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Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

Miho Iwasawa Ryuichi Kaneko National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo Contributors: Kenji Kamata, James Raymo , Kimiko Tanaka. EXPLANATIONS FOR REGIONAL FERTILITY REVERSAL AFTER 2005 IN JAPAN: DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL FACTORS.

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Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections

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  1. Miho Iwasawa Ryuichi Kaneko National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Tokyo Contributors: Kenji Kamata, James Raymo , Kimiko Tanaka EXPLANATIONS FOR REGIONAL FERTILITY REVERSAL AFTER 2005 IN JAPAN:DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL FACTORS Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections April 28 – 30, 2010, Lisbon, Portugal

  2. Motivations and questions • Recent fertility reversal in countries which experienced lowest-low fertility (TFR<1.3)(Goldstein et al. 2009) • Japanese total fertility rate also increased after 2005 • 1.36 in 2000 -> 1.26 in 2005 -> 1.37 in 2008 • How can we interpret this change?

  3. Lowest-low fertility (LLF) in Sothern and Eastern Europe, and East Asia • Postponed childbearing (tempo effect) • Absence of high-fertility sub-population • Low-growth economy • Increasing opportunity cost and incompatibility of work and familial obligations • Cultural settings (Familistic welfare regime) (Kohler, Billari, and Ortega2002 ,Frejka and Westoff 2008, Perelli-Harris 2005, Zuanna and Micheli 2004, Reher 2007, McDonald 2006 )

  4. Explanations for recent upturn in European LLF countries (1) Diminishing tempo effects (end of postponement) (2) Increase in immigrants (3) Economic improvement (4) Policy improvement (5) Familistic culture (negatively associated with fertility reversal (Italy) ) Castiglioni and Dalla Zuanna(2008), Billari (2008) , Goldstein, Sobotka and Jasilioniene (2009)

  5. Methods • Ecological regression model explaining the prefectural (state) level variations of fertility change after 2005 (N=47)

  6. Methods • Weighted least squares model (WLS) • Weight: female population in reproductive ages (15-49) • Weighted spatial error model (WSE) (Anselin 1988 ) • Spatial autocorrelation among neighboring model residuals is explicitly specified in the model

  7. OLS and Spatial error model OLS model Y = XB + e Spatial error model Y =XB + u Y = XB + λWu + e e~i.i.d. N(0, s2I) Univariate Spatial Autocorrelation Structural Similarity → Spatial Error Effects → Spatial Process W: weight matrix for the neighborhood structure Baller et al. (2001)

  8. How to define neighbors for weight matrix? First order queen convention Islands are connected with the nearest and historically tied prefectures.

  9. Models ΔTFR (2005-2008) = Constant + (1)Δ Late fertility (2005-2008) + (2)ΔTFR inflated by foreign mothers (2005-2008) + (3)Δ Employment rate (2002-2007) + (4)Δ Labor force participation rate among mothers having preschool children living in a nuclear family (2002-2007) + (5)Proportion of extended families among households including preschool children (fixed effect) (2005) (+ spatial term λWu)

  10. TFR increase in Japan

  11. Explanatory variables ΔLate fertility ΔForeign mothers ΔEmployment rate ΔMLFP Extended family households

  12. Change in 1st order TFR

  13. Change in 2nd order TFR

  14. Selected models

  15. Predicted values of national TFR increase by selected models

  16. Variances of TFR change explained by the selected model and contribution by each factor

  17. TFR increase explained by spatial term in the spatial error model • “Hot spot” clusters (area surrounded by neighbors with high TFR increase) • Advantageous conditions for fertility behaviors • Adoption/diffusion? Social competition or social emulation mechanism? Grouping responses?

  18. Fertility upturn in Japan can be explained by Elimination of tempo effect ? - Yes Increase in foreign mothers ? - Yes Economic improvement ? - Yes for 1st order TFR Policy improvement on work/family reconciliation ? - No Familistic culture is negatively associated with TFR change? - Yes for low-parity birth - No for high-parity birth Summary of results

  19. Downturn in international marriages and recession in the past several years may have negative impact? Discussions- Fertility increase will continue?

  20. Discussions- Fertility increase will continue? Will “catching up” fertility behavior of women who deferred childbearingbecome commonplace? 20 Hazard rates of childbearing based on cohort fertility trajectory Calendar year

  21. Discussions- Fertility increase will continue? Whether catch-up behavior is followed by subsequent generations depends on working conditions of older mothers Over half of mothers whose children were on the waiting list for day-care eventually gave up re-entering employment in the metropolitan area(11.16. 2009). Firing due to pregnancy or taking parental leave dramatically increased (12. 25. 2009)

  22. Thank you

  23. Late fertility 23

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