment of missile defense. Yes No Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused QU6: The U.S. military has requested 2.2% of next year’s defense budget to go toward development and deployment of missile defense. Do you think Congress should support this request? Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

20. Affordable Not affordable Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Is Missile Defense Affordable? By more than a 2-1 margin, Americans think a missile defense system is affordable; this includes a solid majority of Democrats and Independents, as well as an overwhelming majority of Republicans. QU7: Here are two statements people have made about the cost of a missile defense system. Please tell me which one comes CLOSER to your own point of view. Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

21. Missile Defense Should Be an Important Part of Homeland Security? Eight in ten Americans agree that a missile defense system should be an important part of US efforts for homeland security and public safety, including 64% who strongly agree with this. At least three in four adults in all groups agree, more than half strongly. Strongly Agree 81% Not so strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Strongly Disagree 17% QU8: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: A missile defense system should be an important part of the United States efforts for homeland security and public safety. Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

22. Continue or Stop Development? Three in four Americans think the US should continue to develop and build a missile defense system, including 62% who strongly believe this. Support is widespread across all groups. Strongly Continue to Build and Develop 75% Not so strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Strongly Stop Developing/Keep Limited 21% QU9: As you may know, the United States has recently begun to deploy a limited missile defense system. Now that you have had a chance to think a bit more about a missile defense system and its role in the future, do you think [ROTATE] (the United States should continue to develop and build a missile defense system to assure that the entire United States can be protected from all ranges of missiles) OR (the United States should stop developing and building the missile defense system and keep it as a limited system)? Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

23. Would Missile Defense System Counter Threats of Other Countries? Three in four Americans (73%) think a missile defense system would counter the possible missile and nuclear threat of other countries, such as Iran and North Korea. However, most aren’t sure about a missile defense system’s ability to do this. 21% Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Probably would not Definitely would not Definitely would 73% Probably would NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU10: In your opinion, would a missile defense system counter the possible missile and nuclear threat of other countries, such as Iran and North Korea? Would you say… Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

24. Should US Missile Defense System Protect Our Troops and Allies from Threat of Ballistic Missiles? Eighty-two percent of Americans, including at least three in four in all subgroups, think a US missile defense system should protect our troops and allies from the threat of ballistic missiles. Yes No Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU11: Do you think that a U.S. missile defense system should protect our troops and our allies from the threat of ballistic missiles? Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

25. Deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic By nearly a 3-1 margin, Americans support the planning to deploy missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend the US and Europe against threats from the Middle East, including more than 60% of Democrats and Independents. Support 70% Not so strongly Strongly Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Oppose 25% QU12: The United States is currently in the planning phase of deploying missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend both the United States and Europe against threats originating from Middle Eastern countries. Please tell me if this plan is something you… Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

26. Support for Programs to Determine If Systems in Space Can Work Three in four Americans support programs to determine if missile defense systems located in space can defend against long and medium range missile attacks. Large majorities across the board support this. Yes No Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused QU13: Long and medium range missiles that could attack the United States spend a majority of their flight time in space. Do you support programs to determine if missile defense systems located in space can defend against these missiles? Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

27. Using Space for Missile Defense Given a list of options about missile defense in space, 60% of Americans think such systems should be located in space if it makes the US and our allies more secure, while 24% think missile defense systems located in space should only include communication and sensor satellites. Only 11% don’t think missile defense systems should be located in space under any circumstances. NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU14: The use of space to help protect our nation has existed for over forty years. Which of the following points of view about the use of missile defense in space comes CLOSEST to your own? Bases = Total (n=1,023)

28. Using Space for Missile Defense More than half of those in all major subgoups think missile defense systems should be located in space if it makes us and our allies more secure. NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU14: The use of space to help protect our nation has existed for over forty years. Which of the following points of view about the use of missile defense in space comes CLOSEST to your own? Bases = Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

29. Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and WMD Presented with a range of options for dealing with the spread of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, about half of Americans think diplomatic efforts (34%) or international treaties (18%) would be MOST effective for the US to pursue in response to the problem; 14% think pre-emptive military action would work best, while 13% think a missile defense system would and 10% think purchasing the weapons from countries which have them would be the best route. NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU15: Which of the following options do you think would be MOST effective for the United States to pursue in response to the problem of the spreading of missiles and weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Total (n=1,023)

30. Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and WMD When given an array of options and asked which would be the MOST effective one for the US to pursue, diplomacy was chosen by 21% of Republicans, 34% of Independents and 45% of Democrats. QU15: Which of the following options do you think would be MOST effective for the United States to pursue in response to the problem of the spreading of missiles and weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

31. Importance of Presidential Candidates Addressing the Issue Eight in ten Americans think it is extremely or very important that presidential candidates talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense; 34% think it is extremely important. While this issues is particularly important to Republicans, large majorities across the board think it is important that presidential candidates address this issue. 81% Very Important Extremely Important Not Important at All Not Very Important Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused 18% QU16: How important do you think it is for a candidate for President to talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense? Would you say it is… Bases = Total (n=1,023), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), Northeast (n=187), North Central (n=235), South (n=365), West (n=236), High school or less (n=335), College incomplete (n=276), College graduate (n=400)

32. Which Candidate Will Best Defend Homeland? Mirroring public surveys of candidate support, Americans have the most confidence in Hillary Clinton (20%) and Rudy Giuliani (16%) to defend the homeland. NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU17: In which Presidential candidate do you have the MOST confidence to defend our homeland? Would you say … Base = Total (n=1,023)

33. Which Candidate Will Best Defend Homeland? Republicans have the most confidence in Rudy Giuliani to defend the homeland, while Democrats are most confident in Hillary Clinton. Independents are divided between Republican and Democratic candidates, with Clinton and Giuliani the top individual candidates. Republican Identifiers Democratic Identifiers Independents NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU17: In which Presidential candidate do you have the MOST confidence to defend our homeland? Would you say … Bases = Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307)

34. Appendix Founded 1938

35. RELIABILITY OF SURVEY PERCENTAGES Results of any sample are subject to sampling variation. The magnitude of the variation is measurable and is affected by the number of interviews and the level of the percentages expressing the results. The table below shows the possible sample variation that applies to percentage results reported herein. The chances are 95 in 100 that a survey result does not vary, plus or minus, by more than the indicated number of percentage points from the result that would be obtained if interviews had been conducted with all persons in the universe represented by the sample. Size of Sample on Approximate Sampling Tolerances Applicable Which Survey Results to Percentages At or Near These Levels Are Based 10% or 90%20% or 80%30% or 70%40% or 60%50% 1,000 interviews 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 500 interviews 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 250 interviews 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 100 interviews 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% Additional Sampling Tolerances for Samples of 1,000 Interviews 9% or 91%8% or 92%7% or 93%6% or 94%5% or 95% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% or 96%3% or 97%2% or 98%1% or 99% 1% 1% 1% .2%

36. SAMPLING TOLERANCES WHEN COMPARING TWO SAMPLES Tolerances are also involved in the comparison of results from independent parts of the sample. A difference, in other words, must be of at least a certain number of percentage points to be considered statistically significant – that is not due to random chance. The table below is a guide to the sampling tolerances in percentage points applicable to such comparisons, based on a 95% confidence level. Differences Required for Significance At Size of Samples or Near These Percentage Levels Compared 10% or 90%20% or 80%30% or 70%40% or 60%50% 1,000 and 1,000 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 1,000 and 500 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 1,000 and 250 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 1,000 and 100 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 500 and 500 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 500 and 250 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 500 and 100 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 250 and 250 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 250 and 100 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 100 and 100 8% 11% 13% 14% 14%