National Missile Defense Study

1. © Copyright 2008. Opinion Research Corporation. All rights reserved. Founded 1938 National Missile Defense Study Conducted for Prepared by July, 2008

2. Table of Contents

3. Background and Methodology Questions was included in the CARAVAN® omnibus survey from Opinion Research Corporation in order to determine America’s views about national security in general and missile defense in particular. Results from 2008 are based on telephone interviews conducted July 24-27, 2008 among a sample of 1,004 adults (502 men and 502 women). Results from 2007 are based on telephone interviews conducted July 19-22, 2007 among a sample of 1,023 adults (510 men and 513 women). Both studies were conducted among adults 18 years of age and older in the continental United States. Interviews were weighted by four variables: age, sex, geographic region, and race, to ensure reliable and accurate representation of the total adult population. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level is plus or minus three percentage points for the entire sample. Smaller sub-groups will have larger error margins.

4. Executive Summary Founded 1938

5. Executive Summary This survey conducted for the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance clearly shows that, despite the vastly increased importance of economic issues compared with last year, as well as the focus on the presidential campaign, Americans are as concerned about the threat posed to the United States by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction as they were last year. In addition, the substantial bipartisan support seen last year for missile defense has not changed. • Economic concerns have overwhelmed all others in the past 12 months, as four times as many Americans now think the economy is the top issue which needs to be addressed by the President and Congress. Homeland security and national defense are tied with health care as the next most-important issue area. • Given a list of possible threats to the US, terrorism and dependence on oil from the Middle East are rated as the most significant threats. The percentage naming terrorism has declined slightly in the past year, while the percentage concerned about dependence on Middle East oil has increased. Concern about countries like North Korea has dropped significantly. • Nearly six in ten Americans think that the threat to the US of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction is very real and someone will do it or it has a good chance of happening. Only 5% think there is no chance this could occur, while 36% think it could happen but probably won’t. These results are virtually unchanged from last year.

6. Fully 87% of Americans think the United States should have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the country from an attack by missiles that might contain WMD, including 75% who strongly agree. Last year 83% supported missile defense, including 69% who strongly supported it. • While Republicans are almost unanimous in thinking the US should have such a system, they are joined by 87% of Independents and 83% of Democrats; 73% of Independents and 68% of Democrats strongly think the US should have such a system. • Even among those whose concern with homeland security has decreased in the past 12 months, 83% still support having a missile defense system. • Eight in ten Americans (81%) think missile defense should be an important part of US efforts for homeland security and public safety, with 66% strongly agreeing with this. The results are little changed from 2007. • Republicans are all but unanimous in support (92%), although 82% of Independents and 75% of Democrats agree as well (including 63% of Independents and 58% of Democrats who strongly agree). • The vast majority of Americans think a US missile defense system should protect our troops abroad from the threat of a WMD missile attack (87%) and two in three think it should protect our allies. Three in four Americans strongly support a system to protect American troops abroad, while 47% are similarly supportive of a system to protect allies. • Ninety-four percent of Republicans, 81% of Independents and 82% of Democrats support a system to protect troops abroad, while 76% of Republicans, 60% of Independents and 63% of Democrats support a system to protect America’s allies.

7. Seventy-two percent of Americans support the current negotiations finalizing the deployment of missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic; only 24% are opposed.While 28% strongly support the plan, intensity is clearly lower than for other questions. Regardless, 90% of Republicans, 65% of Independents and 67% of Democrats are supportive. Results were very similar last year. • Given a list of options about missile defense in space, 47% of Americans think such systems should be located in space if it makes the US and our allies more secure, while 26% think only think missile systems including communication and sensory satellites should be deployed. Only 19% are opposed to any missile defense systems being located in space. • Only 13% of Republicans, 20% of Independents and 22% of Democrat are opposed to any system deployment in space. • When presented with a range of options for dealing with the spread of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the largest percentage of Americans think a missile defense system would be extremely or very effective (69%). Three other alternatives, diplomatic efforts, pre-emptivemilitary action to destroy stockpiles of those weapons, and international treaties and cooperation were at comparable lower levels. • Missile defense is regarded as the most effective response among both Republicans and Independents, and is tied with diplomacy and treaties and other international cooperation among Democrats.

8. Despite the increased focus on economic problems in the past year, equal numbers of Americans think concern about homeland security and national defense has increased in the past 12 months (27%) as think it has decreased (28%). However, far more Americans think the US has become more vulnerable rather than less vulnerable to potential security problems because of the focus on economic concerns (49% vs. 12%). • Eight in ten Americans (81%) think it is extremely (34%) or very important (47%) that presidential candidates talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense. • The vast majority of Americans across the board think this is an important issue for candidates to address, including 88% of Republicans, 75% of Independents and 82% of Democrats. • Mirroring other public surveys, Americans have more confidence in John McCain rather than Barack Obama to defend our homeland (43%-34%). • While 87% of Republicans name McCain, only 60% of Democrats think Obama is best. Independents side with McCain 41%-29%.

9. Detailed Findings Founded 1938

10. 63% 45% 10% 15% 36% 21% 22% 8% 20% 21% 8% 13% 18% 7% 12% 14% 5% 7% 6% 8% Most Important Priorities While the economy is by far the priority issue for the next President and Congress to address, a combination of homeland security and national defense are tied with health care as the next most-important issue area. Last year only 10% named the economy as the most important issue and 32% said homeland security or national defense. Most Important 2007 2008 15% most important 40% most/second most important *Most important QU1: I’d like to read you a list of priorities. Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE you feel is the MOST IMPORTANT priority for the NEXT President and Congress to address. And which ONE RESPONSE do you feel is the SECOND MOST IMPORTANT priority for the NEXT President and Congress to address? Base = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

11. Most Important Priority While the economy is the top priority across all groups, there are several differences on other issues. Health care, education and the environment are more important to Independents and Democrats, while homeland security and national defense are more important than average to Republicans. Homeland security and national defense are also more important to those 35 and older than to younger adults. NOTE: Throughout the report, results statistically higher than average are highlighted QU1: I’d like to read you a list of priorities. Please tell me which ONE RESPONSE you feel is the MOST IMPORTANT priority for the NEXT President and Congress to address. And which ONE RESPONSE do you feel is the SECOND MOST IMPORTANT priority for the NEXT President and Congress to address? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Male (n=502), Female (n=502), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526), Less than $25,000 (n=157), $25,000-$49,999 (n=238), $50,000-$74,999 (n=170), $75,000+ (n=205)

12. 2007 Results Most/ Second Most 30% 47% 39% 38% 17% 30% 27% 10%* 22%* 25% NA NA 19% 26% 10% 15% 5% 13% 9% 10%** 26%** 6% 6% Most Significant Threats Americans are equally likely to think terrorism and dependence on oil from the Middle East are the most significant threats to the United States and allies. Last year more thought terrorism rather than dependence on Middle East oil was one of the main threats. The percentage rating countries like Korea as one of the main threats has dropped significantly. *2007 wording was ‘Iran’s development of nuclear weapons’ **2007 wording was ‘unpredictable countries like North Korea’ QU2: The following have been cited by various commentators as threats to the United States and our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST significant threat? And which one is the NEXT MOST significant threat? Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

13. Most Significant Threats Terrorism and Iran are more important than average to Republicans, while better-educated and more-affluent Americans are more likely than average to think dependence on oil from the Middle East is one of the top two threats to the United States and our allies. QU2: The following have been cited by various commentators as threats to the United States and our allies. Which one do you believe is the MOST significant threat? And which one is the NEXT MOST significant threat? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526), Less than $25,000 (n=157), $25,000-$49,999 (n=238), $50,000-$74,999 (n=170), $75,000+ (n=205), High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

14. Good chance it could happen Good chance it could happen 60% 58% Very real and someone will do it Very real and someone will do it Could happen but probably will not Could happen but probably will not Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused No chance it could happen No chance it could happen How Real Is the Threat? Well over half of Americans (58%) think the threat of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile or using a weapon of mass destruction is very real and someone will do it or think there is a good chance it could happen (versus 60% in 2007). Only 5% think there is no chance this could happen. The results show only a slight change from 2007. 2007 Results 2008 Results NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU6: How real do you think the threat is of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction against the United States? Do you think that . . . Base = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

15. How Real Is the Threat? While there is some variation in the percentages who think there is a real threat or a good chance of the US being attacked by a missile using a WMD, at least half of all major subgroups think there is at least a good chance it will happen. Even 39% of those opposed to the missile defense program think there is at least a good chance. QU6: How real do you think the threat is of a foreign country or terrorist organization launching a missile using a weapon of mass destruction against the United States? Do you think that . . . Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Male (n=502), Female (n=502), Northeast (n=188), North Central (n=225), South (n=366), West (n=225), High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324), Support US missile defense program (n=706), Oppose US missile defense program (n=241)

16. 2008 Results 2007 Results Strongly Strongly Should 83% Should 87% Not so strongly Not so strongly Strongly Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Not so strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Should Not 14% Should Not 9% Should the US Have a Missile Defense System? The vast majority of Americans (87%) think the US should have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the US from an attack by missiles which may have WMD, including 75% who strongly agree. Support has increased from 2007. QU3: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the United States from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

17. Should the US Have a Missile Defense System? At least three in four respondents in all demographic subgroups think the US should have such a system. Even three-quarters of those who do not think there is a good chance a foreign country or terrorist organization could launch a missile using a WMD support the US having a missile defense system. Among those whose concern with homeland security has decreased in the past 12 months, 83% still support having a missile defense system. QU3: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect the United States from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Threat will happen (n=569), Threat will not happen (n=419), Concern with homeland security increased past 12 months (n=277), Concern decreased (n=277), High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

18. Strongly Agree 81% Not so strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Strongly Disagree 17% Missile Defense Should Be an Important Part of Homeland Security? Eight in ten Americans agree that a missile defense system should be an important part of US efforts for homeland security and public safety, including 66% who strongly agree with this. Support is comparable to 2007. 2008 Results 2007 Results Strongly Agree 81% Not so strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Strongly Not so strongly Disagree 16% QU7: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: A missile defense system should be an important part of the United States efforts for homeland security and public safety. Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2008, 1,008 in 2008)

19. Missile Defense Should Be an Important Part of Homeland Security? At least three in four adults in all groups agree, more than half strongly. QU7: Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: A missile defense system should be an important part of the United States efforts for homeland security and public safety. Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Male (n=502), Female (n=502), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526), Northeast (n=188), North Central (n=225), South (n=366), West (n=225),High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

20. American Military Abroad Strongly Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Support 65% Support 84% Not so strongly Not so strongly Not so strongly Strongly Not so strongly Oppose 9% Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Oppose 30% Should US Missile Defense System Protect Our Troops and Allies from Threat of Ballistic Missiles? The vast majority of Americans think a US missile defense system should protect our troops abroad from the threat of a WMD missile attack. They are less supportive of a missile system to protect America’s allies, although by more than a 2-1 margin, Americans support that as well. America’s Allies QU4: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect American military forces ABROAD from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? QU5: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect America’s ALLIES, such as the European nations, from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

21. Should US Missile Defense System Protect Our Troops and Allies from Threat of Ballistic Missiles? The vast majority of Americans across all demographic groups support a missile defense system to protect American troops abroad. More than half also support one to protect allies, although at a lower level. QU4: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect American military forces ABROAD from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? QU5: Do you think the United States should or should not have a missile defense system with the ability to protect America’s ALLIES, such as the European nations, from an attack by missiles that might contain weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Northeast (n=188), North Central (n=225), South (n=366), West (n=225),High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

22. Support 72% Support 70% Not so strongly Not so strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly Strongly Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Not so strongly Not so strongly Oppose 25% Oppose 24% Deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic By nearly a 3-1 margin, Americans support the process of finalizing the deployment of missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic to defend the US and Europe against threats from the Middle East. Results are virtually unchanged from 2007, when the question described the process as being in the planning stage. 2008 Results 2007 Results* *In 2007 the question wording said ‘the United States is currently in the planning phase of deploying missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic…’ QU8: The United States is currently in the process of finalizing a missile defense program with Poland and the Czech Republic to defend both the United States and Europe against threats originating from Middle Eastern countries. Please tell me if this program is something you… Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

23. Deployment in Poland and the Czech Republic At least two in three Americans in all major demographic subgroups support finalizing a missile defense program with Poland and the Czech Republic. QU8: The United States is currently in the process of finalizing a missile defense program with Poland and the Czech Republic to defend both the United States and Europe against threats originating from Middle Eastern countries. Please tell me if this program is something you… Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Male (n=502), Female (n=502), Northeast (n=188), North Central (n=225), South (n=366), West (n=225),High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

24. Using Space for Missile Defense Given a list of options about missile defense in space, nearly half of Americans (47%) think such systems should be located in space if it makes the US and our allies more secure, while 26% think missile defense systems located in space should only include communication and sensor satellites. While still only 19%, more people this year don’t think missile defense systems should be located in space under any circumstances than thought this a year ago. *In 2007 the question was preceded by this sentence – ‘The use of space to help protect our nation has existed for over forty years.’ NOTE: Percentages may not add up due to rounding QU11: Which of the following points of view about the use of missile defense in space comes CLOSEST to your own? Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007 1,004 in 2008)

25. Using Space for Missile Defense No more than one in four respondents in any major demographic subgroup don’t think missile defense systems should be located in space under any circumstances. QU11: Which of the following points of view about the use of missile defense in space comes CLOSEST to your own? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526),Northeast (n=188), North Central (n=225), South (n=366), West (n=225),Less than $25,000 (n=157), $25,000-$49,999 (n=238), $50,000-$74,999 (n=170), $75,000+ (n=205)

26. 13% 18% 69% 16% 34% 54% 17% 14% 53% 18% 10% 53% 7% 10% 25% Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and WMD Presented with a range of options for dealing with the spread of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the largest percentage of Americans think a missile defense system would be extremely or very effective. Last year respondents were asked which option they thought would be most effective. Extremely Effective 2007* 2008 *Which of the following options do you think would be MOST effective for the United States to pursue in response to the problem of the spreading of missiles and weapons of mass destruction? QU9: How effective would each of the following be for the United States to pursue in response to the possible spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

27. Options for Dealing with Spread of Missiles and WMD Missile defense is regarded as the most effective response among both Republicans and Independents, and is tied with diplomacy and treaties and other international cooperation among Democrats. Missile defense is also top by all age groups. QU9: How effective would each of the following be for the United States to pursue in response to the possible spread of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526),High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

28. Less Vulnerable Decreased More Vulnerable Increased Neither More Nor Less Vulnerable Remained the Same Don’t know/ Unsure Don’t know/ Unsure Focus on Homeland Security and National Defense Despite the increased focus on economic problems in the past year, equal numbers of Americans think concern about homeland security and national defense has increased in the past 12 months as think it has decreased. However, far more Americans think the US has become more vulnerable rather than less vulnerable to potential security problems because of the focus on economic concerns. Concern about Homeland Security/National Defense Vulnerability Due to Focus on Economic Concerns QU10: Do you think that public concern about homeland security and national defense has increased, decreased or remained the same over the PAST 12 MONTHS? QU12: Do you think that our country has become more vulnerable, less vulnerable or neither more nor less vulnerable to potential security problems because many people are focused on economic concerns? Base = Total (n=1,004)

29. Focus on Homeland Security and National Defense Republicans, Independents and Democrats all think the US is more vulnerable to potential security problems because of the focus on the economy; African-Americans and those with a high school education or less are also more likely than average to think the US is more vulnerable. QU10: Do you think that public concern about homeland security and national defense has increased, decreased or remained the same over the PAST 12 MONTHS? QU12: Do you think that our country has become more vulnerable, less vulnerable or neither more nor less vulnerable to potential security problems because many people are focused on economic concerns? Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526), White (n=766), African-American (n=81), Hispanic (n=55), High school or less (n=389), College incomplete (n=248), College graduate (n=324)

30. 78% 81% Very Important Very Important Extremely Important Extremely Important Not Important at All Not Important at All Not Very Important Not Very Important Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused Don’t know/ Unsure/ Refused 18% 21% Importance of Presidential Candidates Addressing the Issue Nearly eight in ten Americans think it is extremely or very important that presidential candidates talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense; 27% think it is extremely important. The results have changed little over the past year. 2008 Results 2007 Results QU13: How important do you think it is for a candidate for President to talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense? Would you say it is… Bases = Total (n=1,023 in 2007, 1,004 in 2008)

31. Importance of Presidential Candidates Addressing the Issue While this issue is particularly important to Republicans, large majorities across the board think it is important that presidential candidates address this issue. QU13: How important do you think it is for a candidate for President to talk about their plans to defend our homeland, including the development of missile defense? Would you say it is… Bases = Republicans (n=276), Independents (n=327), Democrats (n=362), Male (n=502), Female (n=502), 18-34 (n=153), 35-54 (n=316), 55+ (n=526)

32. Which Candidate Will Best Defend Homeland? By a 43%-34% margin, Americans have the most confidence in John McCain to defend our homeland. While 87% of Republicans name McCain, only 60% of Democrats think Obama is best. Independents side with McCain 41% versus 29% for Obama. None/Don’t Know/ Unsure/ Refused McCain Other Obama QU14: In which Presidential candidate do you have the MOST confidence to defend our homeland? Would you say … Bases = Total (n=1,004), Republicans (n=311), Independents (n=354), Democrats (n=307), Male (n=510), Female (n=513), 18-34 (n=142), 35-54 (n=422), 55+ (n=451), White (n=766), African-American (n=81), Hispanic (n=55), Less than $25,000 (n=157), $25,000-$49,999 (n=238), $50,000-$74,999 (n=170), $75,000+ (n=205)

33. Appendix Founded 1938

34. RELIABILITY OF SURVEY PERCENTAGES Results of any sample are subject to sampling variation. The magnitude of the variation is measurable and is affected by the number of interviews and the level of the percentages expressing the results. The table below shows the possible sample variation that applies to percentage results reported herein. The chances are 95 in 100 that a survey result does not vary, plus or minus, by more than the indicated number of percentage points from the result that would be obtained if interviews had been conducted with all persons in the universe represented by the sample. Size of Sample on Approximate Sampling Tolerances Applicable Which Survey Results to Percentages At or Near These Levels Are Based 10% or 90%20% or 80%30% or 70%40% or 60%50% 1,000 interviews 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 500 interviews 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 250 interviews 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 100 interviews 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% Additional Sampling Tolerances for Samples of 1,000 Interviews 9% or 91%8% or 92%7% or 93%6% or 94%5% or 95% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% or 96%3% or 97%2% or 98%1% or 99% 1% 1% 1% .2%

35. SAMPLING TOLERANCES WHEN COMPARING TWO SAMPLES Tolerances are also involved in the comparison of results from independent parts of the sample. A difference, in other words, must be of at least a certain number of percentage points to be considered statistically significant – that is not due to random chance. The table below is a guide to the sampling tolerances in percentage points applicable to such comparisons, based on a 95% confidence level. Differences Required for Significance At Size of Samples or Near These Percentage Levels Compared 10% or 90%20% or 80%30% or 70%40% or 60%50% 1,000 and 1,000 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 1,000 and 500 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 1,000 and 250 4% 6% 6% 7% 7% 1,000 and 100 6% 8% 9% 10% 10% 500 and 500 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 500 and 250 5% 6% 7% 7% 8% 500 and 100 6% 9% 10% 11% 11% 250 and 250 5% 7% 8% 9% 9% 250 and 100 7% 9% 11% 11% 12% 100 and 100 8% 11% 13% 14% 14%