Evolution of Warfare and Security in the Modern World Lecture 1: Introduction and Basic Concepts

1. Evolution of Warfare and Security in the Modern WorldLecture 1: Introduction and Basic Concepts Dr. James Corum- Dean- Baltic Defence College Dr. Eric Sibul, Asst. Prof. Baltic Defence College

2. Lecture outline • Course outline • Introduction and the basic concepts • Summary

3. Course outline I. Learning outcomes: The course is designed for specialists in the field of cyber defence/security. It’s purpose is to provide the general understanding of the nature of warfare and outline the role and scope of information warfare (IW – cyber warfare is a part of it) used bystates in contemporary world. In particular, the learning outcomes constitute: 1. Knowing the evolution of warfare and its basic concepts 2. Comprehending connections between the warfare, technology and state organisation 3. Understanding the role of cyberspace in modern warfare and knowing various views on utilising it for offensive and defensive purposes

4. Course outline II. Topics to be discussed • The evolution of traditional warfare from antiquity to present day • The evolution of untraditional/unconventional warfare • Infromation warfare and different views on it NB! This course is not so much about the history of war, but about the history of warfare,i.e. about the ways people have fought wars, thought about wars, and keep doing it in present time

5. Course outline III. Individual assignments • Two essays: each 1,500 words (exceeding the limit is not recommended) • Essay no.1: Analyse the major changes in warfare from antiquity to modern days. What are the most significant changes? What has remained unchanged? Deadline: 26.03.2012 • Essay no 2: Analyse the meaning of victory in conflict in the information age. What has changed? What has remained unchanged? How information society and information warfare influences achieving the victory?Deadline: 14.05.2012 • Submission: in electronic form to an email address: • james.corum@bdcol.ee

6. Course outline IV. Marking of essays and completion of course Marking of essays: • knowledge of literature and references to authoritative texts • independent thought • presentation of the most important aspects of the topic • timely submission (delaying submission will reduce the mark by one grade a day – if the essay is, for example, submitted two days late and it is marked “E” on the basis of its contents, then it will receive a total mark “fail” because of the delay and it must be submitted again) • References to Wikipedia are not welcome and their presence will be considered as lowering the quality of the essay Written fail/pass examination: 90 minutes for answering several questions in written form

7. Introduction: the world To begin with...what kind of world do we live in? • Tokyo 1995, 9/11 • February 2003 – three hackers disrupted the US logistics planning for the US operations in the Persian Gulf, etc. • Internet is used by 1.7-2 billion people • 50% of world population lives in the cities • Globalisation is on the rise – over 550 million people move across borders annually, over 6 million people fly daily • India+China = 35% and the US+EU = 60% of the world economy (there are 192 United Nations’ member states!); of the 100 largest ‘economies’ in the world only 47 are states, the rest are multinational corporations • There are 45,000 non-governmental organisations in the world and many of them have become very influential in international politics • Every 2-3 years mankind produces more written/printed information than in previous 5,000 years...

8. Introduction:conflicts • The world is rapidly becoming a ‘global village’ connected at various levels by new technologies, integrating economy and societies • Does it mean that we solve our conflicts differently? Have we become more peaceful, do we fight differently? • Are we witnessing changing conflicts in a changing world? Has information warfare gained a special role in these conflicts or has it become a way of fighting a conflict in its own right?

9. Introduction:conflicts Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

10. Introduction:conflicts Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

11. Introduction:terrorism Source: Human Security Brief 2007, Vancouver: Simon Fraser University

12. Introduction:conflicts and terrorism • Although the world has become more integrated than ever, the number of conflicts waged in the world has increased from 1946-2006 • Considerable number of states in the world have become unstable and suffer from internal conflicts – nature of conflicts has changed and they have migrated intostates. States fight each other rarely nowadays • Conflicts have become less violent. The deadliest conflicts have been wars between states • The number of incidents of terrorism has generally not increased dramatically – with the exception of conflict areas

13. Introduction:changes in conflicts Continuing the previous thread of thought, we can say that... • ...indeed, states have become more peaceful with regard to each other and they avoid, as a rule, (at least) open warfare • ...nations and nationalities still solve their internal problems through violence • ...terrorism is used frequently in these internal conflicts • ...the general insight into conflict statistics tells us little about the IW. However, we know IW happens. We know something goes on in the cyberspace, but is it a systematic development, is it a natural evolution of warfare – evolution of means for solving conflicts (be it through the offensive or defensive actions)?

14. Introduction:why knowing the history of warfare is necessary In order to get a definitive answer and also establish the purpose, different types and applications (and limits of application) of IW, we need to investigate the historical evolution of warfare in general. We need to know: • Why and how people have used violence? • What could be achieved through the violence? • How have nations organised themselves and their tools for fighting through times and how is it done in the information age? These are the questions that will be investigated and answered during this course.

15. Introduction:basic terms War is... ...continuation of politics by other means. War is an act of violence that theoretically could have no limits. Traditonal war consists of strategic, operational and tactical levels State is... ...an entity comprising territory, citizens and constitutional order/legislation Constitutional order is... ...a set of principles reflected in laws and describing how state is constituted, i.e. how it works, how it is governed and how much control it exerts over its population and various sectors of society and economy. Politics/policy is... ...a process of decision-making/purposeful flow of action

16. Introduction:basic terms Strategy is... ...an idea or set of ideas for employing the instruments of power in a synchronized and integrated fashion to achieve various objectives Operational art is... ...an application of creative imagination by commanders and staffs to design strategies, campaigns, and major operations and organize and employ military forces Operation is... ... alarge-scale military action consisting of tactical engagements in support of strategic goals Tactics is... ...an employment and ordered arrangement of forces in relation to each other

17. Introduction:basic terms Information warfare/operations(IW/IO) is... ...the integrated employment of (1) the core capabilities of electronic warfare, (2) computer network operations, (3) psychological operations, (4) military deception, and (5) operations security, in concert with specified supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt or usurp adversarial human and automated decision-making while protecting our own

18. Introduction:changes in warfare and in constitutional order Source: Bobbitt, P. (2002) “The Shield of Achilles”, London: Penguin Books, pp.346-347

19. Introduction:changes in warfare and in constitutional order • 1991...the end of a nation-state? • ...arrival of a market state? • ...what does it mean for warfare? • Enemy • Goals • Means • Conflicts • Strategy of countering the enemy

20. Introduction:Evolution of war--generations of wars • 1800: Napoleonic wars and the arrival of mass armies on the battlefield • 1870-1918: Wars of industrial societies characterised by mass armies and massive fire power • 1918-1945: Mechanised manoeuvre warfare • 1945-1990: Insurgencies/guerilla wars. 1990: War has ceased to be a predominantly physical battle supported by IW and has transformed into a strategic communication campaign where physical battle is a tool for sending messages and breaking the will of enemy’s government. • 2001: War has become an activity of networks, supranational groups in pursuit of their objectives. It is increasingly becoming unlimited. Source: Hammes, T.X. “Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth Emerges”, Military Review, May-June 2007

21. Summary • We inhabit a globalising world characterised by developing information society where every individual has much more access to information, ability to process information and produce information • This world of ours is characterised by the fact that there are more conflicts taking place than half a century ago • States fight states rarely – majority of conflicts are intrastate conflicts characterised by a high incidence of terrorism • Warfare and constitutional order of states have through the centuries evolved in the direction of maximum mobilisation of society and its resources for war. Since the Great French Revolution, war has become a truly national undertaking

22. Summary • The evolution of information society seems to be transforming war into a communication campaign of violent and destructive messages • Information society (i.e. growing access to technologies that could be used for destructive purposes as well as growing vulnerability of society) enables smaller groups to challenge states • Does it all mean fading of nation-state and emerging of a new constitutional order (market state – P.Bobbitt) remains to be seen and will be discussed during the course

23. Some Course texts; • Richard A. Preston , Sydney F. Wise and Herman O. Werner, Men in Arms: a History of Warfare and its Interrelationships with Western Society (New York: Frederick Praeger, 1956). • Emily O. Goldman, ed., Information and Revolutions in Military Affairs (London: Routledge, 2005).

24. Lecture One – Introduction • Preston, Wise, & Werner. Men in Arms.: 1- 9 • Lecture Two – Classical Warfare in the Western World • Preston, Wise, & Werner. Men in Arms.: 17 – 49 • Lecture Three – Classical Warfare in Asia the Eastern Way of War • Lecture Four – Feudal Warfare to the Beginnings Modern Warfare • Lecture Five – Limited Warfare in the 18th Century to Nations in Arms and Napoleon

25. Lecture Six – The 19th Nineteenth Century Limited War and the rise of the Information Age • Lecture Seven – Total War • Lecture Eight—World War II on the Eastern Front and in the Baltic Area • Lecture Nine – Modern Irregular Warfare • Lecture Ten: The Cold War • Lecture Eleven– Military Thought in the late 20th Century and Beyond

26. Lecture Twelve – The Russian and Chinese Approaches to information warfare • Lecture Thirteen – The US Approach to Information Warfare • Lecture Fourteen –Summary and Review of current Debates • Lecture 15: Final Exam

27. Some themes for the course • Overview of evolution of war • Role of technology in war • A look at military history in the Baltic Region • Historical experience shaping current debates– views on future conflict • Develop critical thinking– and expression – especially in papers

28. Final Goal • Understand the basics on evolution of conflict • Understand some basics as to role of technology in conflict • Understand some of the current thinking and development of Information War • Improve your ability to think critically • Improve your ability to express yourselves in English