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We Are Listening: An Update on SPC Products

We Are Listening: An Update on SPC Products. Daniel McCarthy Warning Coordination Meteorologist spc.wcm@noaa.gov. Watch By County. Increased Probabilities for Day 1 Outlook. Day 1 Outlook. Categorical. Tornado Probabilities. Day 2 Outlook. Categorical. All Severe Probabilities.

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We Are Listening: An Update on SPC Products

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  1. We Are Listening: An Update on SPC Products Daniel McCarthy Warning Coordination Meteorologist spc.wcm@noaa.gov Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  2. Watch By County Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  3. Increased Probabilities for Day 1 Outlook Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  4. Day 1 Outlook Categorical Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting Tornado Probabilities

  5. Day 2 Outlook Categorical All Severe Probabilities Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting First time SPC issued HIGH risk for a Day 2 Outlook

  6. Enhanced Thunderstorm Forecast valid until 0300 UTC valid 0300 to 1200 UTC Available on web site. Once implemented, do we need GEN TSTM line on Outlooks? Are the time increments useful? Should they be different? www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlooks Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  7. Public Weather Outlook • Issued with a Moderate/High Risk of Severe Weather • Last year issued for “all” moderate risk outlooks • This year issued for only moderate risk outlooks • Damaging Wind probabilities are 45% or 60% • Tornado probabilities greater than 15% • And includes 10% significant area • As requested by our Users!! (Hail probabilities will not trigger the PWO) Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  8. Watch Probabilities WWUS40 KWNS 112221 WWP3 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2006 WT 0343 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 30% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 10% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10% PROBABILITY OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 20% PROBABILITY OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 30% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 0.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 50 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 350 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24030 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU3. $$ Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  9. Day 4-8 Outlook Feedback shows this to be favorable and popular product! Implement as official product 2nd Quarter 2007 Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  10. Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Implement as official product 3rd Quarter of 2007 www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/overview.html Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  11. Enhanced Fujita Scale Wind Speeds in mph, 3-Second Gust Will be implemented Feb. 1, 2007 www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

  12. Questions and Comments? National Weather Center www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/feedback.html spc.wcm@noaa.gov Spring 2006 NWS Partner's Meeting

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