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The year ahead

The global economy in 2012: a rocky road to recovery Grant Thornton International Business Report. The year ahead. recovery from financial crisis remains uncertain growth prospects in mature markets look weak emerging markets expected to drive the global economy

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The year ahead

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  1. The global economy in 2012: a rocky road to recoveryGrant Thornton International Business Report

  2. The year ahead • recovery from financial crisis remains uncertain • growth prospects in mature markets look weak • emerging markets expected to drive the global economy • shift in economic power from 'west to east' is speeding up.

  3. Business confidence • business confidence for the year ahead strong at the start of 2011, led by buoyant Latin America • in Q1, mature economies began to catch up but political, economic and natural unrest saw optimism slide in Q2 • by Q3 optimism had fallen to net 3% - its lowest since 2009.

  4. Business operations • expectations for revenues and profits rebounded strongly from 2010 • but expectations fell in Q3, with more businesses citing a shortage of orders/ reduced demand • bureaucracy an increasing constraint in emerging markets.

  5. Investment • expectations for investment in plant & machinery and buildings rose, but fell for R&D • plans for investment in emerging markets remain robust • inadequate ICT and transport infrastructure holding businesses in emerging markets back.

  6. Inflation • loose monetary policy and high commodity prices increasing inflationary pressures • percentage of businesses expecting to raise prices over next 12 months has risen • improved salary expectations, although few businesses expect to offer above inflation increases.

  7. Employment • hiring expectations improved from 2010, particularly in emerging markets • Q3 results point to a tightening in labour markets • lack of skilled workers dampening business growth prospects in emerging markets.

  8. Access to finance • financial constraints fell, following a sharp dip in 2010 • financing businesses less of an issue in mature markets, excluding troubled eurozone • lender support generally strong, with three-quarters of businesses citing lenders as supportive.

  9. Topical issues • the full report also contains stories on: • women in business • corporate social responsibility • Arab Spring • renewable energy • lease accounting • social media.

  10. More information • the full report is available on the IBR website • internationalbusinessreport.com/reports/2011 • for more information about IBR please contact Dominic King at GTIMarketing@gtinet.org

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