SKADS Simulations (DS2 team)

1. SKADS Simulations (DS2 team) Credit: Obreschkow z = 1-1.1 • Box size: 500 h-1 Mpc (or ~700 Mpc) of which this is about 5-millionths of the corresponding sky area: ALMA & SKA both essential to study galaxies, but only SKA can generate the ‘billion-galaxy’ redshift surveys to probe the underlying cosmology

2. Abdalla, Blake & Rawlings (2009) 1 yr 20,000 deg2 A fundamental experiment and not just dark energy (e.g. neutrino masses) Abdalla & Rawlings (2007) Large scales • If Smnis ~0.05 eV, SKA+Planck sufficient and necessary to measure it. With particle physics experiments, prospect of evidence for sterile neutrinos or time evolution of neutrino mass. But all based on `perfect’ (10 catalogue) SKA survey: no longer adequate

3. All downloadable s-cubed.physics.ox.ac.uk will only discuss a sub-set: thanks to Matt Jarvis for some slides

4. Two types of SKADS extragalactic simulations • ‘Line’ semi-analytic approach (Obreschkow PhD): SAX.DM haloes from Millennium Simulation. Ascribed HI and H2, star formation rates and AGN properties via physical prescriptions: provides insufficient FOV for SKADS benchmark 4x4 deg2 out to z~20 (HI/CO) ~107objects star-formation continuum OK AGN continuum still under development • ‘Continuum’ semi-empirical approach (Wilman):SEX. DM density field evolved under linear theory, populated with objects from known radio luminosity functions, and with other important physics (e.g. non-linear structures, source models) `pasted on’ • currently 20x20 deg2 out to z~20 , ~2.5x108 simulated sources

5. z=2 z=0 500 M/pc2 H2 Obreschkow & Rawlings, 2009, ApJ , 696L, 129 HI Obreschkow & Rawlings, 2009, MNRAS, in press, arXiv:0908.0724 80 kpc

6. Application : dN/dz predictions for SKA and ALMA Obreschkow et al. (2009b), ApJ, 702, 1321 Obreschkow et al. 2009c, ApJ,703, 1890

7. SKA, not ALMA, can do many deg2 Abdalla & Rawlings Obreschkow et al No evolution • In ~100 days,phased arrays deliver >109 galaxies over ~20,000 deg2 to z~2(and multiple P(k) to at least z~1)

8. At z~0.1,1.4 h-1 com- kpc/arcsec • 500 h-1 Mpc (log[k]=-1.9), 100 deg, z~0.15 • 100 h-1 Mpc (log[k]=-1.2), 20 degrees • 30 h-1 Mpc (-0.67), 6 degrees • Green curve: 20 arcmin (~1Mpc) resolution. • 3 arcmin resolution only needs ~250m baselines. • ASKAP will measure bias and detect BAOs: first time in HI The Power Spectrum at z~0.1

9. Science with sub-phase-I AAs log(k) -0.7 to -1.6 k=0.2 down to 0.025 Key information comes from baselines below ~250 m 1% SKA with “just” 10 deg2 (and long baselines) is overkill Can measure same P(k) as ASKAP (if in same hemisphere) with sub-phase-1 AA SKAs provided it can be calibrated, and ‘foregrounds’ removed Science demonstration: <1% AAs can detect BAOs 1 yr 20,000 deg2 Abdalla, Blake & Rawlings (2009) MNRAS in press, arXiv:0905.4311 2000 m2 (Tsys~50 K) with ~250 deg2 FOV, max baseline < 1km split into ~9-15 stations - to be filled out to high filling factor by phase-I (analog/digital P&P) Phase-1 (~10,000 m2) can get to z~0.7

10. Semi-Empirical eXtragalactic S3-SEX Simulation Starting point: a z=0 (δρ/ρ)DM linear theory dark matter density field defined on a 550x550x1500 grid of 5 Mpc/h cells Cosmology: H0=70 km/s/Mpc, ΩM=0.3, ΩΛ=0.7, σ8=0.74, BAO P(k) Wilman et al. (2008) - MNRAS

11. Semi-Empirical eXtragalactic S3-SEX Simulation Redshift ΔΩ ith cell, redshift zi In the ith cell, for each source population: • Poisson sample the LF at L > Li •In the limit (δρ/ρ)→0, (δn/n) → b(z)G(z)(δρ/ρ) (i.e. a linear bias model) Wilman et al. (2008)

12. Continuum source populations Radio-quiet AGN: Mhalo = 3x1012/h M FRI radio sources: Mhalo = 1x1013/h M FRII radio sources: Mhalo = 1x1014/h M Normal SF galaxies:Mhalo = 1x1011/h M Starburst galaxies: Mhalo = 5x1013/h M Wilman et al. (2008)

13. S3-SEX Example Use

14. Facilities for the next decade SDSS1-2 Pan-STARRS SDSS-3 SkyM DES LSST Optical Now  2009  2010  2011 2017  UKIDSSVISTA JWSTELT Near-IR Now  2009  2013  2020 SpitzerSCUBA2HerschelWISE ALMA Mid/Far-IR Now  2009  2009  2010  2012 eMerlin LOFAR EVLA KAT/ASKAPSKA Radio 2010  2010  2013  2020

15. Facilities for the next decade SDSS1-2 Pan-STARRS SDSS-3 SkyM DES LSST Optical Now  2009  2010  2011 2017  UKIDSSVISTA JWSTELT Near-IR Now  2009  2013  2020 SpitzerSCUBA2HerschelWISE ALMA Mid/Far-IR Now  2009  2009  2010  2012 eMerlin LOFAR EVLA KAT/ASKAPSKA Radio 2010  2010  2013  2020

16. 50 25 11 24 45 16 Herschel surveys relevant to SKA science 3.5m primary Launched in April 2009 Continuum capabilities from 70-550 microns

17. HerMES+PEP(the usual deep fields) GOODS North / HDF North GOODS South CDFS ECDFS Lockman wide & deep Extended Groth Strip Bootes XMM/VVDS SWIRE fields (EN1, EN2, ES1) Spitzer-FLS AKARI SEP Courtesy of S. Oliver

18. Herschel-ATLAS Aim is to survey ~550 deg2 with Herschel at 110, 170, 250, 350 and 550mm. (600hrs allocated) • Local(ish) Galaxies • Planck synergies • Efficient lens survey • Rare object science • Large-scale structure • Clusters • Galactic science These will all be completed by 2012, so we can use them (and other wavelength surveys) to feed into the SKA sky simulations and give us a better picture of the SKA-sky

19. Herschel-ATLAS Aim is to survey ~550sq.deg with Herschel at 110, 170, 250, 350 and 550mm. (600hrs allocated) • Local(ish) Galaxies • Planck synergies • Efficient lens survey • Rare object science • Large-scale structure • Clusters • Galactic science But for now we go from the SKADS radio simulation to predict what Spitzer and Herschel have and will see…

20. Wilman et al. (2009) • Baseline model • Starbursts follow FIR-radio correlation • AGN given distribution in torus properties with FIR emission scaled with L(AGN)

21. Wilman et al. (2009) • Baseline model • Starbursts follow FIR-radio correlation • AGN given distribution in torus properties with FIR emission scaled with L(AGN)

22. Wilman et al. (2009) • Modification 1 • Starbursts follow FIR-radio correlation • Evolution was PLE in a E-dS Cosmology. • Use new prescription of PLE in -Cosmology for the 70 m population (Huynh et al. 2007)

23. Wilman et al. (2009) • Modification 1 • Starbursts follow FIR-radio correlation • Evolution was PLE in a E-dS Cosmology. • Use new prescription of PLE in -Cosmology for the 70um population (Huynh et al. 2007)

24. Wilman et al. (2009) • Modification 2 • New evidence suggests that higher-z sources have cooler SEDs (e.g. Symeonidis et al. 2009; peak of the thermal dust emission moves to longer wavelengths) • Results in a very slight modification to the FIR-radio relation

25. Mid-infrared redshift distributions Wilman et al. (2009)

26. Far-IR redshift distributions Wilman et al. (2009) 35 mJy

27. Predictions for Herschel Surveys Wilman et al. (2009) 250 m

28. Final Words • DS2-T1 Simulated Skies (continuum, lines, polarization, pulsars) are available and being used by multi-waveband astronomers: http://s-cubed.physics.ox.ac.uk • DS2-T2 Data Simulation tools (e.g. MeqTrees, OSKAR) are available as packaged software products • End-to-end simulations for early phases of SKA now underway (and for full SKA on s/computer) • High filling factor mid-frequency AA (~1% SKAs) have the potential to do really important HI science; science and technical precursors for AAs • ASKAP has run process defining Survey Science for dish precursors: MeerKAT, LoIs by March 2010 • Efforts to coordinate with science of ALMA/E-ELT May 10-14 (Crete)