Climate Change Adaptation and Governance

1. Climate Change Adaptationand Governance Isagani R. Serrano PRRM President Presentation at the Miriam-ESI Seminar 30 May 2011 ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

2. Adapting to climate change • Changing from business as usual to adjust to climate change and variability • Assessing vulnerabilities and capacities • What’s our adaptive capacity level---HIGH, MEDIUM, LOW? • HIGH adaptive capacity means (UNDP): >a stable and prosperous economy; >a high degree of access to technology at all levels; >well-delineated roles and responsibilities for implementation of adaptation strategies; >systems in place for the national, regional and local dissemination of climate change and adaptation information; and >an equitable distribution of access to resources. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

3. Governance • Transparency – open book, freedom of information • Accountability – deliver on your promises, face the consequences of your decisions • Predictability - governed by rules, not arbitrary • Participation – governance much too big to be left to government alone ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

4. Climate crisis as bad governance Beneath every crisis, bad governance. • Outright violation of rules and principles • Reneging on commitments • Unregulated market forces • Lowering environmental safeguards and standards. • Word not matched by action. • Poor implementation, poor outcomes. • Ignoring people, local communities. • Inefficiency, corruption, lack of accountability. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

5. What we’re adapting to… ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

6. Too big to govern? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

7. Over 40 billion of this up there. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

8. How on earth can this be done? • 47 billion tons of CO2 up for reduction • Must peak by 2015 • Must come down to 44 billion by 2020 • Down to under 35 billion by 2030 • Further down to below 20 billion by 2050 • For a 50:50 chance to keep GW at <2°C • Numbers are from Sir Nicholas Stern, British MP and economist. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

9. Skeptics don’t buy it ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

10. Who really knows for sure? • Both CC believers and skeptics agree there’s global warming, thus the need to adapt. • Even with the best knowledge, we know only so much about how nature will behave. • But we do know humanity had done itself and nature a great injustice, and we know what needs to change. • And justice is at the heart of the climate issue. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

11. Decision scenarios • Do nothing, more-of-the-same, or business-as-usual (BAU) • More economic (A) or more environmental (B); and global (1) or regional (2). Differing assumptions on population growth. • Four storylines and several combinations: e.g., A1 is economic/global; B1 environmental/global; A2 economic/regional; B2 environmental/regional. • There are 40 such scenarios and timelines of 100 years which mean nothing if you’re worried about what to grow or harvest tomorrow. • Need to be downscaled to be useful to local communities. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

12. Principles to go by • Common but differentiated responsibilities – we’re all responsible but some must answer for more. • Polluters pay – if you pollute you pay, if you pollute more you pay more. • Precautionary – if you’re not sure about the impact and consequences of what you do, don’t. • Sustainable development—that which meets needs of both present & future generations. ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

13. To what end? happiness? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

14. Governance can’t miss this ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

15. How we know we’re getting there? • Indicators are ‘signs’ that tell us where/how things are moving: baselines, endpoints, and milestones in between • Design your own, based on what you value most. • References: Human Development Index (HDI), Millennium Development Goals (MDG), human rights indicators, minimum basic needs (MBN), community-based monitoring system (CBMS), quality of life index (QLI), sustainable development indicators (SDI) • How to make CCA and governance indicators compatible? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

16. Addressing our vulnerabilities • POVERTY: more poor people now than when we set off on the MDG track in 2001 • INEQUALITY: rich getting richer, wealth generated by growth enjoyed mostly by the rich • CONTINUING ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION: >despite good laws, eg, on ecological waste mgt, clean air, clean water, RE, climate & DRR, organic agriculture, etc. >despite expansion of forest cover (‘net green’) ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

17. How do we manage this? • Two typhoons w/in one month in 2009 left the Philippines with: about 1000 dead, thousands homeless, a damage totaling US$4.38 billion or 206 B pesos. Annual average of direct damage (1970-2006)---about US$305 million or 15 B pesos. A baseline of reconstruction, not development. • How much change can we endure---1°, 2°, 3° C---and for how long? How many super typhoons and floods can we survive, and at what cost? What would it take to adjust to CC impacts? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

18. Governance…as if climate matters • Governance for sustainable development • Governance of commons (climate, oceans) & common goods (education, health, peace & security) • Resource governance/management: Regeneration of depleted resources & reduction of CO2 emissions/pollution • Integrating Agenda 21 & MDGs into plans & budgets at the national & local levels ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

19. Lessons from PA21 • Philippine Agenda 21 – translation of global Agenda 21 (Rio Earth Summit 1992) into a national sustainability plan in the long, medium, and short (annual) terms • Philippine Council for Sustainable Development (PCSD) to oversee PA21 implementation ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

20. Lessons from PA21 • MTPDP, annual GAA, investment & national expenditure plans, AS USUAL • Policy incoherence: >PA21 and MTPDP and SONA ‘marching orders’ not in sync; >policy-action gap; >‘money not where the mouth is’ • No connection between PA21 and local development plans ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

21. Lesson from PA21 • Institutional issues: >PCSD ---overseeing what? PCSD=NEDA? >PCSD---a super Cabinet? >PCSD---a talking shop? >PCSD---just one more of the same platforms for non-state actor participation? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

22. Lessons from MDGs • Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – Millennium Summit 2000, Millennium Declaration, a ‘synthesis’ of international commitments to protect HR and enlarge freedoms • MDGs: a commitment to end global poverty • MDGs: 8 goals, 18 targets, 48 indicators (more targets & indicators added later) ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

23. Lessons from MDG • MTPDP ---MDG-insensitive, basically an economic growth plan • MDG-insensitive SONAs • MDG-insensitive GAAs • After nearly a decade under one regime: MORE POOR FILIPINOS THAN WHEN WE STARTED ON THE MDGs ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

24. Lessons from MDGs • Official MDG Reports – consistently rosy & hardly self-critical • Shadow Reports 1993, 1995, 1997 (Midterm 7.7.7.), 2010 (MDG+10)---Social Watch Philippines • MDG10 Shadow Report ---critical baseline for consideration in planning and budgeting ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

25. And now…CCA • Urgent task: ADAPTATION PLAN >Strategy Framework by April 2010 >National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) by October 2010 >Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP) starting 2010 • CCC (Climate Change Commission) = NEDA+? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

26. CCA & MTPDP • Philippine Strategy Framework and Action Plan on Climate Change: >addressing vulnerabilities & risks, >building high adaptive capacity >toward achieving sustainable development • NAPCC as MTPDP or NAPCC as guide template for MTPDP? ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

27. Integrating MDGs and CCA into national development Addressing the dilemma of “Growth without development” Poverty-and-climate-sensitive plans and budgets: • Ensuring basic capabilities: universal education & health care • Ensuring food security through sustainable agriculture, forestry, fisheries • Green jobs and full employment • Shifting to renewable/sustainable energy systems. • Clean production and clean consumption (full cycle greening) • Ecological waste management • Population levels consistent with carrying capacity • Community participation in addressing environmental problems and finding local solutions • People’s participation at all levels • Budgeting and financing enough for these priorities ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

28. Minding the budget ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar

29. Or else… ganiserrano/prrm miriam-esi seminar