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Kate Ralston Darin Wohlgemuth Daryl Herzmann Corey Hagruth Iowa State University November 12, 2013 AACRAO - SEM Chicago, IL. Cloudy with a Chance of Enrollment: The effects of weather on student enrollment behavior. What is Weather?.
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Kate Ralston Darin Wohlgemuth Daryl Herzmann Corey Hagruth Iowa State University November 12, 2013 AACRAO - SEM Chicago, IL Cloudy with a Chance of Enrollment: The effects of weather on student enrollment behavior
What is Weather? The state of the atmosphere at a given moment in time at a given location.
What is Weather? Measures include the amount of • sunshine • clouds • rainfall • humidity • wind • temperature fluctuating on a daily basis.
Weather vs. Climate Not the same as climate may include a combination of the same measures considers them in 30-year increments Climate Normals
Why do we care? Weather affects an array of human behaviors and decisions, often – without us knowing.
Effects of weather on behavior • Hirshleifer, D. and Shumway, T. (2003): Sunny days higher stock returns • Rind, B. (1996): Cloudy skies less tips to servers • Anderson, C. (1989): Hotter weather higher levels of aggression
Weather in Higher Ed? • Baxter (2009): Rainy days Less med school applicants accepted • Simonsohn (2007, 2009): Cloudy skies Academic rigor of applicants matters more than extra-curricular achievements to admissions and applicants
Then, the question is… Does weather during campus visit affect a student’s probability of enrollment?
Other questions to consider? Does any particular weather element matter more? • What about element combinations? • Seasons? • Gender? • Choice of major college?
Getting Data Enrollment: individual level, students Meteorology: - daily 8-hour average, town - climatology, regional Joint File: Visits, enrollment, high-school status, daily weather variables, climate averages
Preparing the data Office of Admissions: Daily visit data, 5 years High school status – Senior/Junior Application and admission status Enrollment information from census Other relevant information
Preparing the data Iowa State Meteorology Department: Daily readings from Ames Hourly readings, averaged across regular business hours Daily climate normal for IA Daily climate normal, regional
Preparing the data Identifying influential weather variables: • Temperature: Above/Below average • Wind-chill: Yes/No • Heat Index: Yes/No • Snow: Yes/No • Clouds: Yes/No • Rain: Yes/No What else matters?
Perception of Weather Combination of objective climate normals and subjective comfort.
What is Good Weather? How do you define and measure good weather?
Creating a Weather Index • Can’t have wind chill and heat index • Can’t have snow and rain Index range: 0 to 4, the higher the worse Bad weather indicator: Weather index >2
Recognizing seasons Cold season: November – March Warm season: June-August Demi-season: April/May, September/October Create seasons variables: Dummy codes: cold, warm, demi = 0/1 Effect codes: cold, warm, demi = -1/1 Effect switch: cold -1, warm 1, demi 0
Understanding climate normals • Understanding the norm helps adjusting expectations benchmarking weather is important for informing initial campus visit strategies
Iowa weather is… • Best in early spring and fall • Sunniest: September-October • Best temperature: March/April • Extreme heat: ~ 2 months a year • Extreme cold: ~ 2 months a year • Rain: ~30% of the year
So…? Goal – satisfactory experience: Planning more visits during more favorable weather times Allocating necessary staff time and resources Creating plan B for adverse conditions
Does weather truly matter? Going beyond frequencies: correlation t-test/chi-square multiple regression
Correlations Dichotomous variables can be correlated using Pearson’s phi or mean square contingency coefficient
T-Test vs. χ2 T-Test χ2
More? Sensitive to elements, tend to enroll less during “element” days
Implications • Elements do make a difference • Not all differences are intuitive • Not all elements impact enrollment • Care matters (windchill findings) • So does timing (visiting as senior vs. junior)
Comments & Questions Contact Information kroha@iastate.edu darinw@iastate.edu Thank you for attending this morning!