Forest Biometry, Modelling and Information Sciences (FBMIS) & the Forest Model Archive (FMA)

1. Forest Biometry, Modelling and Information Sciences(FBMIS)& the Forest Model Archive(FMA) Professor Keith Rennolls University of Greenwich

2. Stats and Models in Forestry • Distant history – Germany… India • Graphical methods for height-age, volume-age : Yield Tables • Statistics: The Origins • Galton, Pearson, Yule • Fisher 1925 …, Neyman-Pearson 1927, … • Yates (Census of Woodlands, 1942) • … etc … • Up to about 1965 … IUFRO 6.02 The Advisory Group of Forest Statisticians • Bertil Matern… Spatial Variation 1960 • John Jeffers…. • Experimental design and analysis in forest research 1960 • The electronic digital computer in forestry 1961 • Al Stage … TRAS growth simulation program 1962 • Prodan… Forest Biometrics 1968 • Paul Schmid-Haas… Edge Effects 1969 • Van Laar Growth modelling 1969 • Joe Christie Yield Tables The Red book …continued

3. …continued • After1970: The Modern Age. • John Jeffers, J.N.R. (Ed). 1972. Mathematical models in ecology. • Collier Dawkins’s Statforms 1975 • Alder … Tropical forest models • Bill Warren … Spatial and Temporal models in Forestry • Oscar Garcia … System-Dynamic Stand-Level Forest Models • Anniki Makela … Process Based Forest Modelling • Bob Monserud … Boreal and Temperate Forest Modelling, • PROGNOSIS and Forest-Vegetation-Simulator (FVS) • Jerry VanClay … Tropical Forest Management Models • … …Any many others… but currently probably only 200 Forest Biometricians, and possibly 400 in Mensuration Growth and Yield. …Quite specialized, quite small

4. Me & Forest Stats & Modelling • Forestry Commission… Statistics Branch …Alice Holt 1976-1985 • First IUFRO 6.02 Conference 1978 Frieburg • Warren, Matern, Prodan, Ek, … • About 1980…: Forest Modelling Discussion Group, FMDG. • IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.01 Office holder since 1990 • IUFRO DSA (Div. 4) 2005 • EU FIMP Indonesia 1996… • Tropical Forest: modelling, inventory, remote sensing, biodiversity…

5. Forest Biometrics and Modelling Publication Outlets • Forest Science • Canadian Journal of Forest Science • Forest Ecology and Management • Remote Sensing of the Environment • Ecological Modelling • Tropical Forest Ecology • Journal of Ecology … • Biometrics • “Commonwealth” Forestry Review • National Forestry Journals … e.g. Forestry … Only ever about 1 in 10 or 20 on Forest Biometrics and Modelling. • IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.03 Conference Proceedings • … Grey Literature • … “Black Hole” Literature?

6. IUFRO 4.11 Greenwich, 2001 Forest Biometry, Modelling and Information Science (FBMIS) • The Call • Why Information Science(s)? • 1. Fisher’s “Information Theory” • The Basis of Modern Inferential Statistics • 2. Shannon’s “InformationTheory” • A popular species diversity measure • 3. Information Systems • Storing and managing data and information • 4 Information Science • Librarianship … concerned with catalogues, keys, and restricted vocabularies… metadata … ontologies • 5. Forest Information Systems • Combining 3. and 4. : GFIS, EFIS, CFIS, NEFIS. …

7. The FBMIS Proceedings • The First IUFRO 4.11 web-proceedings Systems for Forest Information Conservation and Sharing (Chairs: Ibrahim and Paivenen) Risto Paivinen, Tim Richards, Nguyen Thanh Binh, Richard Wood , Margherita Sini (Invited paper)The IUFRO Global Forest Information Service Towards a Common Resource. Patrick D. Miles. USDA FS, St. Paul. Information Systems for the Forest Resource Analyst. Keith Rennolls , Moh Ibrahim and Peter Smith. University of Greenwich.A Forest Model Archive? Nell Baker and Howard Wright. University of OxfordThe UK Archive of Tropical Forest Inventory (ATROFI): conserving the data.  

8. The Forest Model Archive (FMA) • The FMA – a web portal : www.forestmodelarchive.info • The Full FMA Standards Specification The resources associated with a fully documented model in FMA are expected to include the following as the adopted STANDARD: A description of the theory of the model A listing of the code for the model algorithm The fitting criterion used The fitting algorithm used Test data, with metadata The results of fitting the model to the test data using the fitting algorithm • A new way to publish models

9. The FMA Aims • To Conserve Forest Models • To Enable easy re-use of Forest Models • Even for non-experts • Especially for the Developing World • A latter-day Stat-forms? • To Foster new forest model development • Particularly for Tropical Forests • For Remote-Sensing based Inventories • To Allow easy comparison of Models • On standard datasets • On new datasets • To Facilitate the building of new Hybrid models from previous models • To Engender international forest modelling collaboration

10. FMA “Challenges” • Modellers prefer to model rather than re-use another modeller’s model. • There is no kudos in re-use • Many of the established BIG Models have their own well supported web sites • FMA building is time-consuming and needs funding … • not easy! • FMA construction does not rate for RAE! • Only publications, funding and PhDs do. • An “Archive” as merely a repository of “dead models” does not capture its potential future contribution. • Something is needed in addition to indicate that the FMA is “State of the Art”

11. FBMIS: the e-journal(FBM & Information Sciences !) • ‘Parents’: • Absence of a Specialized Forest Biometrics and Modelling publication outlet • The FBMIS Conference Proceedings • All the “Black-Hole” Proceedings of the past • The FMA • FBMIS: www.fbmis.info

12. FBMIS 2003-4 • OSCAR GARCIADimensionality Reduction in Growth Models: an example. • ALMUTH WAMELING & JOACHIM SABOROWSKIConstruction of Local Confidence Intervals for Contour Lines. • GEORGE GERTNER • Assessment of Computationally Intensive Spatial Statistical Methods for Generating Inputs for Spatially Explicit Error Budgets. • ROBERT A. MONSERUDEvaluating Forest Models in a Sustainable Forest Management Context. • Special Invited PaperJOE LANDSBERG (Biography)Physiology in forest models: history and the future • Special Invited PaperTASITI SUZUKI (Biography)Gentan Probability and the Concept of the Normal Wood in the Wide Sense • Special Invited Paper JOHN JEFFERS (Biography)Whither biometrics? • ANDREW P. ROBINSON, AMY L. POCEWICZ, and PAUL E. GESSLERA Cautionary note on Scaling Variables that appear only in Products in Ordinary Least Squares • NICOLAS PICARD and ALAIN FRANCApproximating spatial interactions in a model of forest dynamics. • JEROME K VANCLAYIndicator Groups and Faunal Richness.

13. FBMIS “Challenges”? • The “Challenges” for the FBMIS • E-journals are not recognized as fully archival by some authorities • The main-stream journals have no publication charge • All the main journals are now on-line • FBMIS needs a funding line … currently there is a publication charge of £150 • Sponsorship is needed • Managing and Editing a journal is time-consuming • There is relatively little RAE credit for doing so.

14. FBMIS Future? • New Developments: • Special Issues… for IUFRO 4.01 conferences? • Web-conferences? • Index to On-line Biometrician Personal Archives? • e.g. Oscar Garcia & Jerry VanClay • Future Home, after Greenwich? • A main-stream publisher? • Other Institutions or Individuals? • IUFRO? FAO? CABI?

15. FMA & FBMIS final view • The FMA was the ‘parent’ of FBMIS • The FMA is now the ‘brother’ of FBMIS • FBMIS as a journal is archival by nature • The FMA is archival, but not only archival • The FMA is a publication venue of a multiple dimensions, with great creative potential • Maybe the future should be an FBMIS Portal, encompassing both the FBMIS e-journal, and the FMA?