GRASSROOTS REVIVAL: IS THE CONSERVATIVE CONSTITUENCY CAMPAIGN MACHINE WORKING AGAIN?

1. GRASSROOTS REVIVAL: IS THE CONSERVATIVE CONSTITUENCY CAMPAIGN MACHINE WORKING AGAIN? RON JOHNSTON and CHARLES PATTIE

2. POST-MODERN CAMPAIGNING ERA(Fisher and Denver) • Greater focus on marginal constituencies • Greater use of ‘modern’ techniques • More likely to involve a ‘long campaign’ • Greater central ‘direction’ BUT Still need local activists (party members) and money raised locally – though latter increasingly aided by central grants etc.

3. SO ARE THEY GETTING READY? September 26, 2008, Financial Times ‘Activists primed for victory, says Pickles’

4. HEADQUARTERS GRANTS TO ‘TARGET’ SEATS 2005 – Bearwood Corporate Services (i.e. Lord Ashcroft) made 88 substantial grants (totalling £667,165) to 57 separate constituency parties; had an electoral impact Post-Howard: Ashcroft part of central party organisation – giving money to party centrally (£275,000 in 2007) and leading programme of grants to target seats

5. CENTRAL GRANTS 2007 58 separate grants, totalling £675,679 Distribution: <£5,000 22 (1 multi-constituency) £5,000-9,999 6 £10,000-19,999 21 (2 multi-constituency) £20,000< 9 (2 multi-constituency) By ‘estimated’ 2005 result 13 that would have been won by Conservatives, 27 Labour and 13 LibDem

6. INCOME 2006-2007 2006 2007 2007 Non-Target Target Min 3,350 17,040 22,965 10th 22,991 30,144 28,247 25th 30,444 39,263 38,829 Med 48,226 54,756 53,650 75th 75,142 84,935 75,134 90th 111,268 122,130 104,085 Max 433,353 480,456 124,784 N 306 270 61

7. INCOME CHANGE (2007-2006) All Non-Target Target Min -103,313 -103,313 -5,952 10th -6,658 -9,455 1,246 25th -363 -2,081 9,428 Med 6,063 4,069 19,119 75th 17,818 13,367 33,228 90th 36,793 30,123 46,965 Max 131,015 131,015 56,871 N 306 250 56

8. WHERE DO THEY RAISE INCOME?SEATS ‘WON’ IN 2005 Margin S Data 2007 (£) Change (£) 0-5 42 42 72,603 9,727 (39) 5-10 34 34 61,507 3,390 (33) 10-15 62 62 80,503 3,583 (56) 15-20 42 42 79,606 3,796 (41) 20+ 10 10 92,059 15,049 (10) S- number of seats; Data – seats with income data 2007; Change – for seats with data 2006 and 2007 (number in brackets)

9. AND IN SEATS THAT THEY ‘LOST’? Income Margin Seats Data 2007 (£) 0-5 74 54 58,270 5-10 86 38 45,499 10-15 85 17 54,728 15-20 73 7 40,221 20+ 103 3 43,971

10. 2007 MEAN INCOME IN TARGET SEATS(SINGLE CONSTITUENCY TARGETS ONLY) Margin 0-5 5-10 10-15 Seats ‘won’ in 2005 N 11 0 1 Income (£) 77,810 92,716 Seats ‘lost’ in 2005 N 23 13 4 Income (£) 57,997 38,231 48,297

11. AND INCOME CHANGE (2007-2006) Non-Target Target Margin D ΔI D ΔI 0-5 29 17,130 31 25,400 5-10 19 9,692 12 11,666 10-15 13 4,760 4 7,627 15-20 6 11,139 1 5,771 20+ 3 10,979 0 D – number of seats with 2006 and 2007 data; ΔI – mean income change (2007-2006)

12. HOW DID THEY RAISE IT? REPORTED DONATIONS TO CONSTITUENCY PARTIES N NC Total (£) 2002 348 142 1,002,905 2003 187 100 558,858 2004 344 156 1,403,138 2005 876 298 3,481,753 2006 321 126 1,059,552 2007 442 180 1,914,064 2008* 266 144 1.085,669 N – number of donations; NC – number of Constituencies; * (to end June)

13. AND WHAT WAS IT SPENT ON? £ on Printing + Stationery + Postage + Campaigning in Target Seats Margin 2006 2007 Δ 0-5 13,587 23,898 11,554 5-10 4,366 17,607 10,429 10-15 8,903 13,460 4,556 NB – Number of seats not the same in 2006 and 2007

14. LONG-TERM TRENDS IN EXPENDITURE (£25,000+) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Min 25,129 10,584 15,755 2,391 10,395 10th 29,485 25,651 33,469 20,590 28,847 25th 34,988 34,543 42,576 30,160 38,159 Med 50,365 51,251 62,790 48,927 56,291 75th 69,971 72,560 91,050 75,290 82,670 90th 94,864 97,154 117,016 106,349 116,345 Max 343,059 298,432 342,192 420,450 392,333 N 259 250 254 281 305

15. MEMBERSHIP 2006 2007 2006-2007 Δ Min 42 47 47 -789 10th 298 245 275 -211 25th 405 340 363 -109 Med 604 505 529 -52 75th 900 805 803 -4 90th 1201 1043 1042 34 Max 2403 2255 2255 187 N 237 294 237 237