Climate Information and Prediction for Adaptation and Food Security

1. GEO Work Plan Symposium 2011 DS-03 Climate Information

2. DS-03 Climate Information Definition Improve scientific understanding, modeling and prediction of climate. Improve accessibility of all the observational data needed for climate monitoring and services in support of adaptation to climate variability and change. Ensure the availability of all Essential Climate Variables needed by the WCRP, the IPCC and the UNFCCC (Climate Target) Improve operational weather/climate forecast systems for early warning and food security (Agriculture Strategic Target)

3. Deliverables • Extension and improvement of the climate record Priority Actions: • Support regional and international reanalysis efforts • Facilitate the recovery of historical terrestrial and marine global observations • Compile well-dated proxy-based paleo-climate records of seasonal to multi-decadal resolution over the last two millennia for the Arctic and all continents including the adjacent ocean regions

4. Priority Actions (cont’): • Produce regional-scale reconstructions of seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure fields • Compare climate reconstructions with the results of transient simulations of state-of-the-art General Circulation Models Leads (tentative): WCRP, IGBP, Japan, USA, ECMWF, GCOS

5. Deliverable 2. Weather, Climate, Earth-System Prediction Systems Priority Actions: • Continue to carry out the activities outlined in the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Implementation Plan (www.ucar.edu/yotc). • Further progress the objectives of the YOTC Task Force on the Madden Julian Oscillation (YOTC MJO TF) including further development of process oriented diagnostics/metrics that provide insight into the physical mechanisms for robust simulation of the MJO • Initiate the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project • Initiate the polar prediction project - see final meeting report at www.wmo.int/thorpex Leads (tentative): WMO, WCRP

6. Deliverables • A global climate information service Priority Actions: - Ensure the delivery of climate information needed for adaptation through the GEO Portal Build on existing climate services such as the US climate portal (climate.gov), WMO Climate Services Framework To be implemented in connection with IN-01 (GCI) Leads: TBC

7. Deliverables • Availability of Essential Climate Variables Priority Actions: • Accelerate the implementation of the Global Climate Observing System • Strengthen the climate-related functions and activities of global atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial observing systems Leads (tentative): GCOS, USA, CEOS

8. Related 2009-2011 Work Plan Progress

9. Long-Term Reanalysis for Climate Change Detection(Japan, USA, ECMWF, GCOS, WCRP) 20th Century Reanalysis Temperature Trend

10. New Research on Monsoon and Cyclones for Improved Seasonal Prediction (WCRP, WMO) • Most Complete 2-Year Record of Global Atmosphere • May 2008 – April 2010 • High-Res Analysis, Forecasts, Special Diagnostics • Data Freely Available

11. Tropical Cyclone Occurrence during YOTC Grace, heavy rainfall over Europe 3 landfalls in Mexico Nargis, landfall over Myanmar, huge storm surge, 100,000 lives El Nino modulation Ike - Largest size & Marko - smallest TC ever in this basin Parma, torrential rainfall Rick, 2nd strongest in E. Pacific ever (courtesy of Julian Hemming, UK Met Office)

12. The tropical atmosphere-ocean-land systems have never been so well observed. Modeling resources are rapidly improving. T-PARC New/Improved Resources • Satellite Observations (e.g., EOS) • In-Situ Networks (ARM, CEOP) • GOOS (e.g., TAO, PRADA, drifters) • IOPs (e.g., VOCALS, T-PARC, AMY) • High-Resolution Deterministic Forecast Models & Global Analyses • Research e.g., regional to global Cloud-system Resolving Models (CRM), theoretical-dynamical models

13. Summary of Highlights* YOTCScience Plan published - WMO Bulletin & WMO Tech Doc* YOTC Implementation Plan on website www.ucar.edu/yotc* ECMWF T799 archive completed (May ‘08-Apr ’10), ported to NCAR * NCEP and NASA GMAO archiving continues* YOTC Project Office at NCAR funded by NSF, NOAA, NASA* NASA Goddard Giovanni system (YOTC-GS) completed* YOTC sessions at AGU and AMS meetings in 2008,2009, 2010, 2011* ~ 100 YOTC presentations at various venues * YOTC in Compendium WCC-3* 2 papers submitted to BAMS * Paper on weather-climate intersection published in AGU book* Outstanding advances with MJO: dynamics; parameterized, super-parameterized & explicit convection * Research outreach and collaboration planned or underwayYOTC International Science Symposium Beijing 16-19 May 2011 – hosted by CMA and the CAS.

14. Launch of Earth-System Prediction Initiative (WMO, WCRP, IGBP, ICSU)

15. Re-organization of 2009-2011 Sub-tasks (i.e. which sub-tasks support the new Task) AR-09-03a) Global Terrestrial Observations AR-09-03b) Legacy of the International Polar Year AR-09-03c) Global Ocean Observation System AR-09-03d) Global Observing System (GOS) CL-06-01a) Sustained Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Climate Data CL-06-01b) Extending the Record of Climate Variability at Global Scale CL-09-01a) Towards Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water Prediction CL-09-01b) Climate Information for Decision-making, Risk Management and Adaptation CL-09-02a) Key Observations for Climate (GCOS) CL-09-02b) Key Climate Data from Satellite Systems

16. Inclusion of New Proposals • Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction (WMO/WCRP) • Polar prediction programme (WMO/WCRP)

17. Resources Available for Implementation (current status and in planning) • YOTC Programme Office • Participating Organisations and Universities (research)

18. Issues and Gaps • In terms of climate prediction, it needs to formulate and initiate the polar and seasonal activities for the weather and climate prediction system. Workshops have identified key actions these now need to be taken forward. • Global observations (ECVs) will be represented across the Work Plan

19. Issues and Gaps • On the climate information service, it is suggested that the term of ‘service’ would be replaced by ‘system’ to make the deliverable be more specific and explicit, and to avoid the duplication with other initiatives. • Potentially, the 5th deliverable can be suggested with the title of “Climate Change Adaptation Measure”.