A Perspective on NASA Ames Air Traffic Management Research

1. A Perspective on NASA Ames Air Traffic Management Research Jeffery A. Schroeder Federal Aviation Administration* * Formerly NASA Ames

3. Take-away • Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions • Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts • We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives

4. Plan • Past key contributions: • Traffic Management Advisor • Continuous descent arrivals in traffic • Direct-To • Present research: • Separation assurance • Broad sketches of the other research • Suggested future modifications: • Need more first-look operational evaluations • Need to resolve the vertical trajectory prediction conundrum

5. Past Key ContributionsTraffic Management Advisor SEA Seattle Minneapolis PDX Boston MSP BOS Salt Lake DTW Chicago Cleveland EWR Denver MDW Oakland ZNY ORD LGA PHL SLC SFO JFK Indy IAD DEN STL CVG Kansas City LAS TMA installed, metering achieved Washington Los Angeles CLT MEM Atlanta LAX PHX Memphis ATL Albuquerque DFW Jacksonville Fort Worth** MCO Houston Adjacent- center- metering sites IAH FLL Miami MIA NASA version Throughput increased by 3-5%

6. Past Key ContributionsContinuous Descent Arrivals in Traffic

7. Past Key ContributionsDirect-To 900 flying minutes saved a day at Ft. Worth Center*

8. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Voice Link Data Link Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Controller Interface

9. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Voice Link Data Link Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Controller Interface

10. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Cleveland Center New York Center Fort Worth Center

11. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Today’s operations Aircraft pairs Unique aircraft pairs Time (min)

12. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Automation detects, human resolves Unique aircraft pairs Aircraft pairs Time (min) Today’s operations Aircraft pairs Unique aircraft pairs Time (min) One controller doing work of 5 to 10 people. No loss of separation.

13. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance Emerging Cockpit Technologies + Traffic Alert & Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) TCAS Voice Link Data Link Safety Assurance (0-3 min time horizon) Trajectory Automation (2-20 min time horizon) Controller Interface

14. Present ResearchSeparation Assurance 69 Operational Errors NASA’s tactical safety assurance Alerts, % Today’s conflict alerting

15. Broad Sketches of the Other Research • Traffic flow management • Improving sector demand predictions • Translating weather for effective re-routing • Developed structure for deciding on proper controls • Investigating aircraft-by-aircraft and aggregate optimization • Developed framework for collaboration • Terminal area • Capacity increases with improved time-based scheduling • Alternatives for conflict detection and resolution in terminal area • Simulations of very closely spaced parallel approaches

16. Broad Sketches of the Other Research • Configuring airspace dynamically • Multiple algorithms used to draw geometries with a recent bakeoff showing Voronoi-genetic showing most promise • Examined combining under-utilized sectors in Cleveland showing a potential reduction of 40% in sector-hours • Airport surface • Optimizing surface flow showing 50% reductions in total taxi time • Real-time simulation investigated controller acceptability of precision-taxi operations

17. Broad Sketches of the Other Research • Trajectory prediction uncertainty • Developed framework for requirements, comparisons, and communication of trajectory engines • System-level analysis • Completed broad studies and have been integrating sets of two technologies (i.e., surface/terminal, TFM/separation)

18. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?*

19. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?* 20 ConOps To Commisioning (years) 10 ASDE-X STARS CPDLC WAAS LAAS (GBAS) *2004 GAO report

20. How Long for Deployment in the Airspace?* 20 ConOps To Commisioning (years) TMA 10 ASDE-X STARS CPDLC WAAS LAAS (GBAS) *2004 GAO report

21. Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors Mean = 240 ft σ = 2100 ft n = 1636 Flights Altitude prediction error, ft

22. Vertical Trajectory Prediction Errors Mean = 240 ft σ = 2100 ft n = 1636 Flights Altitude prediction error, ft

23. Trajectory Prediction Errors Current uncertainty in 5 mins 46,000 ft 8400 ft 43,000 ft

24. Trajectory Prediction Errors Current uncertainty in 5 mins Likely required uncertainty in 5 mins 30,000 ft 1000 ft 46,000 ft 8400 ft 30,000ft 43,000 ft

25. Summary • Accurate trajectory prediction sustained key past contributions • Present research has wide coverage, with separation assurance and traffic flow management being the top two thrusts • We need to enable more first-look operational evaluations to meet the NextGen objectives