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Regional Migration Trends and Models Revisited - 1981 to 2001

Regional Migration Trends and Models Revisited - 1981 to 2001. James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA). On the Frontiers : New Public Research on Population, Migration and Community Dynamics 31 March 2005. Project Outline.

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Regional Migration Trends and Models Revisited - 1981 to 2001

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  1. Regional Migration Trends and Models Revisited - 1981 to 2001 James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) On the Frontiers : New Public Research on Population, Migration and Community Dynamics 31 March 2005

  2. Project Outline • Extends the 1986 to 1996 Regional Migration estimates • Supported by a small research grant under the FORST New Demographic Directions Programme • Extends the estimates to 1981 – 2001 • Uses 1981 to 2001 births and deaths statistics to estimate net migration and international out migration by region • Explores the fit of some simple regional migration forecasting strategies

  3. Estimation of Regional Migration • Grouped Territorial Local Authorities to best fit to regions (TARegions) • Births and deaths series applied to estimate intercensal births and deaths • Pre-1990 vitals data involved regrouping urban area estimates) • National net migration results compared with an external control

  4. Comparing Intercensal Net International Migration Transitions

  5. Adjustments for Comparability with Net Permanent Long Term International Migration Estimates

  6. Difference from Net Permanent Long Term International Migration Estimates

  7. Conclusions on the Checks • 1986 to 2001 results very comparable with Net Permanent Long Term Migration Estimates • Differences of net international migration flow estimates for regions less than 10% of outward flows • Big improvement on previous estimates • Can improve estimates by adjusting for net census undercount 1996-2001 and for unspecified origin region • Suggests that would be useful to triangulate analysis of census derived migration with net permanent long term migration flows data

  8. Intercensal International Migration Transitions

  9. Aggregate Migration Indicators

  10. Features of International Migration Transitions 1981 - 2001 • Increasing Inward International Migration Flows over Time • Big variation up and down in international outward migration flows • Need to separate out in and out flows of New Migrants from return flows of New Zealanders • Need to extend the migration estimates to NZ Born / not NZ Born • Internal “inter-regional” migration flows slowly increasing

  11. Regions in top half of Net Migration Rates 1996-2001

  12. Regions in bottom half of Net Migration Rates 1996-2001

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